Open Lending Corporation (LPRO)
NASDAQ:LPRO
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Open Lending
(NASDAQ:LPRO)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$3.00
▲(75.44% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/18/26
The score is held back primarily by weakened financial performance—return to losses and sharply deteriorated cash flow. Offsetting factors include a strong technical uptrend and supportive catalysts from the announced take-private transaction, while valuation remains constrained by unprofitability and the earnings call points to improving unit economics but still-pressured near-term results.
Positive Factors
Lenders Protection business model
Open Lending’s core Lenders Protection program creates recurring, loan-volume-linked fee income and embeds the company into originators’ workflows. The combination of pricing/decisioning tech plus risk-transfer structures gives durable revenue capture and stickiness with banks and credit unions over multiple origination cycles.
Negative Factors
Return to losses
The company’s return to net losses and negative operating margins weakens internal funding for growth and raises questions about the sustainability of fee economics. Persisting unprofitability can erode partner confidence, limit reinvestment in analytics, and increase reliance on external capital over the coming months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Lenders Protection business model
Open Lending’s core Lenders Protection program creates recurring, loan-volume-linked fee income and embeds the company into originators’ workflows. The combination of pricing/decisioning tech plus risk-transfer structures gives durable revenue capture and stickiness with banks and credit unions over multiple origination cycles.
Read all positive factors
Open Lending (LPRO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$367.66M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)569.02K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.96
Revenue Growth405.40%
EPS Growth96.15%
CountryUS
Employees205
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.04
Shares Outstanding118,217,080
10 Day Avg. Volume624,170
30 Day Avg. Volume569,024
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.45
Price to Book (P/B)2.45
Price to Sales (P/S)1.97
P/FCF Ratio-56.56
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.73
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.99
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.87
Enterprise Value/Ebitda60.56
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$2.38Price Target Upside39.38% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.11
Revenue Forecast (FY)$101.90M
Open Lending Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Based in Austin, Texas, and established in 2000, Open Lending Corporation delivers specialized solutions for empowering lending operations and conducting risk analysis. Their services are utilized by a diverse range of financial institutions throu...
How the Company Makes Money
Open Lending primarily makes money by charging fees tied to the volume and characteristics of auto loans that its customers originate using its platform. The company’s core model is to support lenders’ near-prime auto originations with (1) softwar...
Open Lending Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a balanced picture: clear and material progress on underwriting quality, per-loan economics, strategic initiatives (OEM 3, ApexOne Auto) and decision intelligence (Project Red Rocks) that set the stage for durable, higher-quality growth. However, near-term top-line and GAAP/adjusted profitability metrics declined year-over-year (revenue -16%, adjusted EBITDA -37.5%, certified loans -23.8%) and there were modest reserve adjustments and a small operating cash flow shortfall driven by timing. Management guided to accelerating volumes later in 2026 and reiterated full-year targets, but near-term financials reflect the tradeoff of intentionally tightening credit to improve long-term unit economics.Positive Updates
Applications Growth
Applications grew 18% year-over-year, driven by stronger go-to-market performance and early signs of improved top-of-funnel activity.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline Year-Over-Year
Total revenue for Q1 2026 was $20.5 million compared to $24.4 million in Q1 2025, a decline of $3.9 million or approximately -16% year-over-year.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Applications Growth
Applications grew 18% year-over-year, driven by stronger go-to-market performance and early signs of improved top-of-funnel activity.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Open Lending guided Q2 certified loans of 22,000–24,000 and reiterated full‑year certified loans of 100,000–110,000 (midpoint ≈8% growth vs. 2025) and full‑year adjusted EBITDA of $25M–$29M; they noted Q1 facilitation of 21,064 certified loans, Q1 revenue of $20.5M, Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $2.0M, profit‑share economics of $363 per certified loan in Q1 (up from $278 YoY and $322 in Q4 ′25), and that the 2026 vintage was booked with an implied 70% loss ratio while they expect eventual performance closer to the mid‑60s; management expects daily certified loan production and volumes to accelerate in Q3/Q4 as OEM 3 ramps, reaffirmed capital priorities including a $50M share‑repurchase program (≈$45.1M remaining), and highlighted a strong balance sheet with $173.3M unrestricted cash, $231.1M total assets and $82.9M of debt.Open Lending Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 89.31M | 93.22M | 24.02M | 117.46M | 179.59M | 215.66M |
| Gross Profit | 68.99M | 70.40M | 169.00K | 95.18M | 159.63M | 197.03M |
| EBITDA | 4.41M | 8.40M | -51.61M | 41.30M | 100.29M | 197.55M |
| Net Income | -5.31M | -4.24M | -135.01M | 22.07M | 66.62M | 146.08M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 231.09M | 236.68M | 296.37M | 374.04M | 379.63M | 318.82M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 184.95M | 176.61M | 243.16M | 240.21M | 204.45M | 116.45M |
| Total Debt | 85.08M | 88.05M | 143.77M | 148.13M | 152.08M | 151.40M |
| Total Liabilities | 155.77M | 161.72M | 218.28M | 168.46M | 166.81M | 159.84M |
| Stockholders Equity | 75.31M | 74.96M | 78.09M | 205.58M | 212.82M | 158.98M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -714.00K | -3.25M | 17.43M | 80.48M | 106.81M | 93.17M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -120.00K | -3.19M | 17.60M | 82.66M | 107.43M | 95.16M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -713.00K | -1.03M | -3.90M | -2.18M | -624.00K | -1.99M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -61.28M | -61.48M | -6.45M | -42.33M | -17.80M | -77.81M |
Open Lending Technical Analysis
Positive
1.71
Price Trends
1.94
Positive
1.69
Positive
1.79
Positive
Market Momentum
0.21
Negative
75.95
Negative
72.41
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LPRO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.71 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.26, below the 50-day MA of 1.94, and below the 200-day MA of 1.79, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.95 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.41 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LPRO.
Open Lending Risk Analysis
Open Lending disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Open Lending reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Open Lending Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $235.40M | 5.56 | 9.85% | 4.44% | 9.67% | -6.40% | |
69 Neutral | $342.27M | 6.93 | 13.16% | 2.99% | 10.51% | 53.17% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
62 Neutral | $207.87M | 10.42 | 6.34% | ― | 12.28% | 1.64% | |
59 Neutral | $238.30M | 13.59 | 4.63% | ― | -3.81% | ― | |
56 Neutral | $367.66M | -68.83 | -7.04% | ― | 405.40% | 96.15% | |
52 Neutral | $164.35M | 11.55 | 12.35% | ― | ― | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
LPRO
Open Lending
3.11
1.01
47.86%
CPSS
Consumer Portfolio Services
9.65
<0.01
0.10%
MFIN
Medallion Financial
9.52
0.88
10.20%
RM
Regional Management
36.90
10.13
37.86%
OPRT
Oportun Financial
5.01
-1.99
-28.43%
ANTA
Antalpha Platform Holding Company
6.75
-4.72
-41.14%
Open Lending Corporate Events
Delistings and Listing ChangesM&A Transactions
Open Lending to Be Acquired and Taken Private
Positive
Jun 16, 2026
On June 15, 2026, Open Lending entered into a definitive merger agreement under which ANV Group Holdings will acquire the Nasdaq-listed auto lending analytics specialist via an all-cash tender offer at $3.15 a share, followed by a second-step merg...
Executive/Board Changes
Open Lending Announces Immediate Resignation of Board Director
Neutral
Jun 9, 2026
On June 8, 2026, Open Lending Corporation announced that director William Dabbs Cavin resigned from the company’s board, effective immediately, marking a change in its governance structure. The company stated that Cavin’s departure did...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsStock Split
Open Lending Shareholders Approve Governance and Capital Changes
Positive
Jun 4, 2026
On June 3, 2026, Open Lending Corporation stockholders re-elected Class III directors Jessica Buss and William Dabbs Cavin to terms running through the 2029 annual meeting, and ratified Ernst Young LLP as independent auditor for the 2026 fiscal y...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.