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Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd (6464) AI Stock Analysis

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JP:6464

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd

(TSE/TYO:6464)

Select Model
Rating:39Underperform
Price Target:JPY 262.00â–¼(-5.42% Downside)
Action:downgraded
Date:08/19/26

The overall score reflects severe fundamental and technical headwinds. The most significant risks include massive net losses, a highly leveraged balance sheet, and a deeply negative valuation profile. Technical momentum is firmly bearish as the stock struggles below all key moving averages. The company's only major mitigating strength is its ability to maintain positive free cash flow amidst broader distress.

Positive Factors
Specialized precision manufacturingA focused position in high-precision bearing and rolling-element components gives the company an established role in automotive and industrial machinery supply chains. Its global manufacturing and sales operations provide a platform to serve customers across multiple regions over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Severe profitability deteriorationDeep losses and sharp gross-margin compression indicate that the recent revenue rebound is not translating into healthy earnings. Persistently weak margins can reduce internally funded investment, limit resilience, and make recovery dependent on materially improving costs or pricing power.

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd (6464) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%JP:6464-22.84%EWJ+16.06%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
JPY 10.60B
Dividend Yield
―
Average Volume (3M)
352.03K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
-0.4
Beta (1Y)
1.09
Revenue Growth
-1.43%
EPS Growth
-1450.24%
Country
Japan
Employees
2,447
Sector
Industrials
Sector Strength
63
Industry
Manufacturing - Metal Fabrication

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd., a global enterprise established in 1934 and headquartered in Katsuragi, Japan, specializes in the production and worldwide distribution of high-precision industrial components. The company operates through its principal d...

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial health is severely distressed due to massive net losses and deteriorating equity, pushing the debt-to-equity ratio to an elevated 2.41x. However, the ability to generate positive operating and free cash flows provides a crucial lifeline and suggests a significant portion of losses stems from non-cash accounting charges.

Income Statement

15Very Negative

Balance Sheet

25Negative

Cash Flow

70Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue70.64B69.84B75.92B80.34B79.04B67.93B
Gross Profit4.24B3.25B10.52B13.16B7.76B13.61B
EBITDA-5.35B-18.12B6.56B4.58B-4.81B9.38B
Net Income-26.15B-26.99B912.00M-1.29B-9.09B3.55B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets154.51B151.70B174.72B166.08B159.89B157.17B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments34.98B34.63B23.06B23.00B24.12B32.52B
Total Debt94.12B94.96B93.52B91.32B89.14B84.99B
Total Liabilities115.42B114.42B113.21B111.94B109.76B103.81B
Stockholders Equity39.09B37.27B61.47B54.11B50.10B53.34B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow4.38B8.65B1.17B-3.37B-9.79B3.87B
Operating Cash Flow6.54B10.52B4.87B1.41B-4.14B6.26B
Investing Cash Flow1.88B1.12B-3.80B-4.89B-3.50B-2.28B
Financing Cash Flow-935.00M-1.30B-1.91B1.39B-1.76B12.95B

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price277.00

Price Trends

50DMA315.16Negative
100DMA346.30Negative
200DMA344.42Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-11.65Negative
RSI35.15Neutral
STOCH59.68Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:6464, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 277.00 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 286.80, below the 50-day MA of 315.16, and below the 200-day MA of 344.42, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -11.65 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 35.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:6464.

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

JP:6464 against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
JP:6101JP:610178OutperformJPY 179.83B8.18―2.84%27.72%68.33%
JP:6136JP:613677OutperformJPY 328.91B11.0713.79%2.83%20.29%99.83%
JP:6278JP:627868NeutralJPY 232.24B17.58―1.26%46.79%74.98%
Sector *63Neutral$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
JP:6474JP:647458NeutralJPY 126.06B13.954.67%1.90%8.26%102.64%
JP:6141JP:614152NeutralJPY 406.55B38.684.06%3.99%19.84%-58.57%
JP:6464JP:646439UnderperformJPY 11.32B-0.41――-1.43%-1450.24%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

0%100%200%JP:6464JP:6141JP:6136JP:6474JP:6101JP:6278Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
JP:6464 and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
JP:6464Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd277.00-89.00-24.32%
JP:6141DMG MORI CO 2629.00-4.68-0.18%
JP:6136OSG Corp3497.001359.3563.59%
JP:6474Nachi-Fujikoshi Corp.5250.001412.4036.80%
JP:6101Tsugami Corp.3875.001207.7545.28%
JP:6278Union Tool Co.11470.003945.3452.43%

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd Corporate Events

Tsubaki Nakashima Discloses Syndicated Loan Terms and Financial Covenants

Nov 13, 2026

The release details a planned ¥32.8 billion syndicated term loan whose proceeds are intended for business purposes, including refinancing existing borrowings. The disclosed terms call for lump-sum repayment at maturity and list real estate at the Kat...

Tsubaki Nakashima Announces Partial Early Redemption of Convertible Bond

Nov 13, 2026

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd. announced it has decided on a partial early redemption of its 1st Series unsecured convertible bonds with stock acquisition rights, issued on November 9, 2023. The redemption is scheduled for December 2, 2026, and covers o...

Tsubaki Nakashima Records European Impairment and Third-Quarter Charges

Nov 13, 2026

Tsubaki Nakashima has European production plants and is discussed in the context of the bearing and ball markets. The company recognized a ¥7.8 billion impairment loss in the third quarter, mainly reflecting weaker cash-flow valuations at plants in S...

Tsubaki Nakashima Reports Higher Sales and Nine-Month Loss

Nov 13, 2026

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd., listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, reported unaudited consolidated results for the nine months ended September 30, 2026. Sales rose 3.9% year over year to ¥54.832 billion, while the company posted an operating loss of ¥5...

Tsubaki Nakashima FY2026 Q3 Financial Results Presentation

Nov 13, 2026

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd. is identified in the supplied material by code 6464 and the TSE Prime Market; the text does not specify its industry, primary products or services, or market focus.Dated November 13, 2026, the presentation covers FY2026 th...

Tsubaki Nakashima Announces Three Overseas Plant Closures

Nov 5, 2026

Tsubaki Nakashima manufactures and sells precision components for industrial markets, operating a global production network. The company’s reorganization is focused on strengthening cost competitiveness amid changing demand and competitive conditions...

Tsubaki Nakashima Appoints New CHRO to Drive Next Phase of People Strategy

Sep 18, 2026

Tsubaki Nakashima announced a leadership change in its human resources function as it moves into the next phase of its business transformation, shifting focus from laying organizational foundations to embedding changes and driving continuous improvem...

Tsubaki Nakashima to Book ¥4.4 Billion Dividend Income from U.S. Subsidiary

Sep 10, 2026

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd. announced it will receive a dividend of 4,376,473,200 yen from its wholly owned U.S. subsidiary TN Americas Holdings, Inc., with payment expected by the end of September 2026. The internal dividend underscores the company’...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 19, 2026