Nippon Paper AI Stock Analysis
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Nippon Paper (3863) AI Stock Analysis
Nippon Paper
(TSE/TYO:3863)
The score is primarily constrained by elevated leverage and uneven profitability/free-cash-flow consistency despite a clear post-2023 recovery and steady positive operating cash flow. Technicals are mildly supportive with the stock holding above key moving averages, while valuation appears fair rather than compelling given a mid-teens P/E and a modest dividend yield.
Nippon Paper (3863) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
- Market Cap
- JPY 818.69M
- Dividend Yield
- 1.23%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 622.87K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 8.6
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.55
- Revenue Growth
- 4.09%
- EPS Growth
- -7.89%
- Country
- Japan
- Employees
- 15,042
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Sector Strength
- 61
- Industry
- Paper, Lumber & Forest Products
Nippon Paper Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Established in 1949 and headquartered in Tokyo, Japan, Nippon Paper Industries Co., Ltd. operates as a global enterprise with a primary focus on paper manufacturing and a wide array of related businesses. The company's extensive product portfolio enc...
How the Company Makes Money
Nippon Paper makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling pulp- and wood-fiber-based products to industrial and consumer markets. Its core revenue streams include: (1) Paper and paperboard sales to business customers such as publishers, printer...
Nippon Paper Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Revenue momentum and an earnings recovery after the 2023 loss support the score, and operating cash flow has remained positive. Offsetting this, leverage is elevated (high debt-to-equity), and profitability/free-cash-flow have been uneven, keeping financial risk and cyclicality above average.
Income Statement
56NeutralBalance Sheet
44NeutralCash Flow
58Neutral| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.19T | 1.18T | 1.19T | 1.17T | 1.15T | 1.05T |
| Gross Profit | 197.74B | 186.73B | 199.01B | 177.27B | 140.42B | 169.22B |
| EBITDA | 88.69B | 87.50B | 88.42B | 82.53B | 40.47B | 79.66B |
| Net Income | 12.23B | 4.54B | 11.74B | 22.75B | -50.41B | 1.99B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.74T | 1.70T | 1.74T | 1.73T | 1.67T | 1.64T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 176.35B | 185.94B | 207.41B | 164.86B | 144.35B | 136.84B |
| Total Debt | 863.07B | 881.02B | 876.86B | 889.12B | 925.31B | 898.12B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.22T | 1.19T | 1.20T | 1.24T | 1.25T | 1.20T |
| Stockholders Equity | 485.21B | 482.03B | 508.47B | 468.79B | 394.65B | 426.93B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0 | 21.72B | 20.70B | 28.62B | -23.53B | 12.70B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0 | 72.79B | 74.99B | 90.28B | 65.82B | 72.38B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0 | -33.44B | -43.58B | -22.03B | -66.17B | -61.25B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0 | -18.27B | -7.86B | -46.57B | 5.12B | 54.31B |
Nippon Paper Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3863, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1216.00 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1260.65, below the 50-day MA of 1293.26, and below the 200-day MA of 1298.03, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -18.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:3863.
Nippon Paper Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
JP:803269Neutral
JP:386162Neutral
JP:386562Neutral
JP:388058Neutral
JP:386454Neutral- JP:386354Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP:8032 | 69Neutral | JPY 129.03B | 17.51 | ― | 3.43% | 12.36% | 175.55% |
| JP:3861 | 62Neutral | JPY 705.03B | 11.57 | 5.99% | 4.39% | 3.44% | 87.22% |
| JP:3865 | 62Neutral | JPY 130.23B | 19.72 | 2.61% | 3.22% | -5.23% | -55.21% |
| Sector * | 61Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
| JP:3880 | 58Neutral | JPY 166.37B | 20.26 | 3.48% | 1.42% | 1.33% | ― |
| JP:3864 | 54Neutral | JPY 52.41B | 9.59 | 5.78% | 1.86% | -8.09% | 76.25% |
| JP:3863 | 54Neutral | JPY 141.07B | 8.55 | 3.20% | 1.23% | 4.09% | -7.89% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP:3863 | Nippon Paper Industries Co | 1216.00 | 118.86 | 10.83% | |
| JP:3864 | Mitsubishi Paper Mills | 1183.00 | 589.51 | 99.33% | |
| JP:3861 | Oji Holdings Corp | 820.20 | 59.44 | 7.81% | |
| JP:3865 | Hokuetsu Corporation | 808.00 | -10.81 | -1.32% | |
| JP:3880 | Daio Paper Corporation | 983.00 | 99.25 | 11.23% | |
| JP:8032 | Japan Pulp and Paper Co. Ltd. | 1109.00 | 408.82 | 58.39% |
Nippon Paper Corporate Events
Nippon Paper to End Graphic Paper and Pulp Production at Yatsushiro
Nippon Paper Industries decided to terminate graphic paper and pulp production at its Yatsushiro Mill in Kumamoto after the 2026 Kumamoto Earthquake caused severe, widespread damage to production equipment, buildings and other facilities. The company...
Nippon Paper Reports Profit as Structural Reforms Accelerate
Nippon Paper Industries reported first-half operating profit of ¥0.7 billion and net income of ¥5.3 billion, despite responding to the Kumamoto Earthquake and the NDP tank-collapse incident. The company said it is prioritizing structural reform, incl...
Nippon Paper Records ¥17.3 Billion in Disaster Losses
Nippon Paper Industries recorded ¥15.1 billion in extraordinary earthquake losses for the six months ended September 30, 2026, including fixed-asset impairments, inventory write-downs and costs tied to suspended operations after the Kumamoto earthqua...
Nippon Paper Sales Rise as Core Profits Plunge
Nippon Paper Industries reported six-month net sales of ¥632.3 billion, up 7.3% year on year, but operating profit fell 92.1% to ¥715 million and ordinary profit dropped 92.6% to ¥636 million. Profit attributable to owners rose to ¥5.3 billion from ¥...
Nippon Paper Books Large Extraordinary Gains from LINTEC Share Sales
Nippon Paper has completed an additional sale of 415,100 common shares of LINTEC Corporation for about JPY 2.1 billion, as part of a broader secondary offering. This latest transaction will generate extraordinary income of roughly JPY 1.9 billion on...
Nippon Paper to Halt Hungarian EV Battery Material Operations, Book ¥5 Billion Loss
Nippon Paper Industries has decided to temporarily suspend operations at its Hungarian subsidiary Nippon Paper Chemicals Europe Zrt., which produces CMC for lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles, after the unit failed to achieve stable earn...
Nippon Paper to Book Large Extraordinary Gain from LINTEC Share Sale
Nippon Paper Industries has set the sale price for a secondary offering of 12,436,600 common shares of LINTEC Corporation, raising total proceeds of ¥63.6 billion at ¥5,115 per share. This transaction follows an earlier sale to LINTEC’s share buyback...
Nippon Paper Books ¥29.4 Billion From LINTEC Share Sale, Trims Secondary Offering
Nippon Paper has sold 5,357,800 common shares of LINTEC Corporation via the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s off-auction own share repurchase system, generating proceeds of ¥29.4 billion at ¥5,490 per share. The transaction responds to LINTEC’s share buyback a...
Nippon Paper to Divest Entire LINTEC Stake in Capital Efficiency Push
Nippon Paper Industries has resolved to sell all of its roughly 20 million common shares in LINTEC Corporation via a secondary offering as part of a broader balance sheet optimization drive under its Medium-term Business Plan 2030. The disposal follo...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Aug 30, 2026