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Coca Cola Femsa SAB De CV (KOF) AI Stock Analysis

KOF

Coca Cola Femsa SAB De CV

(NYSE:KOF)

Select Model
Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:$132.00▲(12.49% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:11/01/26

KOF scores well primarily on strong financial performance (steady profitability and improving returns, with manageable leverage) and a supportive technical uptrend (price above key moving averages with positive MACD). The score is tempered by cash-flow volatility and region-specific risks noted on the earnings call (Mexico margin pressures and potential Brazil regulatory/labor changes), while valuation is reasonable with a solid ~3.7% dividend yield.

Positive Factors
Scale and Franchise PositionKOF’s scale and long-term Coca-Cola bottling relationships support broad distribution, brand access, and route-to-market capabilities that are difficult to replicate. Geographic reach across several territories also diversifies demand and gives the company a durable platform for expanding beverage categories and channels.
Negative Factors
Mexico Demand and Tax PressureMexico’s tax burden and subdued consumer environment can constrain volume, pricing, and revenue growth in a major operating market. Incomplete price pass-through also risks compressing margins if inflationary cost gaps persist, making recovery dependent on consumer resilience and successful revenue management.

Coca Cola Femsa SAB De CV Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Revenue by GeographyBreaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.

MXN 0.00MXN 20.00BMXN 40.00BMXN 60.00BMXN 80.00BMar 21Jun 21Sep 21Dec 21Mar 22Jun 22Sep 22Dec 22Mar 23Jun 23Sep 23Dec 23Mar 24Jun 24Sep 24Dec 24Mar 25Jun 25Sep 25Dec 25Mar 26Jun 26Sep 26
Chart Insights

South America is clearly the growth engine—sustained volume gains and World Cup‑driven activations (Brazil, Colombia) are delivering outsized revenue and margin relief that help offset Mexico weakness. Mexico & Central America shows more volatility and margin pressure from excise taxes, higher freight/marketing and softer consumers; management now expects flattish Mexico volumes with a measured price catch‑up in August. Near‑term upside depends on continued South American momentum, successful price pass‑through in Mexico, and how hedging and Brazil regulatory/labor risks play out.

Data provided by:The Fly

Coca Cola Femsa SAB De CV (KOF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%KOF+37.45%SPY+12.58%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
$24.30B
Dividend Yield
3.66%
Average Volume (3M)
167.55K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
18.7
Beta (1Y)
0.22
Revenue Growth
16.92%
EPS Growth
14.27%
Country
US
Employees
108,925
Sector
Consumer Defensive
Sector Strength
62
Industry
Beverages - Non-Alcoholic

Coca Cola Femsa SAB De CV Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V., operating as a licensed bottler, is engaged in the manufacturing, marketing, sale, and distribution of beverages under the Coca-Cola brand. Its extensive product portfolio encompasses sparkling beverages, including va...

How the Company Makes Money

Coca-Cola FEMSA primarily makes money by producing and selling finished beverages to retailers and other customers within its authorized bottling territories. Its core revenue stream is net sales from beverage volume (unit cases) multiplied by realiz...

Coca Cola Femsa SAB De CV Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 27, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:3.26%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 24, 2027
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was predominantly positive. The company delivered record consolidated volumes, double-digit revenue growth, stronger gross profit and adjusted EBITDA, broad-based volume and market-share gains, substantial South American profitability improvement, successful innovation launches and continued digital and sustainability progress. The main challenges were Mexico's underlying margin pressure, higher labor and freight costs, increased financing expense, uncertain Brazil tax and labor reforms, volatile commodities, flat Argentina volumes and capacity constraints in Colombia and Venezuela. Management nevertheless expressed confidence in continued growth and profitability improvement.

Positive Updates

Record Consolidated Volume and Strong Revenue Growth
Third-quarter consolidated volumes increased 5.3% year over year to 1.1 billion unit cases, marking a record third-quarter volume. Total revenues increased 10.9% to MXN 79.7 billion, or 11.3% on a currency-neutral basis, driven primarily by volume growth and revenue growth management initiatives.

Negative Updates

Underlying Consolidated Operating Margin Declined Excluding Insurance Recovery
The reported operating results included MXN 1.1 billion related to recovered insurance claims in Brazil. Excluding this nonrecurring benefit, operating income would have increased 7.4% and operating margin would have been 13.6%, representing a 40-basis-point contraction.

Company Guidance

For the fourth quarter, Mexico expects further RGM initiatives in mid November to cover impacts from FX and raw materials and continue improving profitability; for 2027, management is “moderately optimistic” and expects a “fairly normal operating year,” with labor, FX and raw-material impacts to be addressed through RGM, while Brazil’s potential selective tax and 5-by-2 work schedule change would require RGM to cover “100% of that impact” if the tax is not neutral. Management expects to announce the shareholder capital-return mechanism “earlier in next year,” and has secured approximately 16% of 2027 PET requirements, 85% of sugar, 94% of HFCS, and 54% of alumina.

Coca Cola Femsa SAB De CV Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are solid for a mature beverage bottler: strong multi-year revenue growth with steady, healthy margins (gross margin ~44%–46%, operating margin mid-teens, EBITDA margin ~high-teens to ~20% in TTM) and dependable net profitability (~8%). Balance sheet leverage is moderate (debt-to-equity ~0.63 TTM) with improving ROE (~17% TTM). The main offset is cash-flow consistency: free cash flow rebounded strongly in TTM but has been volatile year-to-year and free cash flow is only about half of net income in TTM.

Income Statement

84Very Positive

Balance Sheet

77Positive

Cash Flow

73Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue304.71B291.75B279.79B245.09B226.74B194.80B
Gross Profit142.60B131.52B127.65B111.44B99.61B87.27B
EBITDA57.44B54.67B53.22B44.04B40.72B37.53B
Net Income24.28B23.84B23.73B19.54B19.03B15.71B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets344.22B314.54B307.99B273.52B278.00B271.57B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments46.77B28.57B33.13B31.36B40.52B47.49B
Total Debt88.35B82.68B79.18B69.50B82.47B88.18B
Total Liabilities183.89B160.51B157.44B139.81B146.12B144.00B
Stockholders Equity151.08B146.20B143.43B127.03B125.39B121.55B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow15.20B6.10B16.65B21.66B17.76B22.73B
Operating Cash Flow29.31B27.76B42.44B42.29B35.49B32.72B
Investing Cash Flow-16.50B-23.48B-23.39B-20.07B-19.60B-9.55B
Financing Cash Flow-4.14B-6.77B-19.64B-26.35B-20.85B-20.26B

Coca Cola Femsa SAB De CV Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive
Last Price117.34

Price Trends

50DMA111.92Positive
100DMA108.81Positive
200DMA105.36Positive

Market Momentum

MACD1.60Positive
RSI59.19Neutral
STOCH47.03Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KOF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 117.34 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 114.89, above the 50-day MA of 111.92, and above the 200-day MA of 105.36, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.60 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KOF.

Coca Cola Femsa SAB De CV Risk Analysis

Coca Cola Femsa SAB De CV disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Coca Cola Femsa SAB De CV reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Higher RiskSector Avg.Lower RiskFinance & CorporateTech & InnovationLegal & RegulatoryProductionAbility to SellMacro & Political
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

3 New Risks
1.If we fail to comply with privacy and data protection laws, we could be subject to adverse publicity, business disruption, data loss, government enforcement actions and/or private litigation, any of which could negatively affect our business and operating results.Q4, 2023
2.Product safety and quality concerns could negatively affect our business.Q4, 2023
3.Pandemics and public health crises, may adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations.Q4, 2023

Coca Cola Femsa SAB De CV Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

KOF against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
MNSTMNST79Outperform$92.74B44.0524.96%―20.37%34.79%
KOFKOF78Outperform$6.13B18.7316.80%3.66%16.92%14.27%
CCEPCCEP74Outperform$50.18B23.2624.78%1.97%9.67%42.56%
AKO.AAKO.A72Outperform$4.15B12.3422.86%5.16%9.60%14.76%
KDPKDP69Neutral$48.77B37.045.64%2.50%27.48%-12.53%
COKECOKE63Neutral$14.00B25.99-889.19%0.48%10.71%12.43%
Sector *62Neutral$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%

* Consumer Defensive Sector Average

Performance Comparison

0%20%40%60%KOFCOKEKDPAKO.AMNSTCCEPDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
KOF and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
KOFCoca Cola Femsa S.a.b. De C.v.117.0534.5241.82%
COKECoca-cola Bottling Co. Consolidated209.4876.6357.68%
KDPKeurig Dr Pepper36.8211.1843.59%
AKO.AEmbotelladora Andina S.A. A23.882.3410.87%
MNSTMonster Beverage48.0214.5943.62%
CCEPCoca-Cola Europacific Partners Plc115.5830.8836.46%

Coca Cola Femsa SAB De CV Corporate Events

Coca-Cola FEMSA Posts Record 3Q 2026 Volume and Strong Profit Growth

Oct 26, 2026

In the third quarter of 2026, Coca-Cola FEMSA reported solid operational and financial results, with consolidated volume up 5.3% to a record level, revenue rising 10.9% and operating income increasing 15.4% versus a year earlier. Growth was driven by...

Coca-Cola FEMSA Moves Q3 2026 Earnings Call to October 26

Oct 22, 2026

Coca-Cola FEMSA announced on October 21, 2026 that it has rescheduled its third-quarter 2026 earnings conference call, moving it forward by one day from October 27 to October 26, 2026. The call, led by Chief Executive Officer Ian Craig, Chief Financi...

Coca-Cola FEMSA Hits Water-Efficiency Target, Securing Terms on Sustainability-Linked Bonds

Sep 3, 2026

On September 3, 2026, Coca-Cola FEMSA announced it has met the sustainability performance target tied to its KOF 21L sustainability-linked bonds by reaching a water use efficiency ratio of 1.26 liters of water per liter of beverage produced. An exter...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 01, 2026