Modiv (MDV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $147.80M
• Dividend Yield: 7.97%
• Average Volume (3M): 35.94K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.34
• Revenue Growth: -2.40%
• EPS Growth: 42.84%
• Country: US
• Employees: 12
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Diversified
• EPS (TTM): -0.32
• Shares Outstanding: 10,158,304
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 32,027
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 35,935
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.30
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 10.36
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 12.31
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.86
• 1Y Price Target: $17.00
• Price Target Upside: 15.41% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $15.00 ▲(1.83% Upside)

Modiv's overall stock score reflects operational efficiency and a strong dividend yield, but is tempered by profitability challenges and high leverage. The earnings call provided positive insights on growth and strategy, but market volatility remains a concern. Technical indicators suggest a neutral outlook.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The 4% revenue growth indicates Modiv's ability to expand its market presence and enhance its property portfolio, supporting long-term income stability.

Strong AFFO Performance

A 22% increase in AFFO suggests improved operational efficiency and cash flow generation, which is crucial for sustaining dividends and reinvestment.

Lease Stability

Extending key leases like Northrop's enhances portfolio stability and ensures consistent rental income, vital for long-term financial health.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage can strain financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially impacting Modiv's ability to fund growth and withstand economic downturns.

Profitability Challenges

Negative net profit margins highlight ongoing profitability issues, which could hinder Modiv's capacity to generate shareholder value and reinvest in growth.

Decline in Free Cash Flow Growth

A decline in free cash flow growth may limit Modiv's ability to fund new investments or increase dividends, affecting long-term growth prospects.

Modiv Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Modiv (MDV) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that specializes in acquiring, owning, and managing a diverse portfolio of essential properties across various sectors, primarily focusing on the industrial and logistics markets. The company aims to provide investors with attractive returns through a stable income stream while enhancing the value of its properties via strategic management and operational efficiencies.

How the Company Makes Money

Modiv generates revenue primarily through rental income from its portfolio of industrial and logistics properties leased to a variety of tenants. The company typically signs long-term leases, which provides a consistent cash flow. Additionally, Modiv may engage in property sales or acquisitions, generating capital gains that can be reinvested or distributed to shareholders. The company also benefits from partnerships with property management firms and other stakeholders in the real estate market, which can enhance operational efficiencies and potentially create additional revenue opportunities through joint ventures or co-investments.

Modiv Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Modiv shows operational efficiency with strong gross profit and EBITDA margins. However, profitability challenges are evident with negative net income and return on equity. High leverage increases financial risk, necessitating careful management. Cash flow generation is positive, but the decline in free cash flow growth warrants attention.

Income Statement

Modiv's income statement shows mixed performance. The TTM gross profit margin is strong at 84.18%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is negative at -3.40%, reflecting challenges in achieving profitability. Revenue growth is positive at 0.91% TTM, but the company has experienced fluctuations in previous years. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, suggesting operational efficiency, but the negative net income remains a concern.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.73 TTM, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risks. Return on equity is negative at -0.90%, highlighting challenges in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is not provided, but the high leverage suggests a need for cautious financial management.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth at -3.62% TTM, but the operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 7.59, indicating robust cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.0, suggesting that the company is generating sufficient cash to cover its net income, despite profitability challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	47.01M	46.76M	47.23M	43.82M	36.22M	38.24M
Gross Profit	39.57M	43.15M	42.07M	37.55M	29.53M	31.90M
EBITDA	35.14M	33.74M	24.36M	27.09M	19.42M	20.17M
Net Income	-1.60M	6.02M	-6.61M	-3.29M	-435.50K	-49.14M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	498.85M	507.83M	530.90M	456.03M	428.49M	407.43M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.81M	11.53M	3.13M	8.61M	55.97M	8.25M
Total Debt	287.28M	279.90M	279.73M	195.45M	181.95M	191.51M
Total Liabilities	292.64M	293.78M	305.77M	214.99M	206.06M	217.18M
Stockholders Equity	165.60M	190.15M	144.44M	159.75M	171.83M	139.65M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	17.53M	18.24M	16.58M	10.15M	9.53M	5.01M
Operating Cash Flow	17.53M	18.24M	16.58M	16.65M	9.73M	5.58M
Investing Cash Flow	-5.54M	8.39M	-93.60M	-61.06M	21.83M	24.78M
Financing Cash Flow	-25.05M	-18.23M	71.54M	-5.38M	18.47M	-28.91M

Modiv Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 14.73
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MDV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 14.73 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.51, above the 50-day MA of 14.69, and above the 200-day MA of 14.47, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MDV.

Modiv Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	―	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
MDV	―	$147.80M	―	-1.11%	7.97%	-2.40%	42.84%
FVR	―	$370.59M	―	―	6.47%	―	―
MDRR	―	$29.64M	-7.43	-17.09%	2.00%	-6.82%	7.33%
SQFT	―	$8.61M	-0.52	-41.30%	―	1.35%	-129.09%
GIPR	―	$7.08M	-0.68	-270.04%	―	0.70%	26.52%
MKZR	―	$9.39M	―	-36.45%	71.87%	40.20%	-92.19%

Modiv Corporate Events

Modiv Declares Regular Monthly Cash Distributions

On October 17, 2025, Modiv Industrial announced the declaration of regular monthly cash distributions of $0.0975 per share on its Class C common stock for October, November, and December 2025, maintaining an annual distribution rate of $1.17 per share. This decision reflects a consistent dividend yield of 8.1% based on the company’s recent stock price. Additionally, Modiv Industrial will report its financial results for the third quarter of 2025 on November 14, 2025, with a conference call scheduled for the same day to discuss the results. These announcements underscore Modiv’s commitment to providing consistent returns to shareholders and maintaining transparency in its financial performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (MDV) stock is a Hold with a $14.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Modiv stock, see the MDV Stock Forecast page.

Modiv Announces Quarterly Dividend for Preferred Stock

On September 12, 2025, Modiv Industrial announced a quarterly dividend for its Series A Preferred Stock, set at $0.4609375 per share, to be paid on October 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of September 30, 2025. This announcement reflects Modiv’s ongoing commitment to providing returns to its preferred shareholders, reinforcing its position in the industrial manufacturing real estate sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (MDV) stock is a Hold with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Modiv stock, see the MDV Stock Forecast page.

Modiv Inc. Class C Earnings Call: Balancing Growth and Challenges

The recent earnings call for Modiv Inc. Class C presented a balanced sentiment, highlighting both positive financial performance and ongoing challenges. The company reported growth in revenue and adjusted funds from operations (AFFO), signaling financial stability and progress. However, concerns were raised regarding share price volatility and the hurdles faced in executing growth strategies, painting a picture of both achievement and frustration.

Modiv Industrial Reports Strong AFFO Growth Amid Net Loss

Modiv Industrial, Inc. is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that focuses on acquiring, owning, and managing single-tenant net-lease industrial manufacturing properties with long-term leases, aiming to strengthen the nation’s supply chains. In its second quarter of 2025, Modiv Industrial reported a revenue of $11.8 million, with a net loss of $2.8 million attributable to common stockholders. The company achieved an Adjusted Funds From Operations (AFFO) of $4.8 million, or $0.38 per diluted share, marking a 22% increase year-over-year, surpassing consensus estimates. A notable achievement for the quarter was the renewal of a 5-year lease with Northrop Grumman, featuring 2% annual escalations at their Melbourne, Florida property. Despite a net loss, the company demonstrated resilience with a significant increase in AFFO, indicating strong operational performance. Modiv Industrial’s strategic focus includes preparing for future financial opportunities, exploring asset recycling, and maintaining disciplined investment strategies. Looking ahead, the company remains optimistic about leveraging its strong balance sheet and strategic positioning to capitalize on potential market opportunities, while continuing to prioritize disciplined financial management.

Modiv Reports Q2 2025 Results with AFFO Growth

On August 7, 2025, Modiv Industrial announced its second-quarter results for the period ending June 30, 2025, reporting a revenue of $11.8 million and a net loss of $2.8 million. Despite the loss, the company achieved a 22% year-over-year increase in Adjusted Funds From Operations (AFFO), surpassing consensus estimates. The company also secured a 5-year lease renewal with Northrop Grumman, indicating stability in its operations. CEO Aaron Halfacre highlighted the company’s disciplined approach amidst market volatility and noted potential opportunities in debt refinancing and asset recycling, which could enhance future financial performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (MDV) stock is a Buy with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Modiv stock, see the MDV Stock Forecast page.