Humana (HUM) Risk Analysis

We use a substantial portion of our revenues to pay the costs of health care services delivered to our members, including claims payments, capitation payments to providers (predetermined amounts paid to cover services), estimates of future payments to hospitals and others for medical care provided to our members, and various other costs. Generally, premiums in the health care business are fixed for one-year periods. Accordingly, costs we incur in excess of our benefit cost projections generally are not recovered in the contract year through higher premiums. We estimate the costs of our future benefit claims and other expenses using actuarial methods and assumptions based upon claim payment patterns, medical inflation, historical developments, including claim inventory levels and claim receipt patterns, and other relevant factors. We also record benefits payable for future payments. We continually review estimates of future payments relating to benefit claims costs for services incurred in the current and prior periods and make necessary adjustments to our reserves, including premium deficiency reserves where appropriate. However, these estimates involve extensive judgment, and have considerable inherent variability that is sensitive to claim payment patterns and medical cost trends. Many factors may and often do cause actual health care costs to exceed what was estimated and used to set our premiums. These factors may include: - increased use of medical facilities and services, and the increased cost of such services;- increased use or cost of prescription drugs, including specialty prescription drugs;- the introduction of new or costly treatments, prescription drugs, or new technologies;- our membership mix;- variances in actual versus estimated levels of cost associated with new products, benefits or lines of business, product changes or benefit level changes;- changes in the demographic characteristics of an account or market;- changes or reductions of our utilization management functions such as preauthorization of services, concurrent review or requirements for physician referrals;- changes in our purchase discounts or rebates received from manufacturers and wholesalers;- pharmacy volume rebates received from drug manufacturers, which in Medicare Part D are fully reported to CMS and factored into member premium pricing and CMS reimbursement to the plan;- catastrophes, including acts of terrorism, public health emergencies, epidemics or pandemics (such as COVID-19), or natural disasters (such as hurricanes and earthquakes) which could occur more frequently or with more intense effects as a result of the impact of global climate change;- medical cost inflation; and - government mandated benefits, member eligibility criteria, or other legislative, judicial, or regulatory changes. Key to our operational strategy is the implementation of clinical initiatives that we believe provide a better health care experience for our members, lower the cost of healthcare services delivered to our members, and appropriately document the risk profile of our members. Our profitability and competitiveness depend in large part on our ability to appropriately manage health care costs through, among other things, the application of medical management programs such as our chronic care management program. While we proactively attempt to effectively manage our operating expenses, increases or decreases in staff-related expenses, any costs associated with exiting products, additional investment in new products (including our opportunities in the Medicare programs, state-based contracts, and expansion of clinical capabilities as part of our integrated care delivery model), investments in health and well-being product offerings, acquisitions, new taxes and assessments, inflation, and implementation of regulatory requirements may increase our operating expenses. Failure to adequately price our products or estimate sufficient benefits payable or effectively manage our operating expenses, may result in a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial position, and cash flows. We are in a highly competitive industry. Some of our competitors are more established in the health care industry in terms of a larger market share and have greater financial resources than we do in some markets. In addition, other companies may enter our markets in the future, including emerging competitors in the Medicare or Medicaid programs or in the delivery of health care services. We believe that barriers to entry in our markets are not substantial, so the addition of new competitors can occur relatively easily, and customers enjoy significant flexibility in moving between competitors through the Medicare Annual Enrollment Period. While health plans compete on the basis of many factors, including service and the quality and depth of provider networks, we expect that price will continue to be a significant basis of competition. In addition to the challenge of controlling health care costs, we face intense competitive pressure to contain premium prices. Factors such as business consolidations, strategic alliances, legislative and regulatory reform, and marketing practices create pressure to contain premium price increases, despite being faced with increasing medical and administrative costs. The policies and decisions of the federal and state governments regarding the Medicare Advantage and Prescription Drug Plans, military services and Medicaid programs in which we participate have a substantial impact on our profitability. These governmental policies and decisions, which we cannot predict with certainty, directly shape the premiums or other revenues to us under the programs, the eligibility and enrollment of our members, the services we provide to our members, and our administrative, health care services, and other costs associated with these programs. Legislative or regulatory actions, such as changes to the programs in which we participate, those resulting in a reduction in premium payments to us, an increase in our cost of administrative and health care services, or additional fees, taxes or assessments, may have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial position, and cash flows. Premium increases, introduction of new product designs, and our relationships with our providers in various markets, among other issues, could also affect our membership levels. Other actions that could affect membership levels include our possible exit from or entrance into Medicare or commercial markets, or the termination of a large contract. If we do not compete effectively in our markets, if we set rates too high or too low in highly competitive markets to keep or increase our market share, if membership does not increase as we expect, if membership declines, or if we lose membership with favorable medical cost experience while retaining or increasing membership with unfavorable medical cost experience, our results of operations, financial position, and cash flows may be materially adversely affected.