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LGI Homes (LGIH) Risk Analysis
Risk Overview Q3, 2020
Source: the company's latest filing for the period ended Sep 30, 2020, filed Nov 03, 2020
Risk Change Over Time
No filing history is available.
- Natural and Human Disruptions - Risk 1Our business could be materially and adversely disrupted by an epidemic or pandemic (such as the present outbreak and worldwide spread of COVID-19), or similar public threat, or fear of such an event, and the measures that federal, state and local governments and other authorities implement to address it.
An epidemic, pandemic or similar serious public health issue, and the measures undertaken by governmental authorities to address it, could significantly disrupt or prevent us from operating our business in the ordinary course for an extended period, and thereby, and along with any associated economic and social instability or distress, have a material adverse impact on our business, financial condition, results of operations, cash flows, strategies or prospects. On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared the current outbreak of COVID-19 to be a global pandemic, and on March 13, 2020, the United States declared a national emergency. In response to these declarations and the rapid spread of COVID-19, federal, state and local governments imposed varying degrees of restrictions on business and social activities to contain COVID-19, including business shutdowns and closures, travel restrictions, quarantines, curfews, shelter-in-place orders and "stay-at-home" orders in certain of our markets. State and local authorities have also implemented multi-step policies with the goal of re-opening various sectors of the economy. However, certain jurisdictions began re-opening only to return to restrictions in the face of increases in new COVID-19 cases, while other jurisdictions are continuing to re-open or have nearly completed the re-opening process despite increases in COVID-19 cases. The COVID-19 outbreak may significantly worsen in the United States during the upcoming winter months, which may cause federal, state and local governments to reconsider restrictions on business and social activities. In the event governments increase restrictions, the re-opening of the economy may be further curtailed. We have experienced some resulting disruptions to our business operations, as these restrictions have significantly impacted, and may continue to impact, many sectors of the economy, with various businesses curtailing or ceasing normal operations and subsequently attempting to resume operations. In March 2020, certain markets in which we do business temporarily stopped our construction of homes. Beginning in April 2020, we resumed construction of homes in those markets. Although we continued to build and sell homes in all of our markets, the pace of sales declined and we experienced an increase in the rate of contract cancellations. Since May 2020, the pace of sales has rebounded and we have experienced a sustained increase in demand in our markets. However, as a result of reducing starts in March 2020 and April 2020 to preserve cash, our availability of completed homes was reduced, which slowed the pace of our home closings in the second and third quarter. Further, our inventory of owned or controlled lots decreased during the first half of 2020 primarily due to certain cash management policies we implemented beginning in March 2020, which included delaying or canceling land acquisitions to manage our overall inventory. From time to time during the COVID-19 outbreak, we have had to close individual sales offices for a limited period of time, as a result of potential or actual exposure to COVID-19 by one or more of our employees. The economic impact of COVID-19 may be reduced by financial assistance under the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act or other similar COVID-19 related federal and state programs; however, such programs may not have a positive impact on our business. While we continue to assess the COVID-19 situation, at this time we cannot estimate with any degree of certainty the full impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on our financial condition and future results of operations, although we expect the COVID-19 situation to impact future quarters. The ultimate impacts of COVID-19 and related mitigation efforts will depend on future developments, including, but not limited to, the duration and geographic spread of COVID-19, the impact of government actions designed to prevent the spread of COVID-19, the development and availability of effective treatments and vaccines, actions taken by customers, subcontractors, suppliers and other third parties, workforce availability, and the timing and extent to which normal economic and operating conditions resume. Our business could also be negatively impacted over the medium-to-longer term if the disruptions related to COVID-19 decrease consumer confidence generally or with respect to purchasing a home; cause civil unrest; negatively impact mortgage availability or the federal government's mortgage loan-related programs or policies; delay mortgage originations; tighten mortgage lending standards; or precipitate a prolonged economic downturn or an extended rise in unemployment or tempering of wage growth, any of which could lower demand for our products; negatively impact general consumer interest in purchasing a home compared to choosing other housing alternatives; impair our ability to sell and build homes in a typical manner or at all, generate revenues and cash flows or access the Credit Agreement or the capital or lending markets (or significantly increase the costs of doing so), as may be necessary to sustain our business; increase the costs or decrease the supply of building materials or the financial viability or availability of subcontractors, including as a result of infections or medically necessary or recommended self-quarantining, or governmental mandates to direct production activities to support public health efforts; and result in our recognizing charges in future periods, which may be material, for inventory impairments or land option contract abandonments, or both, related to our current inventory assets. The inherent uncertainty surrounding COVID-19, due in part to rapidly changing governmental directives, public health challenges and progress and market reactions thereto, also makes it more challenging for our management to estimate the future performance of our business and develop strategies to generate growth or achieve our objectives for the remainder of 2020. Should the adverse impacts described above (or others that are currently unknown) occur, whether individually or collectively, we would expect to experience, among other things, decreases in our net orders, homes closed, average sales prices per home closed, revenues and profitability, and such impacts could be material to our business, financial condition, results of operations, cash flows, strategies or prospects in future quarters. In addition, should the surge in COVID-19 cases or the public health effort related thereto intensify to such an extent that we cannot operate in most or all of our markets, we could generate few or no orders and deliver few, if any, homes during the applicable period, which could be prolonged. Along with a potential increase in cancellations of home purchase contracts, if prolonged government restrictions on our business and our customers return in response to increases in COVID-19 cases, or if there is an extended economic recession, we could be unable to produce revenues and cash flows sufficient to conduct our business; meet the terms of our covenants and other requirements under the Credit Agreement, the Senior Notes and the related indenture, and/or mortgages and land contracts due to land sellers and other loans; or service our outstanding indebtedness. Such a circumstance could, among other things, exhaust our available liquidity and ability to access liquidity sources or trigger an acceleration to pay a significant portion or all of our then-outstanding debt obligations, which we may be unable to do.
Risk Highlights Q3, 2020
Risk Word Cloud
Risk Factors Full Breakdown - Total Risks 53
- Accounting & Financial Operations - Risk 1If the market value of our land inventory decreases, our results of operations could be adversely affected by impairments and write-downs.
The market value of our land and housing inventories depends on market conditions. We acquire land for expansion into new markets and for replacement of land inventory and expansion within our current markets. There is an inherent risk that the value of the land owned by us may decline after purchase. The valuation of property is inherently subjective and based on the individual characteristics of each property. We may have acquired options on or bought and developed land at a cost we will not be able to recover fully or on which we cannot build and sell homes profitably. In addition, our deposits for lots controlled under purchase, option or similar contracts may be put at risk. Factors such as changes in regulatory requirements and applicable laws (including in relation to building regulations, taxation and planning), political conditions, the condition of financial markets, both local and national economic conditions, the financial condition of customers, potentially adverse tax consequences, and interest and inflation rate fluctuations are subject to uncertainty. Moreover, our valuations are made on the basis of assumptions that may not prove to reflect economic or demographic reality. If housing demand fails to meet our expectations when we acquired our inventory, our profitability may be adversely affected and we may not be able to recover our costs when we build and sell houses. We regularly review the value of our land holdings and continue to review our holdings on a periodic basis. Material write-downs and impairments in the value of our inventory may be required, and we may in the future sell land or homes at a loss, which could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition.
- Accounting & Financial Operations - Risk 2We are a holding company, and we are accordingly dependent upon distributions from our subsidiaries to service our debt and pay dividends, if any, taxes and other expenses.
We are a holding company and have no material assets other than our ownership of membership interests or limited partnership interests in our subsidiaries. We have no independent means of generating revenue. We intend to cause our subsidiaries to make distributions to their members in an amount sufficient to cover all applicable taxes payable and dividends, if any, declared by us. Our ability to service our debt depends on the results of operations of our subsidiaries and upon the ability of such subsidiaries to provide us with cash, whether in the form of dividends, loans or other distributions, to pay amounts due on our obligations. Future financing arrangements may contain negative covenants, limiting the ability of our subsidiaries to declare or pay dividends or make distributions. Our subsidiaries are separate and distinct legal entities; to the extent that we need funds, and our subsidiaries are restricted from making such dividends or distributions under applicable law or regulations, or are otherwise unable to provide such funds (for example, due to restrictions in future financing arrangements that limit the ability of our operating subsidiaries to distribute funds), our liquidity and financial condition could be materially harmed.
- Accounting & Financial Operations - Risk 3If we fail to implement and maintain an effective system of internal controls, we may not be able to accurately determine our financial results or prevent fraud. As a result, investors could lose confidence in our financial results, which could materially and adversely affect us.
Effective internal controls are necessary for us to provide reliable financial reports and effectively prevent fraud. We may in the future discover areas of our internal controls that need improvement. We cannot be certain that we will be successful in maintaining adequate internal control over our financial reporting and financial processes. Furthermore, as we grow our business, our internal controls will become more complex, and we will require significantly more resources to ensure our internal controls remain effective. Additionally, the existence of any material weakness or significant deficiency would require management to devote significant time and incur significant expense to remediate any such material weakness or significant deficiency and management may not be able to remediate any such material weakness or significant deficiency in a timely manner. The existence of any material weakness in our internal control over financial reporting could also result in errors in our financial statements that could require us to restate our financial statements, cause us to fail to meet our reporting obligations and cause investors to lose confidence in our reported financial information, all of which could materially and adversely affect us.
- Accounting & Financial Operations - Risk 4Changes in accounting rules, assumptions and/or judgments could materially and adversely affect us.
Accounting rules and interpretations for certain aspects of our financial reporting are highly complex and involve significant assumptions and judgment. These complexities could lead to a delay in the preparation and dissemination of our financial statements. Furthermore, changes in accounting rules and interpretations or in our accounting assumptions and/or judgments, such as asset impairments, could significantly impact our financial statements. In some cases, we could be required to apply a new or revised standard retroactively, resulting in restating prior period financial statements. Any of these circumstances could have a material adverse effect on our business, prospects, liquidity, financial condition and results of operations.
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