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Hobonichi Co., Ltd. (3560) AI Stock Analysis

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JP:3560

Hobonichi Co., Ltd.

(TSE/TYO:3560)

Select Model
Rating:79Outperform
Price Target:JPY 5,840.00▲(14.51% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:10/15/26

Overall score is driven primarily by strong financial performance—especially accelerating growth, improved margins, and a very low-risk balance sheet—partly offset by historically volatile free cash flow. Technicals add support due to a clear uptrend and positive momentum indicators. Valuation is reasonable with a modest dividend yield, but not a major catalyst on its own.

Positive Factors
Revenue and Profitability GrowthConsistent revenue growth, accelerating to 8.96% in 2026, indicates continued demand for Hobonichi’s products and content ecosystem. The accompanying expansion in gross, operating, and net margins suggests that recent growth is translating into stronger earnings power and can support reinvestment.
Negative Factors
Volatile Free Cash FlowRepeated periods of negative free cash flow make the company’s cash conversion less predictable than its income performance. This variability can reflect working-capital swings or uneven investment timing, reducing confidence that reported earnings will consistently translate into funds available for reinvestment.

Hobonichi Co., Ltd. (3560) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%JP:3560+61.66%EWJ+15.75%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
JPY 11.95B
Dividend Yield
1.96%
Average Volume (3M)
3,616
Price to Earnings (P/E)
14.7
Beta (1Y)
0.25
Revenue Growth
23.56%
EPS Growth
81.61%
Country
Japan
Employees
156
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Sector Strength
61
Industry
Specialty Retail

Hobonichi Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Hobonichi Co., Ltd. operates and creates content for the Hobonichi Itoi Shimbun website, alongside managing its Hobonichi web store in Japan. The company specializes in the conceptualization, development, and sale of products such as the Hobonichi Te...

Hobonichi Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong fundamental profile: consistent revenue growth with an acceleration to ~9% in 2026, and meaningful profitability improvement (gross margin ~61.7%, operating margin ~10.4%, net margin ~7.6%). Balance sheet strength is a major positive with essentially zero leverage and improving ROE (~14.6% in 2026). The main offset is cash-flow inconsistency, with multiple years of negative free cash flow despite a strong rebound in 2026.

Income Statement

84Very Positive

Balance Sheet

92Very Positive

Cash Flow

63Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMAug 2026Aug 2025Aug 2024Aug 2023Aug 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue10.72B10.72B8.68B7.53B6.82B5.91B
Gross Profit6.61B6.61B4.95B4.27B3.88B3.28B
EBITDA1.52B1.51B912.56M747.05M760.68M428.35M
Net Income814.50M814.50M448.35M399.20M411.91M205.71M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets8.13B8.13B6.99B6.55B5.90B5.35B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.31B1.31B755.18M1.19B1.37B1.62B
Total Debt008.96M2.87M5.22M7.89M
Total Liabilities2.57B2.57B2.10B2.03B1.70B1.49B
Stockholders Equity5.56B5.56B4.89B4.52B4.20B3.86B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow01.15B-218.86M372.36M-37.70M50.19M
Operating Cash Flow01.31B158.47M401.59M162.66M201.61M
Investing Cash Flow0-539.60M-485.58M-467.33M-292.33M-255.08M
Financing Cash Flow0-211.35M-105.05M-106.45M-106.93M-106.84M

Hobonichi Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive
Last Price5100.00

Price Trends

50DMA4877.90Positive
100DMA4559.87Positive
200DMA4149.87Positive

Market Momentum

MACD34.34Positive
RSI52.24Neutral
STOCH45.68Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3560, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5100.00 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5108.25, above the 50-day MA of 4877.90, and above the 200-day MA of 4149.87, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 34.34 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:3560.

Hobonichi Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

JP:3560 against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
JP:3560JP:356079OutperformJPY 11.96B14.68―1.96%23.56%81.61%
JP:3396JP:339671OutperformJPY 5.54B15.92―2.39%-1.29%-0.27%
JP:3159JP:315967NeutralJPY 32.67B10.01―1.70%5.55%-29.88%
JP:2769JP:276964NeutralJPY 7.09B12.60――-5.16%―
Sector *61Neutral$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
JP:3138JP:313852NeutralJPY 3.61B82.37―2.63%3.16%-28.86%
JP:3134JP:313445NeutralJPY 3.64B6.23―9.96%-9.38%-52.30%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-50%0%50%JP:3560JP:2769JP:3134JP:3138JP:3159JP:3396Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
JP:3560 and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
JP:3560Hobonichi Co., Ltd.5100.001940.3061.41%
JP:2769Village Vanguard Co., Ltd.908.00-123.00-11.93%
JP:3134Hamee Corp.226.00-303.35-57.31%
JP:3138Fujisan Magazine Service Co., Ltd.1160.00102.129.65%
JP:3159Maruzen CHI Holdings Co., Ltd.357.0028.898.81%
JP:3396Felissimo Corporation835.00-10.45-1.24%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 15, 2026