Mitsubishi Paper Mills (3864) AI Stock Analysis

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Mitsubishi Paper Mills

(TSE/TYO:3864)

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Rating:54Neutral

Price Target:JPY 1,271.00▲(7.44% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:10/22/26

The score is held back primarily by weakening profitability in 2026 and inconsistent cash-flow generation, despite an improving leverage profile. Technicals are a meaningful offset, with price trading above key moving averages and positive MACD. Valuation is broadly reasonable but not compelling enough to fully counter the fundamental softness.

Positive Factors

Improved LeverageThe substantial reduction in leverage and increase in equity provide Mitsubishi Paper Mills with a more stable capital structure than in earlier years. This improves financial resilience and preserves greater flexibility to manage cyclical demand, fund operations, and pursue growth while profitability recovers.

Negative Factors

Sharp Profitability DeclineThe latest results show a material deterioration in earnings power, with revenue contraction and operating profit approaching breakeven. Such thin profitability leaves limited room to absorb weaker volumes or cost pressure and makes sustained earnings recovery an important requirement for the business.

Mitsubishi Paper Mills (3864) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Market Cap: JPY 52.41B
Dividend Yield: 1.86%
Average Volume (3M): 143.10K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.6
Beta (1Y): 0.73
Revenue Growth: -8.09%
EPS Growth: 76.25%
Country: Japan
Employees: 2,513
Sector: Basic Materials
Sector Strength: 61
Industry: Paper, Lumber & Forest Products

Mitsubishi Paper Mills Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mitsubishi Paper Mills Limited (MPML), headquartered in Tokyo, Japan, was founded in 1898 and initially known as Mitsubishi Paper Mills Company before adopting its current name in November 1917. Through its various subsidiaries, MPML engages globally...

How the Company Makes Money

The company primarily makes money by manufacturing and selling paper and specialty material products to corporate customers through its domestic and overseas sales channels. Key revenue streams generally include (1) sales of paper products (e.g., pri...

Mitsubishi Paper Mills Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall financials are pressured by a sharp profitability step-down in 2026 (revenue down ~7.6%, EBIT margin ~0.2%, net margin ~1.2%) and uneven cash-flow reliability despite positive 2026 OCF/FCF. The balance sheet trend is a relative positive with improved leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.63), but returns remain modest (ROE ~1.8%).

Income Statement

44Neutral

Balance Sheet

56Neutral

Cash Flow

42Neutral

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2026	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	156.61B	157.46B	175.94B	193.46B	209.54B	181.92B
Gross Profit	21.36B	20.24B	25.16B	28.15B	27.25B	25.77B
EBITDA	7.31B	5.79B	10.95B	13.14B	9.26B	8.24B
Net Income	5.38B	1.90B	4.34B	4.17B	-570.00M	1.10B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	224.56B	222.78B	208.22B	235.38B	227.06B	215.88B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.51B	4.89B	6.24B	10.01B	8.32B	9.05B
Total Debt	68.81B	64.92B	72.33B	85.06B	100.17B	93.36B
Total Liabilities	121.00B	119.58B	122.93B	144.42B	155.01B	146.26B
Stockholders Equity	103.53B	103.15B	85.26B	90.93B	72.03B	69.61B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0	1.53B	2.23B	11.80B	-7.27B	-4.56B
Operating Cash Flow	0	5.22B	4.85B	13.49B	-2.72B	1.70B
Investing Cash Flow	0	1.60B	4.80B	3.83B	-3.56B	-2.56B
Financing Cash Flow	0	-8.30B	-13.40B	-16.26B	5.21B	-6.09B

Mitsubishi Paper Mills Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNeutral

Last Price1183.00

Price Trends

50DMA1206.55Negative

100DMA1149.53Positive

200DMA1007.14Positive

Market Momentum

MACD-11.48Positive

RSI45.50Neutral

STOCH47.34Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3864, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1183.00 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1210.20, below the 50-day MA of 1206.55, and above the 200-day MA of 1007.14, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -11.48 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.34 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JP:3864.

Mitsubishi Paper Mills Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

JP:3864 against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JP:3708	68Neutral	JPY 80.47B	16.39	―	3.56%	-0.03%	30.67%
JP:3861	62Neutral	JPY 705.03B	11.57	5.99%	4.39%	3.44%	87.22%
JP:3865	62Neutral	JPY 130.23B	19.72	2.61%	3.22%	-5.23%	-55.21%
Sector *	61Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
JP:3880	58Neutral	JPY 166.37B	20.26	3.48%	1.42%	1.33%	―
JP:3863	54Neutral	JPY 141.07B	8.55	3.20%	1.23%	4.09%	-7.89%
JP:3864	54Neutral	JPY 52.41B	9.59	5.78%	1.86%	-8.09%	76.25%

* Basic Materials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

JP:3864 and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
JP:3864	Mitsubishi Paper Mills	1183.00	589.51	99.33%
JP:3863	Nippon Paper Industries Co	1216.00	118.86	10.83%
JP:3861	Oji Holdings Corp	820.20	59.44	7.81%
JP:3865	Hokuetsu Corporation	808.00	-10.81	-1.32%
JP:3880	Daio Paper Corporation	983.00	99.25	11.23%
JP:3708	Tokushu Tokai Paper Co., Ltd.	2217.00	776.16	53.87%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 22, 2026

Mitsubishi Paper Mills AI Stock Analysis