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Kasumigaseki Capital Co., Ltd. (3498) AI Stock Analysis

JP:3498

Kasumigaseki Capital Co., Ltd.

(TSE/TYO:3498)

Select Model
Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:JPY 7,197.00â–¼(-1.81% Downside)
Action:reiterated
Date:10/08/26

The score is primarily driven by strong income-statement performance (high growth and solid margins) but meaningfully offset by weak and volatile cash conversion with multiple years of negative operating/free cash flow and reliance on leverage. Valuation is a key positive (low P/E and ~2.12% yield), while technical indicators are modestly weak due to negative MACD and sub-50 RSI.

Positive Factors
Rapid revenue and profit growthThe substantial expansion in revenue, combined with healthy EBIT, EBITDA, and net margins, indicates strong execution and growing business scale. Continued development activity can support further earnings growth while the company retains meaningful profitability as its platform expands.
Negative Factors
Volatile cash conversionRepeated negative operating and free cash flow shows that reported earnings are not consistently converting into cash. This can increase dependence on external funding during expansion, reduce financial flexibility, and make liquidity more sensitive to project timing and working-capital movements.

Kasumigaseki Capital Co., Ltd. (3498) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%JP:3498-9.96%EWJ+15.87%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
JPY 180.09B
Dividend Yield
2.25%
Average Volume (3M)
389.74K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
10.2
Beta (1Y)
1.01
Revenue Growth
69.69%
EPS Growth
38.02%
Country
Japan
Employees
727
Sector
Industrials
Sector Strength
63
Industry
Conglomerates

Kasumigaseki Capital Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Kasumigaseki Capital Co.,Ltd., established in 2011 and headquartered in Tokyo, Japan, primarily offers real estate consulting services throughout the country. Beyond its core real estate activities, the company actively develops and manages power gen...

How the Company Makes Money

Kasumigaseki Capital makes money primarily through real estate investment and development activities. Key revenue streams generally include: (1) Development and sale of real estate: generating revenue and profit when the company develops investment p...

Kasumigaseki Capital Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and rapid revenue scaling support the score (revenue growth to 163.8B by 2026; ~33.1% gross margin; ~17.0% EBIT margin; ~10.2% net margin). However, repeated negative operating and free cash flow years (including 2026 OCF -16.8B; FCF -28.9B) and meaningful leverage (debt 108.0B; debt-to-equity ~1.24x) materially raise funding and liquidity risk, pulling the score down.

Income Statement

82Very Positive

Balance Sheet

64Positive

Cash Flow

38Negative
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMAug 2026Aug 2025Aug 2024Aug 2023Aug 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue123.87B163.76B96.50B65.69B37.28B20.78B
Gross Profit43.62B54.18B36.44B18.56B10.10B6.18B
EBITDA24.23B29.98B19.97B9.30B4.64B2.15B
Net Income12.75B16.69B10.25B5.02B2.05B1.02B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets163.41B222.13B121.69B77.55B43.78B30.44B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments42.85B41.79B24.02B11.06B5.90B5.39B
Total Debt69.46B107.96B68.87B41.89B28.28B18.41B
Total Liabilities87.88B134.29B83.49B49.81B32.10B21.08B
Stockholders Equity75.08B87.23B36.61B27.03B11.18B9.28B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0-28.95B396.00M-10.35B-8.38B-11.89B
Operating Cash Flow0-16.77B6.89B-8.45B-7.91B-11.69B
Investing Cash Flow0-31.48B-18.56B-4.81B-1.17B-436.58M
Financing Cash Flow065.34B24.70B18.41B9.51B13.90B

Kasumigaseki Capital Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive
Last Price7330.00

Price Trends

50DMA7389.32Negative
100DMA7069.59Positive
200DMA6870.25Positive

Market Momentum

MACD-56.88Negative
RSI51.53Neutral
STOCH80.66Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3498, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7330.00 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7249.00, below the 50-day MA of 7389.32, and above the 200-day MA of 6870.25, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -56.88 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.66 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:3498.

Kasumigaseki Capital Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

JP:3498 against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
JP:9048JP:904868NeutralJPY 367.63B12.73―2.14%-1.89%-15.16%
Sector *63Neutral$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
JP:3498JP:349862NeutralJPY 180.36B10.22―2.25%69.69%38.02%
JP:9008JP:900862NeutralJPY 445.34B10.539.60%2.86%9.62%9.03%
JP:9041JP:904162NeutralJPY 663.75B12.129.20%1.86%1.93%22.25%
JP:9003JP:900361NeutralJPY 251.66B9.62―2.92%8.74%35.24%
JP:9024JP:902446NeutralJPY 941.21B22.08―1.18%-41.04%-82.38%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-40%-20%0%20%JP:3498JP:9041JP:9008JP:9003JP:9024JP:9048Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
JP:3498 and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
JP:3498Kasumigaseki Capital Co., Ltd.7330.00-908.47-11.03%
JP:9041Kintetsu Group Holdings Co 3490.00623.9721.77%
JP:9008Keio Corporation768.4057.308.06%
JP:9003Sotetsu Holdings, Inc.2568.5053.312.12%
JP:9024Seibu Holdings, Inc.3653.00-1709.45-31.88%
JP:9048Nagoya Railroad Co., Ltd.1869.50223.1013.55%

Kasumigaseki Capital Co., Ltd. Corporate Events

Kasumigaseki Capital Outlines FY2026 Results and Strategic Focus

Oct 6, 2026

Kasumigaseki Capital Co., Ltd. released its full-year financial results for the fiscal year ending August 2026, outlining performance metrics, forecasts, and strategic directions. The disclosure highlights the company’s financial trajectory, bu...

Kasumigaseki Capital Delivers Strong Earnings and Targets Further Growth for 2027

Oct 5, 2026

Kasumigaseki Capital Co., Ltd. is a Tokyo Stock Exchange-listed real estate investment and capital markets firm focused on structured property projects and financial solutions in Japan. Its expanding asset base and strengthened equity position underp...

Kasumigaseki Capital Raises Earnings Outlook on Strong Hotel Development Gains

Sep 17, 2026

Kasumigaseki Capital Co., Ltd., a Japan-based real estate and asset management firm listed on the TSE Prime Market, specializes in development and investment projects, including a growing focus on hotel properties. The company’s business model...

Kasumigaseki Capital Sells Miami Site as It Expands Hotel Pipeline

Aug 28, 2026

Kasumigaseki Capital has completed the sale of its first U.S. project, a mixed-use hotel and residential development site in Miami’s Worldcenter district, held through its subsidiary KASUMIGASEKI FLORIDA LLC. The buyer, BCE MIAMI PROPERTY LLC,...

Kasumigaseki Capital Rebrands Hotel Subsidiary as FHG Hotels

Aug 27, 2026

Kasumigaseki Capital has announced that its wholly owned subsidiary fav hospitality group Co., Ltd. will change its name to FHG hotels Co., Ltd., effective September 1, 2026, pending approval at an extraordinary shareholders meeting. The subsidiary i...

Kasumigaseki Capital Launches First U.S. Project with Miami Site Sale

Aug 26, 2026

Kasumigaseki Capital has approved the sale of a development site in central Miami held through its U.S. subsidiary, marking its first project in the American market. The mixed-use site in Miami Worldcenter, intended mainly for hotels and residences,...

Kasumigaseki Capital Reports No Operational Impact from 2026 Kumamoto Earthquake

Jul 29, 2026

Kasumigaseki Capital has reported that the 2026 Kumamoto Earthquake, which struck the Kumamoto region on July 28, has not caused damage to facilities owned by the KC Group or properties under its asset management. The company also confirmed that ther...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 08, 2026