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Kyodo Paper Holdings Co., Ltd. (9849) AI Stock Analysis

JP:9849

Kyodo Paper Holdings Co., Ltd.

(TSE/TYO:9849)

Select Model
Rating:39Underperform
Price Target:JPY 4,262.00â–¼(-4.55% Downside)
Action:reiterated
Date:08/11/26

Kyodo Paper Holdings scores near the bottom of the range, driven primarily by severely deteriorating financial performance — negative operating income, negligible net margins, volatile cash flows, and sub-1% ROE. The extremely high P/E of 80.7x on minimal earnings makes the valuation unattractive, offering poor risk-reward with only a 1.1% dividend yield as compensation. The debt-free balance sheet provides solvency protection but does not offset the lack of operational profitability or growth. Technicals are neutral with some overbought signals, offering no meaningful upside catalyst. Without a credible turnaround strategy or margin improvement plan, the stock presents significant fundamental risk at current levels.

Positive Factors
Conservative, debt-free balance sheetA debt-free balance sheet with gradually rising equity materially reduces financial and interest-rate risk. This durable strength supports capital allocation flexibility, resilience in downturns, and the ability to fund capex or return capital without relying on external borrowing.
Negative Factors
Weak operating profitabilityRepeated operating losses and low gross margins indicate structural pressure on core business profitability. Weak EBIT reduces reinvestment ability, limits margin expansion, and leaves little buffer against input-cost inflation or competitive pricing, harming long-term earnings power.

Kyodo Paper Holdings Co., Ltd. (9849) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%JP:9849-1.13%EWJ+17.00%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
JPY 3.02B
Dividend Yield
1.12%
Average Volume (3M)
310
Price to Earnings (P/E)
-179.3
Beta (1Y)
0.05
Revenue Growth
-4.50%
EPS Growth
-133.76%
Country
Japan
Employees
137
Sector
General
Sector Strength
55
Industry
Conglomerates

Kyodo Paper Holdings Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Kyodo Paper Holdings specializes in the distribution of paper and paper-based items. Beyond this core activity, the company maintains a diverse portfolio, encompassing paper processing, logistics services like warehousing and automobile transport, pr...

How the Company Makes Money

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Kyodo Paper Holdings Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial performance is very weak. The income statement score of 22 reflects negative operating income, razor-thin net margins (sub-0.25%), and declining revenue. The balance sheet score of 62 provides some support via zero debt and steady equity growth, but return on equity below 1% indicates poor capital efficiency. The cash flow score of 25 highlights highly volatile and unreliable cash generation, with free cash flow turning deeply negative in FY2025. Blending these three sub-scores, the overall financial picture is one of a company surviving on balance sheet conservatism rather than generating meaningful shareholder value.

Income Statement

22Negative

Balance Sheet

62Positive

Cash Flow

25Negative
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMMar 2026Mar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue16.25B16.45B16.89B16.73B17.02B14.09B
Gross Profit1.94B1.86B1.93B2.11B2.24B1.69B
EBITDA98.63M83.91M107.30M211.69M269.49M105.81M
Net Income-16.83M37.78M28.02M58.81M101.23M171.73M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets9.33B9.53B9.61B9.98B10.28B9.69B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.62B1.41B807.83M1.06B869.38M781.81M
Total Debt000000
Total Liabilities5.43B5.56B5.71B6.00B6.45B6.00B
Stockholders Equity3.90B3.97B3.90B3.98B3.83B3.69B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow059.27M-283.14M302.78M158.40M-357.15M
Operating Cash Flow061.19M-257.76M333.31M163.54M-325.24M
Investing Cash Flow0585.43M43.84M-100.29M-36.28M-256.72M
Financing Cash Flow0-41.51M-41.74M-38.90M-39.69M-172.63M

Kyodo Paper Holdings Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price4465.00

Price Trends

50DMA4494.60Negative
100DMA4486.45Negative
200DMA4503.85Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-4.70Negative
RSI44.72Neutral
STOCH58.89Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:9849, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4465.00 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4473.00, below the 50-day MA of 4494.60, and below the 200-day MA of 4503.85, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -4.70 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:9849.

Kyodo Paper Holdings Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)

Financial Indicators

JP:9849 against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
JP:8053JP:805379OutperformJPY 7.92T13.0013.18%2.38%2.61%3.34%
JP:8002JP:800270NeutralJPY 8.18T14.0413.68%2.33%10.23%13.04%
JP:8058JP:805867NeutralJPY 16.06T19.859.67%2.43%9.52%20.39%
JP:8001JP:800165NeutralJPY 18.10T17.9114.15%1.89%3.10%-3.40%
JP:8031JP:803163NeutralJPY 14.08T15.2510.95%2.80%6.52%16.70%
Sector *55Neutral$6.65B3.83-15.92%6.20%10.91%7.18%
JP:9849JP:984939UnderperformJPY 2.99B-179.32―1.12%-4.50%-133.76%

* General Sector Average

Performance Comparison

0%20%40%60%JP:9849JP:8001JP:8002JP:8031JP:8058JP:8053Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
JP:9849 and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
JP:9849Kyodo Paper Holdings Co., Ltd.4465.00-60.81-1.34%
JP:8001Itochu Corporation2326.50569.3732.40%
JP:8002Marubeni Corporation4929.001173.5531.25%
JP:8031Mitsui & Co5006.001336.3436.42%
JP:8058Mitsubishi Corporation4805.001316.5337.74%
JP:8053Sumitomo Corporation1684.00607.4156.42%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 11, 2026