LiveWire Group (LVWR) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Harley‑Davidson reaffirmed full‑year 2026 guidance with HDMC retail units and wholesale units each expected at 130,000–135,000 and retail/wholesale largely one‑to‑one; it forecasts incremental tariff costs of $75–$90 million for 2026 (Q1 tariffs were $45M), HDMC operating income of +$10M to -$40M, HDFS operating income of $45–$60M, and a LiveWire operating loss of $70–$80M. Management reiterated a path to $350M+ EBITDA in 2027 driven by at least $150M of annual run‑rate cost saves (impacting 2027+), and set medium‑term targets of mid‑single‑digit retail unit growth, mid‑single‑digit P&A and A&L growth, gross margins approaching ~30%, operating expenses <20% of sales (vs 25% in 2025), and a 10%–12% EBITDA margin. Q1 results that framed the guidance included consolidated revenue down 12%, consolidated operating income $23M (Q1 EPS $0.22 vs $1.07 prior year), HDMC revenue $1.1B (-2%) with motorcycles $836M, HDMC gross profit 25.3% (vs 29.1%), HDFS revenue $112M (-54%) with operating income $22M, LiveWire revenue +87% with an $18M operating loss, global retail sales +8% (~34,000 units: North America +14%/~24,000; ex‑NA -4%/~10,000), wholesale shipments ~37,300 (-3%), dealer inventory down 22% YoY and ~2/3 of NA inventory current model year, net cash used in operations $228M (cash $1.8B), retail originations $671M (+14%), and gross financing receivables $2.5B (retail $1.3B; commercial $1.2B).