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Tomoku Co., Ltd. (3946) AI Stock Analysis

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JP:3946

Tomoku Co., Ltd.

(TSE/TYO:3946)

Select Model
Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:JPY 4,346.00▲(1.66% Upside)
Action:downgraded
Date:11/10/26

The score is driven primarily by solid (but not high-conviction) financial performance—improving margins and gradually declining leverage—tempered by inconsistent free cash flow and modest cash conversion. Valuation is a key positive with a low P/E and strong dividend yield, while technical indicators are a notable headwind due to bearish trend signals and weak momentum.

Positive Factors
Improving ProfitabilityImproving gross and EBIT margins indicate better operating performance and some ability to retain more revenue as profit. If sustained, this trend can strengthen earnings resilience, support reinvestment in packaging capacity, and help offset moderate changes in customer demand or input costs over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Thin Net MarginsAlthough gross and EBIT margins improved, a net margin of about 3.3% leaves limited room for operating setbacks to be absorbed. Changes in paper and energy costs, packaging demand, or pricing execution could therefore produce a disproportionate effect on earnings and reduce the durability of reported profitability.

Tomoku Co., Ltd. (3946) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%JP:3946+32.35%EWJ+15.75%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
JPY 69.09B
Dividend Yield
3.51%
Average Volume (3M)
71.26K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
9.2
Beta (1Y)
0.71
Revenue Growth
-2.52%
EPS Growth
4.24%
Country
Japan
Employees
3,965
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Sector Strength
61
Industry
Packaging & Containers

Tomoku Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tomoku Co., Ltd., established in 1940 and based in Tokyo, Japan, is a diversified corporation with a core business in manufacturing and supplying essential packaging products, such as corrugated materials and paper containers. These solutions are cri...

How the Company Makes Money

Tomoku primarily makes money by manufacturing and selling corrugated packaging and related paper-based packaging products to corporate customers. Its main revenue stream is the sale of corrugated cardboard cases and other corrugated packaging tailore...

Tomoku Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Positive operating trend with steady revenue growth and improving profitability (gross margin ~18.1% and EBIT margin ~5.1% in 2026). Balance sheet leverage is moderating (debt-to-equity ~0.69), but overall strength is held back by weak cash-flow quality: free cash flow has been volatile and in 2026 covered only ~35% of net income.

Income Statement

72Positive

Balance Sheet

64Positive

Cash Flow

48Neutral
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMMar 2026Mar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue221.87B224.09B219.61B211.53B212.82B206.01B
Gross Profit40.86B40.60B36.94B34.80B33.58B33.89B
EBITDA20.09B19.84B17.33B15.81B14.82B15.50B
Net Income7.60B7.36B6.51B5.31B5.25B5.98B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets219.80B223.84B206.82B213.37B195.38B190.02B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments14.56B23.96B21.00B18.13B15.02B16.70B
Total Debt68.56B70.21B68.51B74.23B71.16B68.93B
Total Liabilities117.34B120.87B113.45B124.16B114.67B113.89B
Stockholders Equity102.24B102.15B92.73B88.62B80.20B75.66B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow05.37B7.80B4.05B-2.42B-994.00M
Operating Cash Flow015.17B18.14B11.12B7.01B16.70B
Investing Cash Flow0-10.65B-8.26B-9.29B-9.39B-18.22B
Financing Cash Flow0-2.18B-7.05B1.05B535.00M4.12B

Tomoku Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNeutral
Last Price4275.00

Price Trends

50DMA4357.97Negative
100DMA4283.75Negative
200DMA3888.05Positive

Market Momentum

MACD-54.23Positive
RSI46.15Neutral
STOCH48.03Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3946, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 4275.00 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4364.00, below the 50-day MA of 4357.97, and above the 200-day MA of 3888.05, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -54.23 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JP:3946.

Tomoku Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

JP:3946 against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
JP:3950JP:395083OutperformJPY 89.49B14.87―2.57%5.15%5.91%
JP:7942JP:794278OutperformJPY 75.41B8.03―3.45%14.19%90.30%
JP:3954JP:395476OutperformJPY 13.63B7.83―1.82%5.61%41.64%
JP:3951JP:395169NeutralJPY 19.80B10.83―4.25%2.37%42.02%
JP:3946JP:394662NeutralJPY 69.26B9.15―3.51%-2.52%4.24%
Sector *61Neutral$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
JP:7917JP:791758NeutralJPY 101.79B11.508.74%2.85%7.89%26.59%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

0%20%40%JP:3946JP:7917JP:3950JP:3951JP:3954JP:7942Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
JP:3946 and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
JP:3946Tomoku Co., Ltd.4275.001025.6831.57%
JP:7917Fujimori Kogyo Co 1335.00275.2125.97%
JP:3950Pack Corporation1515.00306.8425.40%
JP:3951Asahi Printing Co., Ltd.894.0055.696.64%
JP:3954SHOWA PAXXS CORP.3015.00158.655.55%
JP:7942JSP Corporation3105.001053.7651.37%

Tomoku Co., Ltd. Corporate Events

Tomoku Reports Higher Profit Despite First-Half Sales Decline

Nov 9, 2026

Tomoku Co., Ltd. reported consolidated sales of ¥102,993 million for the six months ended September 30, 2026, down 5.6% year on year, while operating profit rose 7.6% to ¥4,810 million and profit attributable to owners increased 11.8% to ¥3,113 milli...

Tomoku Lifts Profits and Dividends Despite Lower Sales in First Half 2026

Oct 30, 2026

For the six months ended September 30, 2026, Tomoku reported net sales of ¥102,993 million, down 5.6% year on year, but achieved higher profitability, with operating profit rising 7.6% to ¥4,810 million and profit attributable to owners of parent up...

Tomoku Completes ¥1.5 Billion Share Buyback on TSE

Aug 25, 2026

Tomoku Co., Ltd., a Prime Market-listed packaging manufacturer best known for corrugated cardboard and related materials, plays a key role in Japan’s logistics and manufacturing supply chains. Its customer base spans a wide range of industries that r...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 10, 2026