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Merlin
(NASDAQ:MRLN)
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Rating:43Neutral
Price Target:
$1.50
▼(-55.22% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/09/26
The score is driven primarily by weak financial performance (zero revenue, negative cash generation, and questionable earnings quality despite a stronger debt-free balance sheet) and very bearish technicals (price far below key moving averages with oversold momentum). Valuation provides limited support because negative earnings make the P/E non-informative and no dividend yield is available.
Positive Factors
Debt-Free Balance Sheet
Zero reported debt reduces interest obligations and near-term refinancing exposure, giving the company more financial flexibility than in 2024. If maintained, this conservative leverage profile could improve resilience and preserve capacity for operational investment or restructuring over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Revenue Collapse
Revenue falling to zero indicates that the company currently lacks visible operating scale and has experienced a major disruption or business-model reset. Without a durable revenue stream, it is difficult to sustain operations, rebuild margins, or fund growth internally over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Debt-Free Balance Sheet
Zero reported debt reduces interest obligations and near-term refinancing exposure, giving the company more financial flexibility than in 2024. If maintained, this conservative leverage profile could improve resilience and preserve capacity for operational investment or restructuring over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Merlin (MRLN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$121.28M
Dividend Yield2.43%
Average Volume (3M)3.25M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.71
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS Growth-1499.25%
CountryUS
Employees3
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.63
Shares Outstanding101,067,790
10 Day Avg. Volume2,820,467
30 Day Avg. Volume3,246,004
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.52
Price to Book (P/B)1.41
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-266.26
Enterprise Value/Market Cap4.13
Enterprise Value/Revenue156.56
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-937.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-4.18
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.92Price Target Upside136.32% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)-2.63
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.31M
Merlin Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Merlin, Inc. is a US-based developer of cost-effective, takeoff-to-touchdown autonomy for both legacy and next-generation airborne systems. Its aircraft-agnostic, AI-powered software is purpose-built for military and civil programs and is powering...
Merlin Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
21
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2020 | Dec 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.20M | 0.00 | 1.23M | 1.00M | 102.30M | 141.62M |
| Gross Profit | -534.00K | 0.00 | -7.27M | 268.00K | 102.30M | 141.62M |
| EBITDA | -119.74M | 6.01M | -50.44M | -33.66M | 20.67M | 65.95M |
| Net Income | -147.56M | 6.01M | -55.25M | -36.46M | 342.00K | 27.12M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 206.98M | 263.15M | 49.19M | 62.41M | 1.02B | 594.76M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 183.87M | 703.60K | 37.57M | 51.03M | 141.66M | 136.02M |
| Total Debt | 2.19M | 0.00 | 37.26M | 3.81M | 39.37M | 85.82M |
| Total Liabilities | 144.41M | 12.08M | 180.72M | 140.49M | 825.63M | 992.49M |
| Stockholders Equity | 62.57M | 251.07M | -131.52M | -78.07M | 196.37M | 214.96M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -89.68M | -1.33M | -47.44M | -36.54M | -328.47M | -760.07M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -85.54M | -1.33M | -45.54M | -31.70M | 59.99M | 62.42M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.09M | 0.00 | -1.69M | -4.87M | 117.15M | -38.04M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 269.57M | -75.00K | 33.94M | -2.51M | -166.76M | -5.55M |
Merlin Technical Analysis
Negative
3.35
Price Trends
2.80
Negative
4.18
Negative
7.13
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.44
Negative
27.16
Positive
8.50
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MRLN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.35 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.71, above the 50-day MA of 2.80, and below the 200-day MA of 7.13, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.44 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 27.16 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.50 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MRLN.
Merlin Risk Analysis
Merlin disclosed 92 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Merlin reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Merlin Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
MRLN
Merlin
1.29
-9.59
-88.14%
TACH
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10.54
0.36
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WENN
Wen Acquisition Corp Class A
10.43
0.23
2.21%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.