Kawakami Paint Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (4616) AI Stock Analysis

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Kawakami Paint Manufacturing Co., Ltd.

(TSE/TYO:4616)

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Rating:59Neutral

Price Target:JPY 3,924.00▼(-4.06% Downside)

Action:reiterated

Date:10/20/26

The score is held back primarily by deteriorating profitability and weak/volatile free cash flow, despite a moderately improving balance sheet. These fundamental risks outweigh the positives from strong technical momentum and an inexpensive valuation (low P/E), resulting in a mid-range overall score.

Positive Factors

Industrial coatings nicheKawakami operates in an industrial coatings niche where products protect and finish manufactured goods and infrastructure. These performance-led applications can support recurring customer demand because durability, corrosion resistance, and finishing quality are important operating requirements.

Negative Factors

Margin compressionProfitability has deteriorated materially, with both net and operating margins falling from 2024 and earlier levels. Thin margins leave limited room to absorb cost pressure or weaker pricing, making earnings more vulnerable and reducing the cash available for reinvestment.

Kawakami Paint Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (4616) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Market Cap: JPY 4.15B
Dividend Yield: 1.09%
Average Volume (3M): 10.23K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.6
Beta (1Y): 0.12
Revenue Growth: 12.28%
EPS Growth: 310.34%
Country: Japan
Employees: 132
Sector: General
Sector Strength: 55
Industry: Industrial - Specialties

Kawakami Paint Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Kawakami Paint Manufacturing Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacture and sale of paints. Its products include heat insulating paints, ultra low temperature powder, water based paint, construction coatings, rust prevention paint, fire proofing materials,...

Kawakami Paint Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are constrained by weakening profitability and poor cash conversion. The income statement shows margin compression (net margin ~1.2% and EBIT margin ~1.9% in 2025), and cash flow is the biggest concern with free cash flow near breakeven in 2025 and negative in 2023–2024. The balance sheet is healthier with moderating leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.57), but low ROE (~2.2% in 2025) limits overall quality.

Income Statement

54Neutral

Balance Sheet

63Positive

Cash Flow

38Negative

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Nov 2025	Nov 2024	Nov 2023	Nov 2022	Nov 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.57B	5.93B	5.91B	6.14B	5.63B	5.31B
Gross Profit	1.56B	1.27B	1.30B	1.36B	1.35B	1.30B
EBITDA	795.95M	270.58M	375.25M	362.13M	343.99M	359.22M
Net Income	492.03M	72.32M	170.58M	203.00M	162.21M	146.16M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.03B	8.67B	8.69B	8.58B	8.18B	7.82B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.48B	1.89B	1.91B	1.90B	2.04B	2.02B
Total Debt	1.91B	1.91B	1.91B	1.86B	1.89B	2.00B
Total Liabilities	5.22B	5.34B	5.48B	5.53B	5.46B	5.29B
Stockholders Equity	3.81B	3.33B	3.22B	3.06B	2.72B	2.53B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0	7.72M	-125.00M	-71.93M	139.36M	403.91M
Operating Cash Flow	0	283.93M	139.53M	165.67M	206.13M	447.29M
Investing Cash Flow	0	-277.39M	-148.76M	-242.76M	-66.87M	-45.54M
Financing Cash Flow	0	-33.01M	20.49M	-62.70M	-121.80M	-44.91M

Kawakami Paint Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive

Last Price4090.00

Price Trends

50DMA3099.98Positive

100DMA2533.88Positive

200DMA2212.47Positive

Market Momentum

MACD258.30Positive

RSI63.75Neutral

STOCH60.06Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4616, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4090.00 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3875.45, above the 50-day MA of 3099.98, and above the 200-day MA of 2212.47, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 258.30 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 63.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:4616.

Kawakami Paint Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (55)

Financial Indicators

JP:4616 against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JP:4619	76Outperform	JPY 56.43B	9.74	―	4.95%	-3.74%	19.78%
JP:4623	74Outperform	JPY 5.99B	8.25	―	3.37%	30.70%	20.84%
JP:4624	67Neutral	JPY 5.90B	8.09	―	1.25%	6.21%	51.54%
JP:4616	59Neutral	JPY 4.03B	8.58	―	1.09%	12.28%	310.34%
JP:4611	56Neutral	JPY 51.79B	14.10	―	3.18%	20.42%	-54.42%
Sector *	55Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%
JP:4615	50Neutral	JPY 4.97B	-13.68	―	―	1.61%	-84.56%

* General Sector Average

Performance Comparison

JP:4616 and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
JP:4616	Kawakami Paint Manufacturing Co., Ltd.	4090.00	1788.60	77.72%
JP:4611	Dai Nippon Toryo Company, Limited	1823.00	609.71	50.25%
JP:4615	Shinto Paint Co., Ltd.	145.00	17.00	13.28%
JP:4619	Nihon Tokushu Toryo Co., Ltd.	2626.00	562.99	27.29%
JP:4623	Asahipen Corporation	1780.00	117.40	7.06%
JP:4624	Isamu Paint Co., Ltd.	4000.00	466.54	13.20%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 20, 2026

Kawakami Paint Manufacturing Co., Ltd. AI Stock Analysis