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Nippon Paper (3863) AI Stock Analysis
Nippon Paper
(TSE/TYO:3863)
The overall score of 58 reflects a stable but unspectacular profile. The company's strongest attribute is its consistent cash flow generation, which supports financial health and deleveraging. However, thin profitability and a neutral technical and valuation picture limit upside potential. The stock is fundamentally sound but lacks a clear catalyst for significant outperformance.
Nippon Paper (3863) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
- Market Cap
- JPY 818.69M
- Dividend Yield
- 1.17%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 659.49K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 15.4
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.51
- Revenue Growth
- 2.22%
- EPS Growth
- 27.47%
- Country
- Japan
- Employees
- 15,042
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Sector Strength
- 61
- Industry
- Paper, Lumber & Forest Products
Nippon Paper Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Established in 1949 and headquartered in Tokyo, Japan, Nippon Paper Industries Co., Ltd. operates as a global enterprise with a primary focus on paper manufacturing and a wide array of related businesses. The company's extensive product portfolio enc...
How the Company Makes Money
Nippon Paper primarily makes money by manufacturing and selling pulp- and paper-based products to corporate customers and distributors. Key revenue streams include (1) Paper and paperboard sales: revenue generated from supplying printing/communicatio...
Nippon Paper Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financial performance is mixed. Robust operating cash flow (Cash Flow Score 72) and improving leverage (Balance Sheet Score 58) are offset by thin, volatile profitability (Income Statement Score 48). Strong cash generation provides stability, but low margins and return on equity weigh on the overall score.
Income Statement
48NeutralBalance Sheet
58NeutralCash Flow
72Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.19T | 1.18T | 1.19T | 1.17T | 1.15T | 1.05T |
| Gross Profit | 200.48B | 186.73B | 199.01B | 177.27B | 140.42B | 169.22B |
| EBITDA | 92.34B | 87.50B | 88.42B | 82.53B | 40.47B | 79.66B |
| Net Income | 17.65B | 4.54B | 11.74B | 22.75B | -50.41B | 1.99B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.68T | 1.70T | 1.74T | 1.73T | 1.67T | 1.64T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 162.48B | 185.94B | 207.41B | 164.86B | 144.35B | 136.84B |
| Total Debt | 852.16B | 881.02B | 876.86B | 889.12B | 925.31B | 898.12B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.18T | 1.19T | 1.20T | 1.24T | 1.25T | 1.20T |
| Stockholders Equity | 469.19B | 482.03B | 508.47B | 468.79B | 394.65B | 426.93B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0 | 21.72B | 20.70B | 28.62B | -23.53B | 12.70B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0 | 72.79B | 74.99B | 90.28B | 65.82B | 72.38B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0 | -33.44B | -43.58B | -22.03B | -66.17B | -61.25B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0 | -18.27B | -7.86B | -46.57B | 5.12B | 54.31B |
Nippon Paper Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3863, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1270.00 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1274.85, below the 50-day MA of 1310.46, and below the 200-day MA of 1295.65, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -11.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:3863.
Nippon Paper Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
JP:803269Neutral
JP:386162Neutral
JP:386562Neutral- JP:386358Neutral
JP:386454Neutral
JP:388052Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP:8032 | 69Neutral | JPY 159.47B | 29.88 | ― | 2.74% | 9.61% | -3.44% |
| JP:3861 | 62Neutral | JPY 694.50B | 11.54 | 5.99% | 4.40% | 0.22% | 208.36% |
| JP:3865 | 62Neutral | JPY 132.28B | 20.45 | 2.61% | 3.11% | -5.23% | -55.21% |
| Sector * | 61Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
| JP:3863 | 58Neutral | JPY 148.11B | 15.42 | 1.94% | 1.17% | 2.22% | 27.47% |
| JP:3864 | 54Neutral | JPY 54.59B | 10.01 | 5.78% | 1.79% | -8.09% | 76.25% |
| JP:3880 | 52Neutral | JPY 162.88B | 20.26 | 3.48% | 1.43% | 1.33% | ― |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP:3863 | Nippon Paper Industries Co | 1282.00 | 146.31 | 12.88% | |
| JP:3864 | Mitsubishi Paper Mills | 1228.00 | 639.39 | 108.63% | |
| JP:3861 | Oji Holdings Corp | 817.80 | 73.81 | 9.92% | |
| JP:3865 | Hokuetsu Corporation | 836.00 | 15.25 | 1.86% | |
| JP:3880 | Daio Paper Corporation | 981.00 | 163.33 | 19.98% | |
| JP:8032 | Japan Pulp and Paper Co. Ltd. | 1388.00 | 684.91 | 97.42% |
Nippon Paper Corporate Events
Nippon Paper Books Large Extraordinary Gains from LINTEC Share Sales
Nippon Paper has completed an additional sale of 415,100 common shares of LINTEC Corporation for about JPY 2.1 billion, as part of a broader secondary offering. This latest transaction will generate extraordinary income of roughly JPY 1.9 billion on...
Nippon Paper to Halt Hungarian EV Battery Material Operations, Book ¥5 Billion Loss
Nippon Paper Industries has decided to temporarily suspend operations at its Hungarian subsidiary Nippon Paper Chemicals Europe Zrt., which produces CMC for lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles, after the unit failed to achieve stable earn...
Nippon Paper to Book Large Extraordinary Gain from LINTEC Share Sale
Nippon Paper Industries has set the sale price for a secondary offering of 12,436,600 common shares of LINTEC Corporation, raising total proceeds of ¥63.6 billion at ¥5,115 per share. This transaction follows an earlier sale to LINTEC’...
Nippon Paper Books ¥29.4 Billion From LINTEC Share Sale, Trims Secondary Offering
Nippon Paper has sold 5,357,800 common shares of LINTEC Corporation via the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s off-auction own share repurchase system, generating proceeds of ¥29.4 billion at ¥5,490 per share. The transaction responds to LINTEC&#...
Nippon Paper to Divest Entire LINTEC Stake in Capital Efficiency Push
Nippon Paper Industries has resolved to sell all of its roughly 20 million common shares in LINTEC Corporation via a secondary offering as part of a broader balance sheet optimization drive under its Medium-term Business Plan 2030. The disposal follo...
Nippon Paper Divests Loss-Making Opal Bag Business to Magan Group Affiliate
Nippon Paper Industries has moved to streamline its overseas operations by deciding to transfer the bag manufacturing business of its Australian subsidiary Opal to A.C.N. 700 735 575 Pty Ltd, a special-purpose vehicle affiliated with U.S. divestiture...
Nippon Paper Q1 Profit Drops, Full-Year Outlook Withdrawn After Plant Incidents
Nippon Paper reported that first-quarter results for the fiscal year ending March 2027 were broadly in line with its plan, with net sales rising 7.5 percent year on year to ¥314.5 billion, aided by newly consolidated subsidiaries and the weaker...
Nippon Paper pulls 2027 earnings forecast after U.S. accident and Kumamoto quake damage
Nippon Paper Industries has withdrawn its previously issued consolidated earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2027 after a tank collapse accident at its U.S. subsidiary Nippon Dynawave Packaging and quake damage at its Yatsushiro Mill i...
Nippon Paper Posts Quarterly Loss Despite Higher Sales and Holds Dividend Outlook
Nippon Paper reported a 7.5% year-on-year rise in net sales to ¥314.5 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2026, but operating profit fell 47% and the company swung to a net loss attributable to owners of the parent, resulting in a negati...
Nippon Paper Halts Yatsushiro Plant After Fatal Kumamoto Quake, Activates Crisis Response
Nippon Paper Industries, a leading Japanese paper and pulp producer, operates a nationwide network of plants that supply industrial, packaging, printing, and household paper products to domestic and overseas markets. The company’s scale and div...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Aug 30, 2026