Julius Baer Group (JBAXY) AI Stock Analysis

Julius Baer Group

(Other OTC:JBAXY)

Select Model

Rating:55Neutral

Price Target:$17.50▲(4.37% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:10/21/26

The overall score of 55 reflects a company with strong strategic execution and an attractive valuation, but facing significant near-term headwinds. The primary positive driver is the solid operational performance and capital strength highlighted in the earnings call. This is counterbalanced by major financial risks, specifically the poor cash flow conversion and declining net income, which are reinforced by bearish technical trends. The high dividend yield provides some support, but the stock's momentum is weak.

Positive Factors

Recurring revenue and client scaleRecord AUM and growth in recurring fee income support a durable wealth-management base tied to client relationships and portfolios. This recurring stream can provide earnings resilience and funding for continued investment, while expanding assets increase future fee-generation capacity.

Negative Factors

Weak cash conversionThe large gap between reported profit and operating cash flow weakens confidence in earnings quality and cash conversion. Negative free cash flow also reduces internally generated financial flexibility, making sustained investment, distributions, or balance-sheet growth more dependent on business conditions.

Julius Baer Group (JBAXY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $17.12B
Dividend Yield: 3.98%
Average Volume (3M): 38.36K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.4
Beta (1Y): 0.88
Revenue Growth: 9.01%
EPS Growth: 44.33%
Country: US
Employees: 7,390
Sector: Financial
Sector Strength: 68
Industry: Asset Management

Julius Baer Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Julius Bär Gruppe AG provides wealth management solutions in Switzerland, Europe, the Americas, Asia, and internationally. The company provides investment advisory and discretionary mandates; structured products, securities execution and advisory, an...

How the Company Makes Money

Julius Baer primarily earns revenue from wealth and asset management activities tied to client assets and transaction activity. A core stream is recurring management and advisory fees charged on assets under management (AUM) for discretionary mandate...

Julius Baer Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 20, 2026(Q2-2026)|% Change Since:-7.83%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 03, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call presented a strong operational and financial performance in H1: record AUM, record net profit (like-for-like +32%), double-digit revenue growth (12%), expanded gross margin and improved cost-to-income driven by disciplined cost control and efficiency actions. Capital and liquidity positions are robust (CET1 18.5%, LCR 344%). However, a material caveat is the ongoing implementation of a revised risk and compliance framework that is creating headwinds to net new money and is expected to spill into 2027, along with some credit-related clean-up, one-off write-offs and an expected build of costs in H2 as investments accelerate. On balance, the positive financial momentum, capital strength and clear strategic execution outweigh the near-term derisking-related flow impacts and investment-driven cost increases.

Positive Updates

Record High Assets Under Management

AUM reached CHF 547 billion, up 5% year-to-date and the highest level in the bank's history; monthly average AUM used for margin calculations rose 7% YoY to CHF 526 billion.

Negative Updates

Derisking and Revised Risk & Compliance Framework Weighing on Flows

Implementation of the revised risk and compliance framework has created headwinds to net new money that are expected to carry into 2027 and only normalize in 2028; management reiterates 2026 net new money will be below 2025 and it is too early to quantify the 2027 impact.

Company Guidance

Management reconfirmed its mid‑term targets and gave specific guidance: AUM stood at CHF 547bn (up 5% YTD; monthly avg CHF 526bn) and H1 net new money was CHF 5.7bn (2.2% annualised), but they expect 2026 net new money to be below 2025 with implementation headwinds from the revised risk & compliance framework spilling into 2027 (normalising in 2028); cost discipline remains a priority with a target cost/income ratio sustainably below 67% by 2028 (H1 cost/income 62.6%, exit May–June ~63%; H2 expected <67% on an 80 bps gross‑margin input), forward tax guidance of 18–20%, RM hiring of ~120 gross in 2026 with a slight net RM increase by year‑end (1,247 RMs at H1 end; 47 onboarded; 14 signed), capital and risk metrics maintained (CET1 ratio 18.5%, CET1 CHF 4.3bn, RWA CHF 23.3bn, risk density guidance 21–23%, Tier‑1 capital CHF 5.6bn, leverage exposure CHF 120bn, Tier‑1 leverage ratio 4.7%, LCR 344%), dividend policy unchanged (50% payout), and any further share buybacks remain subject to FINMA approval.

Julius Baer Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial performance is mixed. Strong revenue growth (+45%) and improved balance sheet health (debt-to-equity down to 1.14x) are offset by a 29% decline in net income and severely weak cash flow generation, with negative free cash flow of CHF 141 million. The inability to convert earnings to cash is a significant concern.

Income Statement

48Neutral

Balance Sheet

72Positive

Cash Flow

35Negative

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.04B	5.66B	3.90B	3.24B	4.30B	4.00B
Gross Profit	4.51B	3.83B	3.90B	813.40M	3.85B	3.87B
EBITDA	1.53B	1.15B	1.30B	758.60M	1.39B	1.51B
Net Income	1.15B	729.37M	1.02B	454.00M	949.60M	1.08B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	116.16B	107.61B	105.07B	96.79B	105.64B	116.31B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	7.45B	25.22B	13.78B	16.22B	18.91B	25.80B
Total Debt	11.12B	8.22B	20.60B	6.05B	14.05B	16.87B
Total Liabilities	108.81B	100.37B	98.24B	90.62B	99.35B	109.56B
Stockholders Equity	7.35B	7.24B	6.83B	6.16B	6.29B	6.73B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	123.82M	-140.87M	1.87B	-1.17B	1.72B	123.80M
Operating Cash Flow	426.74M	95.31M	2.13B	-929.10M	1.91B	320.60M
Investing Cash Flow	1.61B	1.03B	2.86B	-1.69B	-5.37B	764.60M
Financing Cash Flow	2.12B	-188.00M	-409.40M	79.30M	-3.48B	370.10M

Julius Baer Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative

Last Price16.77

Price Trends

50DMA17.62Negative

100DMA17.62Negative

200DMA16.82Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-0.25Negative

RSI44.61Neutral

STOCH55.61Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JBAXY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 16.77 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.94, below the 50-day MA of 17.62, and below the 200-day MA of 16.82, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JBAXY.

Julius Baer Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

JBAXY against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AB	79Outperform	$3.23B	10.38	25.21%	9.89%	―	11.43%
AMP	76Outperform	$43.36B	10.90	68.69%	1.34%	8.62%	21.49%
NTRS	73Outperform	$30.64B	13.18	18.41%	1.94%	6.60%	48.88%
BEN	68Neutral	$16.08B	21.09	7.42%	4.17%	8.39%	181.11%
Sector *	68Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
RJF	62Neutral	$30.24B	12.96	25.03%	1.37%	10.25%	15.27%
JBAXY	55Neutral	$17.23B	12.43	15.62%	3.98%	9.01%	44.33%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

JBAXY and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
JBAXY	Julius Baer Group	16.77	3.68	28.11%
AB	AllianceBernstein Holding	35.09	-1.91	-5.15%
AMP	Ameriprise Financial Services	490.83	44.38	9.94%
BEN	Franklin Resources	31.64	9.88	45.38%
RJF	Raymond James Financial	157.22	0.56	0.36%
NTRS	Northern Trust Corporation	169.16	44.13	35.29%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 21, 2026

Julius Baer Group AI Stock Analysis