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Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd (6464) AI Stock Analysis

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JP:6464

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd

(TSE/TYO:6464)

Select Model
Rating:43Neutral
Price Target:JPY 270.00â–²(2.66% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:08/19/26

The score is primarily constrained by sharply deteriorated profitability and compressed margins alongside elevated leverage and a weakened equity base, despite a revenue rebound. Technicals add downside pressure as the stock trades below all key moving averages with a negative MACD. Valuation offers limited support because the negative P/E reflects losses and there is no provided dividend yield.

Positive Factors
Precision-component market positionA specialized position in high-precision bearing components supports relevance across automotive and industrial applications. Global manufacturing and sales operations broaden customer access and provide an established platform for serving recurring equipment and machinery demand.
Negative Factors
Severe profitability deteriorationThe combination of a steep net loss, negative operating results, and sharply lower gross margin signals that current revenue is not translating into earnings. Persistent margin pressure could reduce reinvestment capacity and weaken the durability of the business model.

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd (6464) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%JP:6464-33.59%EWJ+10.02%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
JPY 10.10B
Dividend Yield
―
Average Volume (3M)
420.76K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
-0.4
Beta (1Y)
1.08
Revenue Growth
-1.43%
EPS Growth
-1450.24%
Country
Japan
Employees
2,447
Sector
Industrials
Sector Strength
63
Industry
Manufacturing - Metal Fabrication

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd., a global enterprise established in 1934 and headquartered in Katsuragi, Japan, specializes in the production and worldwide distribution of high-precision industrial components. The company operates through its principal d...

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue has rebounded strongly in TTM, but profitability has deteriorated sharply with a steep net loss, negative operating results, and heavy margin compression (gross margin down to ~6% from mid-teens). Leverage is elevated at ~2.4x debt-to-equity and equity has declined, increasing balance-sheet risk. Positive operating cash flow and free cash flow in TTM provide partial support, though free cash flow momentum weakened materially versus the prior annual period.

Income Statement

22Negative

Balance Sheet

38Negative

Cash Flow

46Neutral
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue70.64B69.84B75.92B80.34B79.04B67.93B
Gross Profit4.24B3.25B10.52B13.16B7.76B13.61B
EBITDA-5.35B-18.12B6.56B4.58B-4.81B9.38B
Net Income-26.15B-26.99B912.00M-1.29B-9.09B3.55B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets154.51B151.70B174.72B166.08B159.89B157.17B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments34.98B34.63B23.06B23.00B24.12B32.52B
Total Debt94.12B94.96B93.52B91.32B89.14B84.99B
Total Liabilities115.42B114.42B113.21B111.94B109.76B103.81B
Stockholders Equity39.09B37.27B61.47B54.11B50.10B53.34B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow4.38B8.65B1.17B-3.37B-9.79B3.87B
Operating Cash Flow6.54B10.52B4.87B1.41B-4.14B6.26B
Investing Cash Flow1.88B1.12B-3.80B-4.89B-3.50B-2.28B
Financing Cash Flow-935.00M-1.30B-1.91B1.39B-1.76B12.95B

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price263.00

Price Trends

50DMA323.18Negative
100DMA352.61Negative
200DMA347.07Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-12.52Positive
RSI23.98Positive
STOCH19.88Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:6464, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 263.00 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 297.60, below the 50-day MA of 323.18, and below the 200-day MA of 347.07, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -12.52 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 23.98 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.88 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:6464.

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

JP:6464 against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
JP:6136JP:613680OutperformJPY 317.79B10.1313.79%3.09%20.29%99.83%
JP:6101JP:610178OutperformJPY 175.53B8.72―3.06%23.70%56.28%
JP:6278JP:627867NeutralJPY 210.03B18.88―1.49%39.69%58.96%
JP:6474JP:647464NeutralJPY 122.01B12.724.67%1.95%8.26%102.64%
Sector *63Neutral$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
JP:6141JP:614152NeutralJPY 422.71B37.674.06%4.10%19.84%-58.57%
JP:6464JP:646443NeutralJPY 11.36B-0.39――-1.43%-1450.24%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

0%100%200%JP:6464JP:6141JP:6136JP:6474JP:6101JP:6278Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
JP:6464 and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
JP:6464Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd263.00-136.00-34.09%
JP:6141DMG MORI CO 2560.00-43.26-1.66%
JP:6136OSG Corp3200.001026.2447.21%
JP:6474Nachi-Fujikoshi Corp.4790.00947.5324.66%
JP:6101Tsugami Corp.3590.001006.7138.97%
JP:6278Union Tool Co.9750.001849.6023.41%

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd Corporate Events

Tsubaki Nakashima Announces Three Overseas Plant Closures

Nov 5, 2026

Tsubaki Nakashima manufactures and sells precision components for industrial markets, operating a global production network. The company’s reorganization is focused on strengthening cost competitiveness amid changing demand and competitive cond...

Tsubaki Nakashima Appoints New CHRO to Drive Next Phase of People Strategy

Sep 18, 2026

Tsubaki Nakashima announced a leadership change in its human resources function as it moves into the next phase of its business transformation, shifting focus from laying organizational foundations to embedding changes and driving continuous improvem...

Tsubaki Nakashima to Book ¥4.4 Billion Dividend Income from U.S. Subsidiary

Sep 10, 2026

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd. announced it will receive a dividend of 4,376,473,200 yen from its wholly owned U.S. subsidiary TN Americas Holdings, Inc., with payment expected by the end of September 2026. The internal dividend underscores the company&...

Tsubaki Nakashima Secures Waiver After Breaching Loan Covenants

Aug 10, 2026

Tsubaki Nakashima disclosed that it breached certain financial covenants on a loan agreement totaling 42,547 million yen as of June 30, 2026, related to required levels of consolidated net assets and the avoidance of operating losses. The company sub...

Tsubaki Nakashima Releases 1H FY2026 Results and Strategy Update

Aug 10, 2026

Tsubaki Nakashima has released its first-half fiscal 2026 financial results presentation, which also reviews progress under its Mid-Term Business Plan for 2025–2029. The materials, presented in English as a translation of the original Japanese...

Tsubaki Nakashima lifts profits but stays in loss as it targets 2026 turnaround

Aug 10, 2026

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd. is a Japan-based manufacturer listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that operates under IFRS standards. The company is known for precision components, particularly balls and related products used in industrial and automotive...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 19, 2026