BP Castrol K.K. (5015) AI Stock Analysis

1 Followers

BP Castrol K.K.

(TSE/TYO:5015)

Select Model

Rating:75Outperform

Price Target:JPY 1,130.00▲(13.11% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:11/05/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial resilience (notably the zero-debt balance sheet) and improving 2025 profitability, partially offset by weaker cash-flow consistency and cash conversion versus earnings. Technicals are mildly supportive with price holding above major moving averages but momentum remains neutral. Valuation is helped by a high dividend yield, though the P/E is only mid-range rather than clearly discounted.

Positive Factors

Zero-debt balance sheetA zero-debt balance sheet materially reduces leverage and refinancing risk, preserving financial flexibility through business cycles. Stable equity provides a solid base for continued operations, investment, and shareholder distributions without dependence on borrowing.

Negative Factors

Profitability below prior peakAlthough profitability improved recently, margins remain materially below the 2020–2021 peak. This indicates that the company has not fully restored earlier earnings power and may face a structurally lower profit base or continued pressure across its business model.

BP Castrol K.K. (5015) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Market Cap: JPY 22.98B
Dividend Yield: 5.41%
Average Volume (3M): 7,673
Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.8
Beta (1Y): 0.20
Revenue Growth: 13.77%
EPS Growth: 36.07%
Country: Japan
Employees: 91
Sector: General
Sector Strength: 55
Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

BP Castrol K.K. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Operating in Japan, BP Castrol K.K. specializes in the production and distribution of a wide array of automotive lubrication products. Its comprehensive portfolio includes essential vehicle fluids like gasoline and diesel engine oils, automotive gear...

How the Company Makes Money

BP Castrol K.K. primarily makes money by selling lubricant products in Japan. Its key revenue streams are (1) automotive lubricants sold for passenger cars and motorcycles (e.g., engine oils and other vehicle fluids) through retail and wholesale chan...

BP Castrol K.K. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are anchored by a very conservative balance sheet (zero debt) and improving profitability in 2025 (higher EBIT and net margins versus 2022–2024). Offsetting this, profitability remains below the 2020–2021 peak and cash flow conversion has been inconsistent, with operating cash flow modest relative to earnings despite stronger 2025 free cash flow.

Income Statement

72Positive

Balance Sheet

93Very Positive

Cash Flow

64Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	11.81B	14.69B	13.65B	12.04B	11.19B	11.09B
Gross Profit	4.51B	5.49B	4.94B	4.60B	4.62B	5.80B
EBITDA	1.06B	1.72B	1.55B	1.25B	991.69M	2.39B
Net Income	630.07M	1.05B	932.53M	781.50M	572.53M	1.55B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.52B	12.99B	13.44B	12.81B	12.75B	13.57B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	223.00M	195.62M	777.45M	1.27B	1.70B	1.02B
Total Debt	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total Liabilities	2.74B	2.91B	3.43B	2.84B	2.67B	2.64B
Stockholders Equity	9.78B	10.08B	10.01B	9.97B	10.08B	10.93B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0	780.14M	408.69M	451.20M	104.37M	1.09B
Operating Cash Flow	0	895.32M	516.61M	645.39M	378.65M	1.20B
Investing Cash Flow	0	375.04M	-122.66M	-193.54M	1.72B	-114.38M
Financing Cash Flow	0	-985.33M	-894.21M	-893.74M	-1.42B	-1.58B

BP Castrol K.K. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative

Last Price999.00

Price Trends

50DMA999.72Negative

100DMA997.01Positive

200DMA983.69Positive

Market Momentum

MACD0.04Positive

RSI49.17Neutral

STOCH72.22Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:5015, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 999.00 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1000.25, below the 50-day MA of 999.72, and above the 200-day MA of 983.69, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.22 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:5015.

BP Castrol K.K. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (55)

Financial Indicators

JP:5015 against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JP:5015	75Outperform	JPY 22.96B	16.78	―	5.41%	13.77%	36.07%
JP:8132	73Outperform	JPY 74.43B	14.54	―	2.69%	9.16%	54.04%
JP:5019	71Outperform	JPY 1.61T	3.42	21.79%	2.78%	10.18%	1090.69%
JP:8131	71Outperform	JPY 149.40B	15.02	―	2.47%	3.98%	-26.10%
JP:8133	67Neutral	JPY 231.97B	9.83	―	3.34%	1.89%	46.71%
JP:5020	64Neutral	JPY 3.32T	4.75	20.51%	2.72%	10.12%	221.45%
Sector *	55Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%

* General Sector Average

Performance Comparison

JP:5015 and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
JP:5015	BP Castrol K.K.	999.00	89.57	9.85%
JP:5019	Idemitsu Kosan Co	1295.00	181.35	16.28%
JP:5020	Eneos Holdings, Inc.	1249.00	219.89	21.37%
JP:8131	Mitsuuroko Group Holdings Co., Ltd.	2624.00	483.43	22.58%
JP:8132	SINANEN HOLDINGS CO.LTD.	7060.00	524.36	8.02%
JP:8133	ITOCHU ENEX CO., LTD.	2068.00	290.36	16.33%

BP Castrol K.K. Corporate Events

BP Castrol Reports Stronger Nine-Month 2026 Earnings

Nov 6, 2026

BP Castrol K.K. reported nine-month 2026 net sales of ¥12.726 billion, up 19.3% from a year earlier, while operating profit increased 33.4% to ¥1.514 billion. Ordinary profit rose 31.8% to ¥1.597 billion, and net profit climbed 41.6% to ¥1.074 billio...

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 05, 2026

BP Castrol K.K. AI Stock Analysis