Modiv Inc. Class C (MDV)
NYSE:MDV
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Modiv
(NYSE:MDV)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$19.00
▲(18.90% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
MDV scores as moderately attractive: recurring cash generation and a high dividend are key supports, reinforced by the merger announcement as a positive catalyst. Offsetting these are pressured revenue/profitability trends, balance-sheet history of elevated leverage (despite better near-term debt maturity/rate positioning discussed on the call), and overextended technical momentum signals that elevate near-term volatility risk.
Positive Factors
Net‑lease industrial focus
Modiv’s business model centers on single-tenant net‑leased industrial properties where tenants typically pay taxes, insurance and maintenance. That structure produces predictable, contractually backed cash flows and lowers property‑level expense volatility, supporting durable NOI and dividend coverage over multiple years.
Negative Factors
Revenue and profit volatility
Top‑line weakness and swingy profitability are structural concerns: a steep TTM revenue decline (~19%) and transitions from profit to a small loss indicate demand and leasing timing sensitivity. Persistent revenue pressure constrains organic growth, limits AFFO expansion and raises reliance on asset sales to hit cash targets.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Net‑lease industrial focus
Modiv’s business model centers on single-tenant net‑leased industrial properties where tenants typically pay taxes, insurance and maintenance. That structure produces predictable, contractually backed cash flows and lowers property‑level expense volatility, supporting durable NOI and dividend coverage over multiple years.
Read all positive factors
Modiv (MDV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$189.85M
Dividend Yield8.15%
Average Volume (3M)99.88K
Price to Earnings (P/E)1247.8
Beta (1Y)0.39
Revenue Growth-0.62%
EPS Growth-380.05%
CountryUS
Employees12
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Industrial
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.40
Shares Outstanding10,323,670
10 Day Avg. Volume60,757
30 Day Avg. Volume99,882
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.61
Price to Book (P/B)0.90
Price to Sales (P/S)3.15
P/FCF Ratio10.09
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.44
Enterprise Value/Revenue10.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit36.75
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.35
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$18.33Price Target Upside14.73% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.09
Revenue Forecast (FY)$46.54M
Modiv Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Modiv Industrial, Inc. functions as a self-managed Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) with a core focus on acquiring industrial manufacturing properties under single-tenant, net-lease agreements. The company strategically invests in crucial produ...
How the Company Makes Money
Modiv makes money primarily by acquiring commercial properties and leasing them to tenants under net lease structures. Its core revenue stream is rental income collected from tenants pursuant to long-term lease contracts, which is recognized over ...
Modiv Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presents a balanced picture: operationally the company maintained liquidity, fixed its interest costs (100% hedged at a 4.15% weighted average), avoided near-term maturities and has an active, articulated plan to recycle non-core office assets into manufacturing industrial properties. However, near-term headwinds include a roughly 6% decline in rental income, pressure on AFFO per share driven by share issuance (-13.5%), increased reported interest expense from swap amortization, short WALTs and a cautious transaction market that complicates disposition/redeployment timing. Management conveyed confidence in executing the 24-month transformation plan and highlighted meaningful buyer interest, but acknowledged current market volatility and tax-sensitive constraints on certain large assets.Positive Updates
Liquidity and Available Capital
Total cash and cash equivalents of $14.4 million and $30 million available to draw on revolver as of December 31, 2025, providing near-term liquidity for operations and transactions.
Negative Updates
Decline in Rental Income
Fourth quarter rental income was $11.0 million versus $11.7 million in the prior-year quarter, a decline of approximately $0.7 million (~6.0%), driven in part by lease expirations (Costco at Issaquah and Solar Turbines in San Diego).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Liquidity and Available Capital
Total cash and cash equivalents of $14.4 million and $30 million available to draw on revolver as of December 31, 2025, providing near-term liquidity for operations and transactions.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance and metrics included Q4 rental income of $11.0M (down from $11.7M) and AFFO of $4.0M (down from $4.1M), with AFFO per share falling to $0.32 from $0.37 after a 1.7M increase in diluted shares; the AFFO change reflected a $554k decline in cash rents partially offset by $299k lower cash interest, $138k lower preferred dividends, $40k lower property expenses and $15k lower G&A, while GAAP interest expense was $1.1M higher due to amortization of off‑market swaps. Balance‑sheet and liquidity metrics: cash and cash equivalents $14.4M, $30M available on the revolver, consolidated debt $262.1M (including $250M drawn on a $280M credit facility and a $12.1M consolidated mortgage; a separate $12.1M mortgage on Santa Clara was unconsolidated), no debt maturities until July 2028 after the Jan‑2026 facility extension, and 100% of indebtedness fixed at a weighted‑average rate of 4.15% based on a 45.1% leverage ratio. Transaction outlook: management said asset recycling will pick up (aiming for a 100% pure‑play manufacturing portfolio in ~24 months, potentially ~12 months in a rosier market), expects to market the San Diego flex/office (estimated ~$7–8M) after a lot split, is being patient on a ~$70M Kia non‑core asset to enable 1031 rollover, has a Melbourne, FL office sale slated to close in Q2 with ~$400k of deposited/earned money, noted the January Kalera sale produced a tax loss to shelter gains, observed an internal NAV of $22.19 (implying ~6.8% cap) and market cap‑rate chatter of roughly 6.75%–7.5%, and reiterated the $0.10/share per month dividend (≈$1.20 annualized) will not be cut.Modiv Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
57
Neutral
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 46.30M | 46.39M | 46.76M | 47.23M | 43.82M | 37.89M |
| Gross Profit | 12.60M | 12.75M | 43.15M | 42.07M | 37.27M | 31.01M |
| EBITDA | 32.27M | 33.19M | 42.47M | 24.36M | 18.04M | 22.56M |
| Net Income | 152.00K | 1.07M | 6.02M | -6.61M | -3.29M | -435.50K |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 484.28M | 476.46M | 507.83M | 530.90M | 454.43M | 428.49M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.48M | 14.38M | 11.53M | 3.13M | 8.61M | 55.97M |
| Total Debt | 280.26M | 268.55M | 279.90M | 279.73M | 196.01M | 184.08M |
| Total Liabilities | 286.57M | 274.41M | 293.78M | 305.77M | 213.40M | 206.06M |
| Stockholders Equity | 159.31M | 162.75M | 190.15M | 144.44M | 159.75M | 171.83M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 15.88M | 14.46M | 18.24M | 16.58M | 16.65M | 9.53M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 16.02M | 14.97M | 18.24M | 16.58M | 16.65M | 9.73M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 20.70M | 27.80M | 8.39M | -93.60M | -61.06M | 21.83M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -38.41M | -39.92M | -18.23M | 71.54M | -5.38M | 18.47M |
Modiv Technical Analysis
Positive
15.98
Price Trends
16.63
Positive
15.62
Positive
14.79
Positive
Market Momentum
0.44
Positive
65.08
Neutral
65.18
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MDV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 15.98 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.09, below the 50-day MA of 16.63, and above the 200-day MA of 14.79, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.44 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 65.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.18 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MDV.
Modiv Risk Analysis
Modiv disclosed 61 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Modiv reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Modiv Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $534.04M | -168.16 | -0.64% | 5.74% | ― | ― | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
63 Neutral | $189.85M | 1,247.75 | 0.09% | 8.15% | -0.62% | -380.05% | |
49 Neutral | $23.37M | 1.96 | -20.24% | 2.06% | 7.90% | ― | |
44 Neutral | $5.30M | -0.28 | -38.08% | 86.42% | -10.82% | 38.13% | |
43 Neutral | $1.34M | -0.14 | -1149.68% | ― | -0.48% | -12.66% | |
43 Neutral | $3.18M | -0.29 | -27.98% | ― | -12.44% | 37.60% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
MDV
Modiv
18.39
4.91
36.40%
MDRR
Medalist Diversified REIT
11.70
0.21
1.84%
GIPR
Generation Income Properties
0.20
-1.28
-86.22%
SQFT
Presidio Property Trust
2.22
-2.33
-51.21%
FVR
FrontView REIT, Inc.
18.99
8.19
75.83%
MKZR
MacKenzie Realty Capital, Inc.
2.35
-5.61
-70.48%
Modiv Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesM&A Transactions
Modiv to Merge with Global Net Lease in All-Stock Deal
Positive
May 4, 2026
On May 3, 2026, Modiv Industrial and its operating partnership entered into a definitive merger agreement with Global Net Lease and its affiliates under which Modiv will merge into a GNL subsidiary in an all-stock transaction valued at about $535 ...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Modiv Industrial Explores Strategic Alternatives Amid Portfolio Recycling
Positive
Mar 25, 2026
Modiv Industrial, the only public REIT dedicated exclusively to industrial manufacturing real estate, reported fourth-quarter 2025 net income attributable to common stockholders of $0.4 million and AFFO of $4.0 million, while full-year 2025 result...
DividendsFinancial Disclosures
Modiv Industrial Announces Q4 2025 Results Schedule, Dividends
Positive
Mar 19, 2026
Modiv Industrial, Inc., a NYSE-listed, internally managed REIT, specializes in acquiring and managing single-tenant net-lease industrial manufacturing properties that support key segments of the U.S. economy and national supply chains. The company...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.