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Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd (6464) AI Stock Analysis

JP:6464

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd

(TSE/TYO:6464)

Select Model
Rating:38Underperform
Price Target:JPY 271.00â–¼(-5.90% Downside)
Action:downgraded
Date:08/19/26

The company is in severe financial distress, marked by deep unprofitability and a highly leveraged balance sheet that is rapidly destroying shareholder equity. This is the primary driver of the low score. Technical trends confirm persistent bearish momentum, and the negative P/E ratio offers no valuation support. The modest positive cash flow is the only mitigating factor but is insufficient to offset the overwhelming fundamental risks.

Positive Factors
Revenue reboundThe TTM revenue rebound indicates that demand and customer activity have improved despite the company’s profitability challenges. If sustained, stronger sales can provide operating scale, support fixed-cost absorption, and create a foundation for restoring margins over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Severe profitability deteriorationThe sharp decline in gross margin and move to negative operating results indicate that current revenue is not translating into sustainable earnings. Persistent cost pressure or weak pricing power could limit reinvestment, weaken resilience, and delay a durable recovery in profitability.

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd (6464) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%JP:6464-26.53%EWJ+15.87%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
JPY 11.02B
Dividend Yield
―
Average Volume (3M)
419.76K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
-0.4
Beta (1Y)
1.08
Revenue Growth
-1.43%
EPS Growth
-1450.24%
Country
Japan
Employees
2,447
Sector
Industrials
Sector Strength
63
Industry
Manufacturing - Metal Fabrication

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd., a global enterprise established in 1934 and headquartered in Katsuragi, Japan, specializes in the production and worldwide distribution of high-precision industrial components. The company operates through its principal d...

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial health is critically weak. The income statement shows a collapse in profitability with a -37% net margin and massive operating losses. The balance sheet is highly leveraged (D/E 2.41x) with rapidly eroding equity. Positive operating cash flow provides a minimal buffer but is declining sharply.

Income Statement

18Very Negative

Balance Sheet

22Negative

Cash Flow

35Negative
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue70.64B69.84B75.92B80.34B79.04B67.93B
Gross Profit4.24B3.25B10.52B13.16B7.76B13.61B
EBITDA-5.35B-18.12B6.56B4.58B-4.81B9.38B
Net Income-26.15B-26.99B912.00M-1.29B-9.09B3.55B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets154.51B151.70B174.72B166.08B159.89B157.17B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments34.98B34.63B23.06B23.00B24.12B32.52B
Total Debt94.12B94.96B93.52B91.32B89.14B84.99B
Total Liabilities115.42B114.42B113.21B111.94B109.76B103.81B
Stockholders Equity39.09B37.27B61.47B54.11B50.10B53.34B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow4.38B8.65B1.17B-3.37B-9.79B3.87B
Operating Cash Flow6.54B10.52B4.87B1.41B-4.14B6.26B
Investing Cash Flow1.88B1.12B-3.80B-4.89B-3.50B-2.28B
Financing Cash Flow-935.00M-1.30B-1.91B1.39B-1.76B12.95B

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price288.00

Price Trends

50DMA327.38Negative
100DMA355.91Negative
200DMA348.25Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-12.53Positive
RSI28.24Positive
STOCH15.00Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:6464, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 288.00 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 304.10, below the 50-day MA of 327.38, and below the 200-day MA of 348.25, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -12.53 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 28.24 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.00 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:6464.

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

JP:6464 against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
JP:6101JP:610172OutperformJPY 195.24B10.47―2.55%23.70%56.28%
JP:6136JP:613670OutperformJPY 324.83B11.1113.79%2.82%20.29%99.83%
JP:6278JP:627870OutperformJPY 239.25B23.78―1.18%39.69%58.96%
JP:6474JP:647464NeutralJPY 127.48B14.244.67%1.87%8.26%102.64%
Sector *63Neutral$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
JP:6141JP:614152NeutralJPY 427.08B15.884.06%3.84%19.84%-58.57%
JP:6464JP:646438UnderperformJPY 11.69B-0.43――-1.43%-1450.24%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

0%100%200%JP:6464JP:6141JP:6136JP:6474JP:6101JP:6278Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
JP:6464 and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
JP:6464Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd288.00-104.00-26.53%
JP:6141DMG MORI CO 2736.00418.9818.08%
JP:6136OSG Corp3508.001353.0262.79%
JP:6474Nachi-Fujikoshi Corp.5360.001507.7739.14%
JP:6101Tsugami Corp.4310.001636.8961.24%
JP:6278Union Tool Co.12280.004162.0651.27%

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd Corporate Events

Tsubaki Nakashima Appoints New CHRO to Drive Next Phase of People Strategy

Sep 18, 2026

Tsubaki Nakashima announced a leadership change in its human resources function as it moves into the next phase of its business transformation, shifting focus from laying organizational foundations to embedding changes and driving continuous improvem...

Tsubaki Nakashima to Book ¥4.4 Billion Dividend Income from U.S. Subsidiary

Sep 10, 2026

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd. announced it will receive a dividend of 4,376,473,200 yen from its wholly owned U.S. subsidiary TN Americas Holdings, Inc., with payment expected by the end of September 2026. The internal dividend underscores the company&...

Tsubaki Nakashima Secures Waiver After Breaching Loan Covenants

Aug 10, 2026

Tsubaki Nakashima disclosed that it breached certain financial covenants on a loan agreement totaling 42,547 million yen as of June 30, 2026, related to required levels of consolidated net assets and the avoidance of operating losses. The company sub...

Tsubaki Nakashima Releases 1H FY2026 Results and Strategy Update

Aug 10, 2026

Tsubaki Nakashima has released its first-half fiscal 2026 financial results presentation, which also reviews progress under its Mid-Term Business Plan for 2025–2029. The materials, presented in English as a translation of the original Japanese...

Tsubaki Nakashima lifts profits but stays in loss as it targets 2026 turnaround

Aug 10, 2026

Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd. is a Japan-based manufacturer listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that operates under IFRS standards. The company is known for precision components, particularly balls and related products used in industrial and automotive...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 19, 2026