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GOLDCREST Co (8871) AI Stock Analysis

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JP:8871

GOLDCREST Co

(TSE/TYO:8871)

Select Model
Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:JPY 2,483.00â–¼(-1.15% Downside)
Action:reiterated
Date:10/30/26

The overall score is heavily pressured by critical financial weaknesses and extremely bearish technicals. The primary risk is the company's precarious cash flow position, with free cash flow deeply negative due to massive capital expenditures, forcing a surge in debt to dangerous levels. This is compounded by a persistent downtrend and weak momentum in the stock price. While the low P/E and high dividend yield offer a seemingly attractive valuation, this is likely a value trap given the underlying financial strain.

Positive Factors
Solid profitabilityHealthy net margins across several years indicate that the company has maintained meaningful profitability despite operating in a cyclical development industry. This provides an earnings base that can support reinvestment and help absorb moderate fluctuations in revenue or project timing.
Negative Factors
Sharp debt increaseThe sharp increase in total debt materially changes the company’s financial risk profile compared with 2025. Greater leverage can raise refinancing sensitivity, increase dependence on successful development execution, and reduce flexibility if real-estate conditions or project cash flows weaken.

GOLDCREST Co (8871) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%JP:8871-21.36%EWJ+13.61%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
JPY 682.98M
Dividend Yield
5.34%
Average Volume (3M)
84.94K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
9.8
Beta (1Y)
0.45
Revenue Growth
14.17%
EPS Growth
37.02%
Country
Japan
Employees
199
Sector
Real Estate
Sector Strength
65
Industry
Real Estate - Development

GOLDCREST Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

GOLDCREST Co.,Ltd., a company founded in 1968 and based in Tokyo, Japan, specializes in the conceptualization, construction, and marketing of new residential condominiums across the Japanese market.

GOLDCREST Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability is solid with improving margins, but the financial health is severely strained. The balance sheet is highly leveraged (D/E 1.24) and cash flows are deeply negative (FCF -Â¥108.1B) due to massive capex, creating significant financial risk that overshadows income statement gains.

Income Statement

58Neutral

Balance Sheet

35Negative

Cash Flow

25Negative
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMMar 2026Mar 2026Mar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023
Income Statement
Total Revenue27.95B29.29B30.45B24.84B27.45B34.24B
Gross Profit14.32B14.27B14.87B11.81B16.04B16.04B
EBITDA8.79B8.58B10.50B6.79B11.71B12.71B
Net Income5.16B5.01B5.86B3.75B7.03B7.60B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets228.09B222.69B323.03B203.81B189.24B200.47B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments71.48B77.64B58.42B78.20B74.71B82.71B
Total Debt81.05B76.13B168.53B47.66B46.85B43.35B
Total Liabilities93.23B88.92B187.05B72.39B58.80B73.32B
Stockholders Equity134.86B133.77B135.98B131.41B130.44B127.15B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0-8.77B-108.14B4.89B-4.21B18.24B
Operating Cash Flow0-8.46B-5.02B5.09B-4.11B18.35B
Investing Cash Flow0-15.37B-102.94B-179.00M2.13B-2.33B
Financing Cash Flow023.27B88.75B-1.43B-3.79B-4.53B

GOLDCREST Co Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price2512.00

Price Trends

50DMA2935.12Negative
100DMA3078.68Negative
200DMA3170.74Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-161.40Positive
RSI27.87Positive
STOCH10.63Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8871, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2512.00 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2695.75, below the 50-day MA of 2935.12, and below the 200-day MA of 3170.74, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -161.40 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 27.87 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.63 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:8871.

GOLDCREST Co Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

JP:8871 against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
JP:1847JP:184771OutperformJPY 46.54B6.51―4.52%14.95%58.56%
JP:3293JP:329371OutperformJPY 5.92B11.432.98%4.81%-12.15%-27.60%
Sector *65Neutral$2.17B12.193.79%4.94%3.15%1.96%
JP:1925JP:192563NeutralJPY 2.99T8.1712.78%6.01%8.23%19.10%
JP:3299JP:329955NeutralJPY 35.39B7.39―8.22%-2.46%-26.95%
JP:8897JP:889754NeutralJPY 53.22B5.8211.27%6.72%51.16%79.58%
JP:8871JP:887144NeutralJPY 82.43B9.796.08%5.34%14.17%37.02%

* Real Estate Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-20%0%20%40%60%JP:8871JP:1925JP:8897JP:3293JP:1847JP:3299Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
JP:8871 and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
JP:8871GOLDCREST Co 2512.00-672.57-21.12%
JP:1925Daiwa House Industry Co 2392.50-126.18-5.01%
JP:8897Takara Leben Co., Ltd.404.0042.1111.64%
JP:3293Azuma House Co., Ltd.725.00-8.89-1.21%
JP:1847Ichiken Co., Ltd.3185.001140.9555.82%
JP:3299Mugen Estate Co., Ltd.1477.00-335.23-18.50%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 30, 2026