Tokai Lease Co., Ltd. (9761) AI Stock Analysis

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Tokai Lease Co., Ltd.

(TSE/TYO:9761)

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Rating:67Neutral

Price Target:JPY 2,658.00▲(16.78% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:08/17/26

The overall score reflects a sharp contrast between deteriorating financial health and strong market positioning. The primary positive drivers are a highly attractive 4.9% dividend yield, a modest valuation (11.9x P/E), and robust bullish technical trends across all major moving averages. However, these are heavily weighed down by severe fundamental risks, including deeply negative free cash flow, margin contraction, and rising leverage. Investors must balance the compelling technical momentum and yield against underlying operational distress.

Positive Factors

Recurring rental and lifecycle servicesThe rental model can provide repeat corporate demand, while delivery, installation and removal services broaden revenue per project. Asset utilization and rental duration offer operating leverage when construction and event activity support demand.

Negative Factors

Severe revenue and margin deteriorationThe sharp revenue contraction and halving of gross margin weaken earnings visibility and suggest reduced rental economics, pricing pressure or cost absorption. Unless reversed, this can impair utilization, profitability and the returns generated by the asset base.

Tokai Lease Co., Ltd. (9761) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Market Cap: JPY 7.87B
Dividend Yield: 5.27%
Average Volume (3M): 3,989
Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.2
Beta (1Y): 0.46
Revenue Growth: 1.74%
EPS Growth: -37.04%
Country: Japan
Employees: 590
Sector: General
Sector Strength: 55
Industry: Real Estate - Services

Tokai Lease Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tokai Lease Co., Ltd., an Osaka, Japan-headquartered company established in 1963, specializes in the manufacturing, sale, and rental of temporary buildings, along with associated fixtures and fittings across Japan. Their extensive range includes "fla...

How the Company Makes Money

Tokai Lease primarily makes money by leasing and renting temporary facilities and equipment to corporate customers. Its core revenue stream is recurring rental/lease fees generated from providing prefabricated/temporary buildings and other site-use a...

Tokai Lease Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

The company faces significant fundamental challenges, highlighted by severe margin compression and consecutive years of deeply negative free cash flow. Despite resilient revenue scale, shrinking operating cash flows and rising debt burdens present notable liquidity and operational risks.

Income Statement

45Neutral

Balance Sheet

55Neutral

Cash Flow

25Negative

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2026	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	19.30B	18.86B	18.40B	17.18B	15.74B	16.42B
Gross Profit	2.03B	1.95B	3.95B	3.30B	2.30B	2.79B
EBITDA	3.16B	3.14B	3.28B	2.74B	2.02B	2.32B
Net Income	712.31M	723.22M	1.07B	675.33M	148.51M	324.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	38.90B	39.41B	36.66B	34.55B	31.29B	31.78B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.12B	3.57B	2.55B	2.38B	2.58B	2.49B
Total Debt	16.08B	17.18B	13.95B	12.41B	11.34B	11.52B
Total Liabilities	21.23B	21.75B	19.58B	18.32B	15.89B	16.25B
Stockholders Equity	17.50B	17.50B	16.92B	16.08B	15.26B	15.39B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0	-1.51B	-1.14B	-1.83B	664.30M	348.17M
Operating Cash Flow	0	695.97M	1.03B	1.19B	2.40B	2.42B
Investing Cash Flow	0	-2.16B	-1.82B	-3.59B	-1.93B	-1.02B
Financing Cash Flow	0	2.54B	958.49M	1.59B	-388.62M	-624.12M

Tokai Lease Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative

Last Price2276.00

Price Trends

50DMA2360.82Negative

100DMA2309.84Negative

200DMA2345.38Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-18.88Positive

RSI35.41Neutral

STOCH17.88Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:9761, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2276.00 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2321.40, below the 50-day MA of 2360.82, and below the 200-day MA of 2345.38, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -18.88 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.88 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:9761.

Tokai Lease Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (55)

Financial Indicators

JP:9761 against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JP:7187	81Outperform	JPY 23.30B	10.14	―	4.72%	24.76%	2.04%
JP:3276	77Outperform	JPY 36.73B	16.54	―	2.81%	0.43%	-2.62%
JP:3482	70Outperform	JPY 59.94B	5.75	―	2.97%	25.20%	12.84%
JP:9761	67Neutral	JPY 7.88B	11.15	―	5.27%	1.74%	-37.04%
JP:3252	60Neutral	JPY 57.44B	8.50	―	4.74%	36.85%	83.36%
Sector *	55Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%
JP:2980	51Neutral	JPY 35.85B	12.44	―	0.82%	43.47%	151.64%

* General Sector Average

Performance Comparison

JP:9761 and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
JP:9761	Tokai Lease Co., Ltd.	2276.00	130.80	6.10%
JP:2980	SRE Holdings Corp.	2195.00	-553.72	-20.14%
JP:3252	JINUSHI Co.,Ltd.	2639.00	-172.49	-6.14%
JP:3276	Japan Property Management Center Co.Ltd.	2245.00	1052.64	88.28%
JP:3482	Loadstar Capital KK	2409.00	137.48	6.05%
JP:7187	J-LEASE CO., LTD.	1271.00	-179.21	-12.36%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 17, 2026

Tokai Lease Co., Ltd. AI Stock Analysis