TOKYO BASE Co., Ltd. (3415) AI Stock Analysis

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TOKYO BASE Co., Ltd.

(TSE/TYO:3415)

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Rating:62Neutral

Price Target:JPY 373.00▲(5.67% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:09/17/26

The company's strong revenue growth and improved profitability are the primary strengths, but the score is significantly weighed down by weak technical momentum and a sharp decline in free cash flow. The stock's bearish technical posture and cash flow concerns present notable risks despite a reasonable valuation.

Positive Factors

Revenue and Profitability RecoveryThe return to strong revenue growth alongside positive earnings indicates improved trading performance and renewed operating leverage. If maintained, this recovery can support reinvestment, strengthen the company’s retail platform, and provide a more durable earnings base over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Weak Free Cash Flow ConversionThe sharp decline in free cash flow despite higher earnings signals that profits are not translating efficiently into cash. Persistent reinvestment or working-capital demands could constrain internally funded growth, reduce capital-allocation flexibility, and make earnings quality less dependable.

TOKYO BASE Co., Ltd. (3415) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Market Cap: JPY 15.04B
Dividend Yield: 1.70%
Average Volume (3M): 366.31K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.1
Beta (1Y): 0.46
Revenue Growth: 21.11%
EPS Growth: 27.80%
Country: Japan
Employees: 465
Sector: General
Sector Strength: 55
Industry: Apparel - Retail

TOKYO BASE Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TOKYO BASE Co.,Ltd., a Tokyo-based Japanese fashion retailer established in 2008, caters to both men and women. Its product portfolio is extensive, featuring a wide selection of apparel, footwear, handbags, swimwear, and various accessories such as j...

How the Company Makes Money

TOKYO BASE primarily makes money by retailing apparel and fashion-related goods through its own stores and online sales channels. Revenue is generated from (1) direct-to-consumer sales at brick-and-mortar locations, where the company earns gross prof...

TOKYO BASE Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue growth and margin expansion are offset by declining free cash flow and rising leverage. The income statement is robust, but cash flow sustainability is a concern.

Income Statement

80Positive

Balance Sheet

75Positive

Cash Flow

60Neutral

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Jan 2026	Jan 2025	Jan 2024	Jan 2023	Jan 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	25.91B	23.73B	20.21B	19.99B	19.18B	19.22B
Gross Profit	13.43B	12.30B	10.44B	9.06B	9.61B	9.27B
EBITDA	2.71B	2.38B	1.76B	1.87B	1.01B	2.05B
Net Income	1.26B	1.21B	776.87M	335.43M	-539.52M	832.08M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	15.29B	14.86B	11.46B	11.89B	11.20B	11.55B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.52B	4.40B	3.67B	4.16B	2.50B	3.15B
Total Debt	5.82B	5.74B	3.95B	4.44B	3.65B	3.22B
Total Liabilities	9.24B	8.60B	6.35B	6.36B	5.83B	5.64B
Stockholders Equity	6.06B	6.27B	5.11B	5.53B	5.37B	5.90B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0	203.93M	1.33B	723.09M	-713.52M	-123.67M
Operating Cash Flow	0	1.31B	1.74B	828.53M	64.41M	883.90M
Investing Cash Flow	0	-1.68B	-758.21M	-115.24M	-730.89M	-1.59B
Financing Cash Flow	0	1.09B	-1.50B	934.53M	-3.83M	1.22B

TOKYO BASE Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive

Last Price353.00

Price Trends

50DMA346.28Positive

100DMA363.76Negative

200DMA380.16Negative

Market Momentum

MACD1.05Negative

RSI57.64Neutral

STOCH62.79Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3415, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 353.00 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 338.30, above the 50-day MA of 346.28, and below the 200-day MA of 380.16, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:3415.

TOKYO BASE Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (55)

Financial Indicators

JP:3415 against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JP:2726	81Outperform	JPY 281.43B	14.88	―	2.60%	7.11%	57.75%
JP:8227	71Outperform	JPY 782.58B	16.44	9.11%	2.12%	5.20%	11.08%
JP:2792	67Neutral	JPY 39.41B	16.23	―	3.89%	-3.56%	-29.47%
JP:3415	62Neutral	JPY 14.59B	12.14	―	1.70%	21.11%	27.80%
Sector *	55Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%
JP:3189	41Neutral	JPY 6.41B	-0.27	―	―	19.95%	-408.72%
JP:3548	38Underperform	JPY 17.39B	-15.28	―	7.87%	-9.23%	47.73%

* General Sector Average

Performance Comparison

JP:3415 and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
JP:3415	TOKYO BASE Co., Ltd.	353.00	-43.32	-10.93%
JP:8227	SHIMAMURA Co	3536.00	67.41	1.94%
JP:2726	PAL GROUP Holdings Co., Ltd.	1540.00	-453.38	-22.74%
JP:2792	HONEYS HOLDINGS CO. LTD.	1414.00	-38.08	-2.62%
JP:3189	ANAP Inc.	50.00	-388.00	-88.58%
JP:3548	BAROQUE JAPAN LIMITED	483.00	-232.94	-32.54%

TOKYO BASE Co., Ltd. Corporate Events

TOKYO BASE Posts Solid September Sales and Ramps Up Autumn-Winter Inventory

Oct 2, 2026

TOKYO BASE reported total sales for September 2026 at 114.0% year-on-year, with physical stores up 114.5% and e-commerce up 110.8%, while existing stores slipped to 98.5% as domestic foot traffic was dampened by prolonged rainy weather, particularly...

TOKYO BASE Releases 1H FY2027/1 Briefing on Performance and ESG Strategy

Sep 15, 2026

TOKYO BASE Co., Ltd., a Japanese fashion retailer, manages a suite of apparel brands including STUDIOOUS, UNITED TOKYO, PUBLIC TOKYO, and several related concepts. The company targets style-driven consumers through curated domestic fashion offerings,...

TOKYO BASE Posts Double-Digit Sales Growth and Hikes Full-Year Dividend Forecast

Sep 14, 2026

TOKYO BASE reported consolidated net sales of ¥12.47 billion for the six months to July 31, 2026, up 21.1% year on year, with operating profit rising 7.8% to ¥857 million and ordinary profit jumping 34.8% to ¥920 million. Profit attributable to owner...

TOKYO BASE Posts Double-Digit August Sales Growth on New Formats and Overseas Strength

Sep 2, 2026

TOKYO BASE reported solid trading for August 2026, with total net sales rising 17.2% year-on-year, driven by 16.8% growth in physical stores and 19.8% in e-commerce, while same-store sales increased 3.9%. New formats such as CONZ, RITAN, JAPAN EDITIO...

TOKYO BASE posts strong July sales on new formats and e-commerce growth

Aug 4, 2026

TOKYO BASE reported robust performance for July 2026, with overall sales rising 14.4% year-on-year and same-store sales up 2.7%, driven by strong growth in new-format brands CONZ and RITAN and a 40.9% surge in e-commerce revenue. The opening of JAPAN...

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Sep 17, 2026

TOKYO BASE Co., Ltd. AI Stock Analysis