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Key Tronic (KTCC) AI Stock Analysis
Key Tronic
(NASDAQ:KTCC)
KTCC scores low primarily due to deteriorated financial performance—heavy losses, higher leverage, and negative free cash flow. Technicals also weigh on the score given the strong downtrend, despite oversold readings. Offsetting factors are a mixed-but-improving operational narrative from the earnings call (new program wins, sequential improvements, FY2027 profitability target) and modestly positive governance alignment from the incentive-plan update.
Key Tronic Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Revenue by Timing of Revenue RecognitionBreaks down revenue between amounts recognized at a single point (product shipments) and amounts recognized over time (long-term contracts, multi-deliverable projects, or ongoing services). For Key Tronic, a larger share of over-time revenue can mean steadier contract work and better forward visibility, while a heavier point-in-time mix can make reported sales more sensitive to order timing, inventory flows and supply-chain swings. Watch shifts over time and any impact from accounting changes (e.g., ASC 606) to judge whether reported trends reflect real business momentum or differences in recognition timing.
Over‑time revenue has softened materially since mid‑2023, signaling weaker recurring/long‑cycle contract activity and end‑of‑life program impacts, while point‑in‑time revenue’s late‑2023/early‑2024 spike reflects one‑off shipment/milestone recognition that has since faded. That lumpy revenue mix helps explain the year‑over‑year shortfall and losses; sustainable improvement depends on timely ramps of the new program wins and the China wind‑down cost savings—both of which create upside but leave near‑term recovery and profitability timing uncertain.
The FlyKey Tronic (KTCC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $23.13M
- Dividend Yield
- ―
- Average Volume (3M)
- 27.73K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- -0.5
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.55
- Revenue Growth
- -17.36%
- EPS Growth
- -469.66%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 3,298
- Sector
- Technology
- Sector Strength
- 61
- Industry
- Computer Hardware
Key Tronic Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Key Tronic Corporation (KTCC) operates as a contract manufacturer, offering comprehensive services to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) both within the United States and globally. The company provides an integrated suite of offerings, which inc...
How the Company Makes Money
Key Tronic makes money primarily by providing contract manufacturing services to OEM customers under manufacturing programs where the company is paid for producing customer-specified products and assemblies. Revenue is generally generated (1) from th...
Key Tronic Earnings Call Summary
Balanced tone: the company demonstrated operational progress (sequential revenue growth, margin improvements, large new program wins, Vietnam and U.S. capacity expansion, and reduced adjusted losses) and articulated a path to recover in FY2027. However, significant GAAP losses, a large deferred tax valuation allowance, an $8.4M receivables write-off, FY revenue decline (~17%), and supply-chain financing constraints materially weighed on results and cash flow flexibility. Management highlights momentum in bookings and cost savings but acknowledges ongoing liquidity and macro uncertainties.
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
Management said they expect revenue growth in coming quarters and a return to profitability in fiscal 2027 but, given timing uncertainty around new product ramps, are not providing first‑quarter FY2027 guidance; they pointed to Q4 FY2026 improvements—$102.0M revenue (up 14% sequential from $89.6M; versus $110.5M a year ago), gross margin 7.8% (adjusted 8.3%, up from 6.2% YOY), operating margin -3.6%, and a Q4 net loss of $34.3M ($3.16/share)—and full‑year FY2026 results of $386.7M revenue (vs $467.9M FY2025) and a $47.8M net loss ($4.41/share); they highlighted over $60M of Q4 new program awards (a $40–45M/yr data‑center win in Mexico contributing in Q2 FY2027, a $5–10M construction program migrating to Arkansas with a few million in the first six months, and a $15M power‑management program ramping by Q3/early Q4 FY2027), Vietnam production more than doubled sequentially, U.S. and Vietnam accounted for roughly half of Q4 manufacturing activity, ~$10M of shipments were delayed by supply‑chain financing constraints, inventory was down $1.5M (2%), current ratio was 2.1:1 (vs 2.6:1), DSOs improved to 75 days (from 86), capex was $2.7M in Q4 and ~$6.4M for the year, the China wind‑down is expected to save about $4M in FY2027, and management is pursuing customer capital‑sharing and additional financing options to alleviate liquidity constraints.
Key Tronic Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financial results are weak in the latest TTM: revenue declined, profitability swung to heavy losses, leverage increased materially (debt meaningfully higher than equity), and free cash flow turned negative. Operating cash flow remains slightly positive, but overall cash conversion and balance-sheet flexibility look pressured.
Income Statement
18Very NegativeBalance Sheet
34NegativeCash Flow
32Negative| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 386.67M | 386.67M | 467.87M | 566.94M | 605.32M | 531.82M |
| Gross Profit | 23.94M | 23.94M | 36.43M | 39.95M | 47.55M | 43.21M |
| EBITDA | -9.76M | -6.00M | 10.16M | 17.89M | 26.11M | 16.36M |
| Net Income | -47.79M | -47.79M | -8.32M | -2.79M | 5.16M | 3.38M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 299.77M | 299.77M | 315.87M | 355.34M | 418.27M | 406.92M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 584.00K | 584.00K | 1.38M | 4.75M | 3.60M | 1.71M |
| Total Debt | 126.34M | 126.34M | 118.46M | 137.02M | 134.99M | 119.21M |
| Total Liabilities | 230.58M | 230.58M | 198.74M | 231.35M | 287.65M | 282.05M |
| Stockholders Equity | 69.18M | 69.18M | 117.13M | 123.99M | 130.62M | 124.88M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.93M | -1.93M | 14.83M | 9.82M | -21.08M | -11.72M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.42M | 4.42M | 18.93M | 13.78M | -11.31M | -4.91M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.02M | -4.02M | -4.20M | -2.11M | -4.53M | -8.05M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.21M | -1.21M | -18.10M | -10.52M | 17.74M | 11.19M |
Key Tronic Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KTCC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.09 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.14, below the 50-day MA of 2.40, and below the 200-day MA of 3.08, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 36.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for KTCC.
Key Tronic Risk Analysis
Key Tronic disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Key Tronic reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
1 New RiskKey Tronic Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
TACT59Neutral- KTCC47Neutral
SCKT42Neutral
EBON39Underperform
ZSPC39Underperform
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sector * | 61Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% |
| TACT | 59Neutral | $56.58M | -164.07 | -1.25% | ― | 10.52% | 95.37% |
| KTCC | 47Neutral | $23.13M | -0.47 | -48.61% | ― | -17.36% | -469.66% |
| SCKT | 42Neutral | $2.75M | -0.18 | -229.43% | ― | -17.40% | -403.07% |
| EBON | 39Underperform | $11.87M | -0.95 | -5.14% | ― | -6.25% | 32.66% |
| ZSPC | 39Underperform | $3.52M | -0.00 | 97.69% | ― | -34.31% | 1.15% |
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KTCC | Key Tronic | 2.09 | -1.28 | -37.98% | |
| SCKT | Socket Mobile | 0.33 | -0.67 | -66.73% | |
| TACT | Transact Technologies | 5.48 | 0.91 | 19.91% | |
| EBON | Ebang International Holdings, Inc. | 1.89 | -2.40 | -55.94% | |
| ZSPC | zSpace, Inc. | 0.10 | -22.81 | -99.59% |
Key Tronic Corporate Events
Key Tronic Sets New Performance-Linked Executive Incentive Plan
PositiveOn August 20, 2026, Key Tronic’s board set profit-based performance goals and target payout ranges for participants in its fiscal 2027 incentive compensation plan, including CEO Brett Larsen and senior executives, with payouts as a percentage o...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Sep 24, 2026