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Hokuetsu Metal Co., Ltd. (5446) AI Stock Analysis

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JP:5446

Hokuetsu Metal Co., Ltd.

(TSE/TYO:5446)

Select Model
Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:JPY 1,076.00▲(7.17% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:08/17/26

The score is held back primarily by weakened and volatile profitability (FY2026 loss) and bearish technicals (price below major moving averages with negative MACD). The main offset is a relatively strong balance sheet with low leverage and recently positive free cash flow, but valuation is also constrained by a negative P/E and a low dividend yield.

Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheetLow leverage reduces financial risk and gives Hokuetsu Metal greater flexibility to withstand steel-market downturns, fund operations, and pursue necessary investment without relying heavily on additional borrowing.
Negative Factors
Revenue and profitability deteriorationThe latest deterioration points to weaker demand or pricing power and reduces earnings visibility. Sustained revenue contraction and negative margins could constrain reinvestment, weaken returns, and prolong the recovery.

Hokuetsu Metal Co., Ltd. (5446) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

-20%-10%0%10%20%30%JP:5446-18.70%EWJ+15.75%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
JPY 3.84B
Dividend Yield
0.80%
Average Volume (3M)
10.07K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
-7.0
Beta (1Y)
0.24
Revenue Growth
-9.95%
EPS Growth
-302.38%
Country
Japan
Employees
483
Sector
General
Sector Strength
55
Industry
Steel

Hokuetsu Metal Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

HOKUETSU METAL Co., Ltd., based in Nagaoka, Japan, is a multifaceted enterprise engaged in the manufacturing, fabrication, and distribution of iron and steel products across the country. Its primary steel offerings include various steel bars for rein...

How the Company Makes Money

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Hokuetsu Metal Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are mixed: a weak and volatile income statement (FY2026 swung to a loss with negative operating and net margins) is partly offset by a conservatively financed balance sheet (low debt-to-equity ~0.12) and improved but still cyclical cash generation (positive operating and free cash flow in FY2025–FY2026, but volatile historically).

Income Statement

42Neutral

Balance Sheet

72Positive

Cash Flow

55Neutral
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMMar 2026Mar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue27.20B23.60B28.73B31.82B31.04B27.36B
Gross Profit3.73B2.69B3.85B3.67B4.17B2.14B
EBITDA1.75B752.67M1.86B1.77B2.20B243.67M
Net Income506.66M-339.42M572.17M467.90M1.01B-967.69M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets26.34B25.85B26.69B28.76B27.96B26.54B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.08B2.29B2.24B2.77B2.25B2.71B
Total Debt2.58B2.22B2.72B3.78B3.82B3.77B
Total Liabilities8.65B7.93B8.90B11.79B11.54B11.16B
Stockholders Equity17.69B17.91B17.79B16.97B16.42B15.37B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0868.16M611.88M657.82M-469.24M-4.52B
Operating Cash Flow01.66B1.62B2.03B898.68M-2.47B
Investing Cash Flow0-964.00M-1.03B-1.13B-1.28B-2.02B
Financing Cash Flow0-648.73M-1.12B-380.25M-74.78M1.00B

Hokuetsu Metal Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price1004.00

Price Trends

50DMA1056.76Negative
100DMA1092.29Negative
200DMA1175.14Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-16.51Negative
RSI38.50Neutral
STOCH11.42Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:5446, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1004.00 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1018.15, below the 50-day MA of 1056.76, and below the 200-day MA of 1175.14, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -16.51 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 38.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.42 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:5446.

Hokuetsu Metal Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)

Financial Indicators

JP:5446 against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
JP:5445JP:544579OutperformJPY 47.98B7.31―5.59%-2.19%-34.09%
JP:5463JP:546371OutperformJPY 387.96B12.61―3.14%4.20%2.18%
JP:5440JP:544067NeutralJPY 73.58B9.65―5.27%6.83%-31.05%
JP:5410JP:541063NeutralJPY 35.34B9.34―4.95%-1.00%-66.17%
JP:5408JP:540858NeutralJPY 34.46B9.49―3.70%-6.05%-30.30%
Sector *55Neutral$6.65B3.83-15.92%6.20%10.91%7.18%
JP:5446JP:544651NeutralJPY 3.83B-7.03―0.80%-9.95%-302.38%

* General Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-20%0%20%40%JP:5446JP:5408JP:5410JP:5440JP:5445JP:5463Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
JP:5446 and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
JP:5446Hokuetsu Metal Co., Ltd.1004.00-235.00-18.97%
JP:5408Nakayama Steel Works,Ltd.514.00-44.90-8.03%
JP:5410Godo Steel,Ltd.2424.00-1148.71-32.15%
JP:5440Kyoei Steel Ltd.1708.00-487.64-22.21%
JP:5445Tokyo Tekko Co., Ltd.1907.00139.317.88%
JP:5463Maruichi Steel Tube Ltd.1638.50347.1726.88%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 17, 2026