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MGM China (MCHVY) AI Stock Analysis

MCHVY

MGM China

(Other OTC:MCHVY)

Select Model
Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:$15.00▲(7.53% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:08/04/26

The score is driven primarily by mixed fundamentals: strong recent profitability and free cash flow are offset by high balance-sheet leverage and a sharp recent revenue decline. Technicals are moderately supportive with positive momentum, while valuation is a clear positive due to the low P/E and high dividend yield.

Positive Factors
Strong cash generationRobust operating and free cash flow gives MGM China internal funding for resort investment, debt service, and shareholder returns. The close relationship between free cash flow and earnings in recent years also supports the durability of reported profitability, despite weaker historical conversion.
Negative Factors
High balance-sheet leverageHigh leverage leaves MGM China with a thinner capital cushion and greater sensitivity to earnings volatility. Debt service and refinancing needs can compete with investment or shareholder distributions, while the recent improvement from extreme leverage does not yet remove balance-sheet risk.

MGM China (MCHVY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%MCHVY-38.22%SPY+11.79%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
$4.42B
Dividend Yield
6.49%
Average Volume (3M)
165
Price to Earnings (P/E)
7.6
Beta (1Y)
0.34
Revenue Growth
10.71%
EPS Growth
6.57%
Country
US
Employees
13,793
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Sector Strength
61
Industry
Gambling, Resorts & Casinos

MGM China Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MGM China Holdings Limited (MCHVY) functions as an investment holding enterprise primarily dedicated to the creation, ownership, and management of integrated gaming and hospitality complexes throughout the Greater China region. The company's core bus...

How the Company Makes Money

MGM China primarily makes money by operating integrated casino resorts in Macau, generating revenue from both gaming and non-gaming activities. Gaming revenue is earned from casino play, including mass-market table games and slot machines, and from h...

MGM China Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating recovery and cash generation are strong (positive earnings and robust free cash flow in 2023–2025), but the balance sheet is a major constraint with very high leverage (debt-to-equity still ~5.9x in 2025 after being far higher in 2024) and the latest period shows a sharp revenue decline (2025 revenue growth -39%), increasing risk around volatility/normalization.

Income Statement

71Positive

Balance Sheet

38Negative

Cash Flow

78Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue19.76B19.40B31.39B24.68B5.27B9.41B
Gross Profit10.48B10.68B11.87B19.67B1.65B1.58B
EBITDA8.42B8.88B8.02B6.45B-1.62B-287.02M
Net Income4.59B5.07B4.60B2.64B-5.23B-3.85B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets28.88B29.67B30.60B29.18B31.21B28.44B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments4.03B4.40B5.32B4.23B6.71B3.11B
Total Debt18.19B19.17B23.15B24.30B32.92B24.15B
Total Liabilities25.05B26.42B30.08B30.51B35.21B27.24B
Stockholders Equity3.83B3.25B527.53M-1.33B-4.00B1.20B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow6.64B7.17B7.07B7.91B-2.41B-977.32M
Operating Cash Flow7.93B8.74B8.27B8.27B-2.11B-449.61M
Investing Cash Flow-1.47B-1.64B-1.52B-124.64M-1.32B-518.49M
Financing Cash Flow-8.02B-8.09B-5.66B-10.62B7.04B1.44B

MGM China Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price13.95

Price Trends

50DMA14.87Negative
100DMA15.25Negative
200DMA16.31Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-0.27Positive
RSI40.91Neutral
STOCH8.57Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MCHVY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.95 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.42, below the 50-day MA of 14.87, and below the 200-day MA of 16.31, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.57 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MCHVY.

MGM China Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

MCHVY against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
MCHVYMCHVY67Neutral$4.42B7.60129.87%6.49%10.71%6.57%
Sector *61Neutral$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
LVSLVS55Neutral$23.18B15.09216.58%3.11%10.93%9.73%
MLCOMLCO54Neutral$1.50B6.58-17.37%―6.01%338.84%
WYNNWYNN52Neutral$7.69B17.08-174.87%1.34%6.36%21.32%
CZRCZR43Neutral$5.93B-11.10-15.71%―3.08%-128.00%
MSCMSC42Neutral$165.26M-0.72-10.08%―0.71%24.32%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-50%0%MCHVYLVSMLCOWYNNCZRMSCDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
MCHVY and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
MCHVYMGM China Holdings13.95-8.43-37.66%
LVSLas Vegas Sands36.97-23.45-38.81%
MLCOMelco Resorts & Entertainment3.94-4.41-52.81%
WYNNWynn Resorts Limited74.66-49.90-40.06%
CZRCaesars Entertainment Inc29.098.6442.25%
MSCStudio City International Holdings0.78-3.21-80.35%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 04, 2026