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Samsara (IOT) AI Stock Analysis

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Samsara

(NYSE:IOT)

Select Model

Outperform 77 (OpenAI - Gpt-5.6Sol)

Rating:77Outperform

Price Target:

$49.00

▲(25.19% Upside)

Action:Reiterated

Date:09/15/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial momentum (scaling revenue, high gross margins, improving profitability) alongside a low-leverage balance sheet and solid, improving free cash flow. Technicals also support the setup with price above key moving averages and positive momentum indicators. The biggest offset is valuation, with an extremely high P/E that increases downside risk if growth, margins, or cash flow fall short; earnings-call risks also include near-term free cash flow margin pressure from device/inventory and supply-chain costs.

Positive Factors

Recurring SaaS model and expansion

Samsara combines recurring software subscriptions with hardware-enabled data capture, creating a durable monetization model. Cross-selling applications and expanding device deployments within existing customers can increase revenue per account while supporting retention and deeper operational integration.

Negative Factors

Hardware investment pressures free cash flow

Growth is requiring more devices to be purchased upfront while subscription revenue is recognized over customer contracts. Higher inventory commitments and elevated component and shipping costs can therefore suppress near-term cash conversion and make profitability more dependent on disciplined execution.

Read all positive and negative factors

Positive Factors

Negative Factors

Recurring SaaS model and expansion

Read all positive factors

Samsara Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Geography

Revenue by Geography
Shows where sales are coming from—domestic markets versus international regions—revealing which geographies drive growth and where the company is exposed to economic or currency risks. Fast international growth can expand the addressable market but may come with higher sales costs and longer payback periods.

Chart InsightsNon‑U.S. revenue is growing faster percentage‑wise, corroborating management’s claim of record Europe/Canada contribution and meaningful international net new ACV, but the U.S. still drives the bulk of revenue—so company growth and quarter-to-quarter cadence remain highly dependent on large U.S. enterprise upsells. That mix reduces geographic diversification today: it strengthens long‑term runway via multiproduct and emerging‑product adoption abroad, yet also preserves volatility and margin risk given AI/cloud COGS and hardware supply pressures called out on the call.

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Samsara (IOT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$22.24B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)6.68M

Price to Earnings (P/E)236.0

Beta (1Y)1.65

Revenue Growth29.50%

EPS GrowthN/A

CountryUS

Employees4,100

SectorTechnology

Sector Strength88

IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.16

Shares Outstanding380,273,040

10 Day Avg. Volume5,168,428

30 Day Avg. Volume6,675,295

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio18.70

Price to Book (P/B)11.32

Price to Sales (P/S)9.94

P/FCF Ratio77.54

Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01

Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01

Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$51.47

Price Target Upside31.50% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering18

EPS Forecast (FY)0.77

Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.05B

Samsara Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Samsara Inc. specializes in providing solutions that digitize and connect physical operations data to its centralized Connected Operations Cloud, accessible to clients across the United States and internationally. At the core of this cloud-based p...

How the Company Makes Money

Samsara primarily makes money by selling subscriptions to its cloud software platform (software-as-a-service). Customers pay recurring fees—typically contracted for a term—for access to applications such as fleet management (vehicle tracking/telem...

Samsara Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Sep 03, 2026

(Q2-2027)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Nov 26, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The call was strongly positive, characterized by 30% ARR and revenue growth, accelerating large-customer expansion, record customer additions, strong emerging-product adoption, improving operating leverage, consecutive GAAP profitability and constructive FY27 guidance. The primary negatives were a projected approximately 100-basis-point reduction in full-year free cash flow margin, higher upfront hardware and inventory requirements, rising supply chain costs and the early stage of AI-agent deployment.

Positive Updates

Strong Physical-AI End-Market Demand

Samsara said data-center buildout, site preparation, power and energy systems expansion, public infrastructure buildout, construction, field services and utilities are contributing to demand. Data-center customers helping with the buildout were described as busier than ever, with safety and efficiency front of mind.

Negative Updates

Lower Full-Year Free Cash Flow Margin Outlook

Samsara now expects FY27 free cash flow margin to be approximately 100 basis points lower than FY26, primarily due to more IoT devices required to support the stronger growth outlook, proactively purchasing more inventory to create a buffer for strong customer demand, and elevated supply chain costs in the second half of the year.

Read all updates

Q2-2027 Updates

Positive

Negative

Strong Physical-AI End-Market Demand

Read all positive updates

Company Guidance

For Q3, Samsara expects revenue to be between $514 million and $516 million, representing 24% year-over-year growth or 23% to 24% growth in constant currency, non-GAAP operating margin to be 21%, non-GAAP EPS to be between $0.18 and $0.19, and to be GAAP profitable; for full year FY '27, it expects revenue to be between $2.043 billion and $2.047 billion, representing 26% year-over-year growth, non-GAAP operating margin to be 21%, non-GAAP EPS to be between $0.76 and $0.78, and to be GAAP profitable, while free cash flow margin is expected to be approximately 100 basis points lower than FY '26, primarily due to more IoT devices required to support the stronger growth outlook, proactively purchasing more inventory to create a buffer given the strong customer demand, and elevated supply chain cost in the second half of the year.

Samsara Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong scaling and improving quality: revenue has expanded materially (to ~$1.85B TTM), gross margins are high (~71%–77%), and the business has reached positive GAAP net income in TTM. Balance sheet leverage is very low (debt-to-equity ~0.04) and cash generation is strong with positive operating cash flow (~$288M TTM) and free cash flow (~$255M TTM). Main risk is that profitability is still relatively modest and the company has a history of multi-year losses, making execution more sensitive if growth slows.

Income Statement

Positive

Balance Sheet

Very Positive

Cash Flow

Very Positive

Breakdown	TTM	Jan 2026	Jan 2025	Jan 2024	Jan 2023	Jan 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.85B	1.62B	1.25B	937.38M	652.54M	428.35M
Gross Profit	1.41B	1.24B	950.88M	690.35M	469.89M	303.86M
EBITDA	132.93M	24.95M	-164.45M	-171.08M	-167.10M	-304.39M
Net Income	90.55M	-9.12M	-154.91M	-286.73M	-247.42M	-355.02M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.77B	2.54B	2.02B	1.73B	1.62B	1.57B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	828.93M	833.79M	694.80M	547.66M	689.86M	921.22M
Total Debt	69.49M	72.77M	80.28M	99.49M	122.92M	144.96M
Total Liabilities	1.17B	1.12B	955.11M	819.70M	678.99M	578.98M
Stockholders Equity	1.60B	1.42B	1.07B	915.15M	938.02M	988.95M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	255.48M	207.44M	111.48M	-22.77M	-136.26M	-190.83M
Operating Cash Flow	288.37M	236.21M	131.66M	-11.81M	-103.02M	-171.48M
Investing Cash Flow	-232.61M	-189.53M	-66.62M	-78.69M	-631.85M	-20.04M
Financing Cash Flow	-41.53M	29.93M	27.10M	21.00M	14.21M	701.64M

Samsara Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price39.14

Price Trends

50DMA

38.77

Negative

100DMA

36.02

Positive

200DMA

33.64

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.25

Positive

RSI

46.20

Neutral

STOCH

33.44

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IOT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 39.14 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.14, above the 50-day MA of 38.77, and above the 200-day MA of 33.64, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.25 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for IOT.

Samsara Risk Analysis

Samsara disclosed 84 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Samsara reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Samsara Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MSFT	82 Outperform	$3.78T	28.49	33.22%	0.71%	17.79%	31.42%
TUYA	78 Outperform	$1.02B	12.35	8.34%	6.74%	7.02%	131.61%
IOT	77 Outperform	$22.24B	235.95	6.21%	―	29.50%	―
PLTR	73 Outperform	$449.30B	148.45	37.47%	―	78.92%	285.33%
ORCL	65 Neutral	$416.64B	21.19	42.58%	1.46%	21.62%	45.95%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
AIOT	57 Neutral	$369.12M	-20.71	-3.92%	―	15.14%	52.80%

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

IOT

Samsara

40.04

0.91

2.33%

AIOT

Powerfleet

2.80

-2.45

-46.67%

MSFT

Microsoft

512.80

1.27

0.25%

ORCL

Oracle

138.07

-147.45

-51.64%

PLTR

Palantir Technologies

190.04

2.99

1.60%

TUYA

Tuya

1.72

-0.76

-30.53%

Samsara Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings

Samsara Shareholders Reaffirm Board, Auditors, Executive Pay

Positive

Jul 23, 2026

At its annual meeting of stockholders held on July 22, 2026, Samsara Inc. shareholders elected eight directors, including CEO Sanjit Biswas and board members such as Marc Andreessen and Gary Steele, to serve until the next annual meeting. The voti...

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 15, 2026