Honeywell International (HON) Risk Analysis

Significant changes in actual investment return on pension assets, discount rates, and other factors could adversely affect our results of operations and require cash pension contributions in future periods. Changes in discount rates and actual asset returns different than our anticipated asset returns can result in significant non-cash actuarial gains or losses, which we record in the fourth quarter of each fiscal year, and, if applicable, in any quarter in which an interim remeasurement is triggered. With regard to cash pension contributions, funding requirements for our pension plans are largely dependent upon interest rates, actual investment returns on pension assets, and the impact of legislative or regulatory changes related to pension funding obligations.

U.S. government contracts are subject to termination by the government, either for the convenience of the government or for our failure to perform consistent with the terms of the applicable contract. Our contracts with the U.S. government are also subject to government audits that may recommend downward price adjustments and other changes. When appropriate and prudent, we made adjustments and paid voluntary refunds in the past and may do so in the future. In addition, U.S. government contracts are subject to congressional funding, which may be unavailable due to changes in priorities or subject to continuing resolution, which may result in funding reductions, eliminations, or other effects that could impact our business. We are also subject to government investigations of business practices and compliance with government procurement and security regulations. If, as a result of any such investigation or other government investigations (including investigation of violations of certain environmental, employment, or export laws), Honeywell or one of its businesses were found to have violated applicable law, then it could be suspended from bidding on or receiving awards of new government contracts, suspended from contract performance pending the completion of legal proceedings, and/or have its export privileges suspended.

The cost of raw materials is a key element in the cost of our products, particularly in Energy and Sustainability Solutions (copper, fluorspar, tungsten salts, ethylene, aluminum, and molybdenum) and in Aerospace Technologies (nickel, steel, titanium, and other metals). As of December 31, 2024, the majority of the raw materials supply base of Aerospace Technologies and Energy and Sustainability Solutions were under contract. While we have implemented mitigation strategies to reduce the impact of supply chain disruptions, any inability to source necessary materials when and as needed, offset material price or labor inflation through increased prices to customers, formula-driven or long-term fixed price contracts with suppliers, productivity actions, or commodity hedges could adversely affect our results of operations. Many major components, product equipment items, and raw materials, particularly in Aerospace Technologies, are procured or subcontracted on a single or sole-source basis. Although we maintain a qualification and performance surveillance process and we believe that sources of supply for raw materials and components are generally adequate, it is difficult to predict what effects shortages or price increases, in addition to other supply chain disruptions, may have in the future. Our ability to manage inventory and meet delivery requirements may be constrained by our suppliers’ inability to scale production and adjust delivery of long-lead time products during times of volatile demand. In addition, current or future global economic uncertainty, including inflation and high interest rates, supply chain and labor disruptions, unemployment rates, banking instability, any U.S. government shutdown, any downgrades in the U.S. government's sovereign credit rating, public health crises, volatile financial markets, geopolitical instability and regional conflicts, and potential recession may affect the financial stability of our key suppliers or their access to financing, which may in turn affect their ability to perform their obligations to us. If one or more of our suppliers experiences financial difficulties, delivery delays, or other performance problems, our resulting inability to fill our supply needs would jeopardize our ability to fulfill obligations under commercial and government contracts, which could, in turn, result in reduced sales and profits, contract penalties or terminations, and damage to customer relationships. In an effort to reduce the impact of current and future supply chain disruptions, we have implemented short-term and long-term strategies to reduce the impact of such disruptions, including pricing actions, longer-term planning for constrained materials, material supply tracking tools, direct engagement with key suppliers to meet customer demand, and development of new or redesigned products that satisfy our product quality controls and engineering qualifications and/or any applicable regulatory requirements. We cannot provide any assurance that our mitigation strategies will continue to be successful, or that we will be able to alter our strategies or develop new strategies if and as needed.

In response to growing customer, investor, employee, governmental, and other stakeholder interest in our ESG practices, including our procedures, standards, performance metrics, and goals, we have increased reporting of our ESG programs and performance and have established and announced goals and other objectives related to ESG matters. These goal statements reflect our current plans and aspirations and are not guarantees that we will be able to achieve them. Our ability to achieve any goal or objective, including with respect to ESG initiatives, is subject to numerous risks, many of which are outside of our control. Examples of such risks include: (i) the availability and cost of low- or non-carbon-based energy sources and technologies, (ii) evolving regulatory requirements affecting ESG standards or disclosures, (iii) the availability of suppliers that can meet our sustainability, diversity and other standards, (iv) our ability to recruit, develop, and retain diverse talent in our labor markets, and (v) the impact of our organic growth and acquisitions or dispositions of businesses or operations. In addition, standards for tracking and reporting on ESG matters have not been harmonized and continue to evolve. Our processes and controls for reporting of ESG matters may not always comply with evolving and disparate standards for identifying, measuring, and reporting ESG metrics, our interpretation of reporting standards may differ from those of others, and such standards may change over time, any of which could result in significant revisions to our performance metrics, goals, or reported progress in achieving such goals. In addition, certain of our products and services, including offerings in our Defense and Space business unit, are unattractive to certain investors and may cause us to be increasingly subject to ESG-driven investment practices that preclude investment in our debt and equity. On the other hand, some investors have a negative response to ESG practices as a result of anti-ESG sentiment and may choose not to invest in us, or divest in their holdings of us, as a result of our ESG practices and initiatives. Furthermore, there is also an increasing number of state-level anti-ESG initiatives in the U.S. that may conflict with other regulatory requirements, resulting in regulatory uncertainty. If our ESG practices or business portfolio do not meet evolving investor or other stakeholder expectations and standards, then our reputation, our ability to attract or retain employees, and our attractiveness as an investment, supplier, business partner, or acquiror could be negatively impacted. Our failure or perceived failure to pursue or fulfill our goals, targets, and objectives or to satisfy various reporting standards within the timelines we announce, or at all, could have similar negative impacts and expose us to government enforcement actions and private litigation.

We maintain long-term contractual relationships with many of our customers, suppliers, and other counterparties. While we monitor the financial health of these counterparties, we are exposed to credit and market risks of such counterparties, including those concentrated in the same or similar industries and geographic regions. Changes in political and economic conditions could also lead to concerns about the creditworthiness of counterparties and their ability to pay in the same or similar industry or geography, impacting our ability to renew our long-term contractual arrangements or collect amounts due under these arrangements. Among other factors, geopolitical events, inflation, rising interest rates, banking instability, and changes in economic conditions, including an economic downturn or recession, could also result in the credit deterioration or insolvency of a significant counterparty.

Cybersecurity is a critical component of the Company’s enterprise risk management program. Global cybersecurity threats and incidents can range from uncoordinated individual attempts to gain unauthorized access to IT, operational technology, and online services infrastructure to sophisticated and targeted measures known as advanced persistent threats, directed at the Company, its products, its customers, and/or its third-party software and service providers, including cloud providers. Our customers, including the U.S. government, are increasingly requiring cybersecurity protections and mandating cybersecurity standards in our products, and we may incur additional costs to comply with such demands. While we have experienced, and expect to continue to experience, these types of threats and incidents, none of them to date have been material to the Company. We seek to deploy comprehensive measures to deter, prevent, detect, respond to, and mitigate these threats, including identity and access controls, data protection, vulnerability assessments, continuous monitoring of our IT networks and systems, and maintenance of backup and protective systems. Despite these efforts, cybersecurity incidents (against us, parties with whom we contract, or software used in our business), including incidents due to human error, third-party action, including actions of foreign actors, which risk may be exacerbated by the current Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts and U.S. and international response, insider attacks, the introduction of computer viruses and/or malicious or destructive code, phishing or denial-of-service attacks, the introduction of computer viruses and/or malicious or destructive code, ransomware or other malware, social engineering, malfeasance, other unauthorized physical or electronic access, or other vulnerabilities, depending on their nature and scope, could potentially result in the misappropriation, destruction, corruption or unavailability of critical data and confidential or proprietary information (our own or that of third parties), theft of funds, and the disruption of business operations. In addition, the techniques used to obtain unauthorized access to sensitive data continue to evolve and become more sophisticated and may not be recognized until launched against a target; accordingly, we may be unable to anticipate these techniques or implement adequate preventative measures, and future cybersecurity incidents could go undetected and persist for an extended period of time. Furthermore, to the extent artificial intelligence capabilities continue to improve and are increasingly adopted, they may be used to identify vulnerabilities and craft increasingly sophisticated cybersecurity attacks, including the use of generative artificial intelligence to conduct more sophisticated social engineering attacks on the Company, suppliers, or customers. In addition, vulnerabilities may be introduced from the use of artificial intelligence by us, our financial services providers and other vendors and third-party providers. Our customers, partners (including our suppliers), subcontractors, and other third parties to whom we entrust confidential data, and on whom we rely on to provide products and services, face similar threats and growing requirements. While we aim to perform cybersecurity due diligence on our key vendors and service providers, we do not control such third parties, and our ability to monitor their cybersecurity-related controls, safeguards and processes is limited. Further, we cannot ensure the cybersecurity measures they take will be sufficient to protect any information we share with them or prevent any disruption arising from a technology failure, cyber-attack, or other information or security breach. We depend on such parties to implement adequate controls and safeguards to protect against and report cyber incidents. If such parties fail to deter, detect, or report cybersecurity incidents in a timely manner, we may suffer from financial and other harm, including to our information, operations, performance, employees, and reputation. The potential consequences of a material cybersecurity incident and its effects include financial loss, reputational damage, litigation with third parties, theft of intellectual property, fines levied by the Federal Trade Commission or other government agencies, diminution in the value of our investment in research, development, and engineering, and increased cybersecurity protection and remediation costs due to the increasing sophistication and proliferation of threats, which in turn could have a material impact on our competitiveness, business, financial condition, and results of operations. In addition, cybersecurity laws and regulations continue to evolve, and are increasingly demanding, both in the U.S. and globally, which adds compliance complexity and may increase our costs of compliance and expose us to reputational damage or litigation, monetary damages, regulatory enforcement actions, or fines in one or more jurisdictions. We cannot be certain that our cybersecurity insurance coverage will be adequate for liabilities actually incurred, that insurance will continue to be available to us on economically reasonable terms, or at all, or that any insurer will not deny coverage as to any future claim.

•Aerospace Technologies—Our Aerospace business is impacted by customer buying patterns of aftermarket parts, supplier stability, factory transitions, and global supply chain capacity constraints that may lead to shortages of crucial components. Operating results may be adversely affected by downturns in the global demand for air travel, which may impact new aircraft production or result in the delay or cancellation of new aircraft orders, delays in launch schedules for new aircrafts, the retirement of aircrafts, and reductions in global flying hours, which impacts air transport and regional, business, and general aviation aircraft utilization rates. Operating results may also be adversely affected by any decrease in air travel demand due to regional restrictions or suspension of service for events related to public health, safety, the environment, or regional conflicts. Operating results could also be impacted by changes in overall trends related to end market demand for the product portfolio, as well as new entrants and non-traditional players entering the market. Operating results in our Defense and Space business unit may be affected by the mix of U.S. and foreign government appropriations for defense and space programs and by compliance risks. Results may also be impacted by the potential introduction of counterfeit parts into our global supply chain. •Industrial Automation—Operating results may be adversely impacted by reduced investments in process automation, safety monitoring, and plant capacity utilization initiatives, fluctuations in retail markets, a slowdown in demand for safety products, changes in the competitive landscape, including new market entrants and new technologies that may lead to product commoditization, and adverse industry economic conditions, all of which could result in lower market share, reduced selling prices, and lower margins. •Building Automation—Operating results may be adversely impacted by downturns in the level of global buildings and infrastructure construction activity (including retrofits and upgrades), lower capital spending and operating expenditures on projects, changes in the competitive landscape, including new market entrants and new technologies, and fluctuations in inventory levels in distribution channels. •Energy and Sustainability Solutions—Operating results may be adversely impacted by downturns in capacity utilization for chemical, industrial, refining, petrochemical, and semiconductor plants, our customers’ availability of capital for refinery construction and expansion, raw material demand and supply, product commoditization, continued illegal imports of hydrofluorocarbons into Europe, and our ability to maximize our facilities’ production capacity and minimize downtime. Periods of increased volatility in oil and natural gas prices may result in less investment by our customers and therefore, lower demand for our products and services.

Our international operations, including U.S. exports, represent more than half of the Company’s sales. Risks related to international operations include exchange control regulations, wage and price controls, fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates, antitrust regulations, employment regulations, foreign investment laws, import, export, and other trade restrictions and barriers (such as tariffs, sanctions, and embargoes), differing levels of protection of intellectual property, acts of industrial espionage, violations by our employees of anti-corruption laws (despite our efforts to mitigate such risk), changes in regulations regarding transactions with state-owned enterprises, nationalization of private enterprises, acts of terrorism, acts of war, civil strife, and our ability to hire and maintain qualified staff and maintain the safety of our employees in these regions. Instability and uncertainties arising from the global geopolitical environment and the evolving international and domestic political, regulatory, and economic landscape, including the potential for changes in global trade policies, such as sanctions and trade barriers, and trends such as populism, economic nationalism, and negative sentiment toward multinational companies, as well as the cost of compliance with increasingly complex and often conflicting regulations worldwide, can impair our flexibility in modifying product, marketing, pricing, or other strategies for growing our businesses, as well as our ability to improve productivity and maintain acceptable operating margins. Existing free trade laws and regulations provide certain beneficial duties and tariffs for qualifying imports and exports. Changes in laws or policies governing the terms of foreign trade, and in particular increased trade restrictions, tariffs, or taxes on imports from countries where we manufacture products or from where we import products or raw materials, either directly or through our suppliers, could have an impact on our competitive position and financial results. The U.S. continues to implement certain trade actions, including imposing tariffs on certain goods imported from China and other countries, which has resulted in retaliatory tariffs by China and other countries. More significant tariffs have been proposed by the new administration in the U.S., although it is not possible to predict the extent or focus of any such tariffs at this time. Additional tariffs, export controls, and sanctions laws imposed by the U.S. on a broader range of imports, or further retaliatory trade measures taken by China or other countries in response, could increase the cost of our products. In response to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the U.S. and other countries imposed actions including sanctions, export and import controls, and trade restrictions with respect to Russian and Belarusian governments, government-related entities, and other entities and individuals. Further, the Russian government implemented retaliatory actions against the U.S. and other nation members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as well as certain other nations. Given the uncertainty inherent in our remaining obligations related to our contracts with Russian counterparties, we do not believe it is possible to develop estimates of reasonably possible loss in excess of current accruals for these matters. As the conflict continues to evolve, existing conditions may worsen, or other impacts, including escalation of the conflict in other regions of Europe where there is a material portion of our business, increased tension between Russia and the U.S. and other NATO members and other countries, or other impacts that are unknown at this time, could lead to increased charges and could have a material adverse effect on our consolidated financial position. These impacts may result in increased costs or additional impacts on our operations and may adversely affect our ability to meet contractual and financial obligations, results of operations, and financial condition. To the extent the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, including as a result of the policies of the new administration in the U.S. (which we are unable to predict at this time), it may also negatively impact other risk factors disclosed in this Form 10-K and further impact our financial results. Such risks include, but are not limited to, adverse effects on macroeconomic conditions, including inflation and consumer spending; cybersecurity incidents and other disruptions to our information technology (IT) infrastructure or that of our customers and suppliers, including disruptions at our cloud computing, server, systems, and other third party IT service providers; adverse changes in international trade policies and relations; our ability to implement and execute our business strategy, particularly in Eastern Europe and surrounding regions; disruptions in global supply chains; energy shortages; terrorist activities targeting U.S. government contractors and/or critical infrastructure; our exposure to foreign currency fluctuations; and constraints, volatility, or disruption in the capital markets. Operating outside of the U.S. also exposes us to foreign exchange risk, which we monitor and seek to reduce through hedging activities. However, foreign exchange hedging activities bear a financial cost and may not always be available to us or be successful in eliminating such volatility. Finally, we generate significant amounts of cash outside of the U.S. that is invested with financial and non-financial counterparties. While we employ comprehensive controls regarding global cash management to guard against cash or investment loss and to ensure our ability to fund our operations and commitments, a material disruption to the counterparties with whom we transact business could expose Honeywell to financial loss. Operating outside the U.S. also exposes us to additional intellectual property risk. The laws and enforcement practices of certain jurisdictions in which we operate may not protect our intellectual property rights to the same extent as in the U.S. and may impose joint venture, technology transfer, local service or other foreign investment requirements, and restrictions that potentially compromise control over our technology and proprietary information. Failure of foreign jurisdictions to protect our intellectual property rights, an inability to effectively enforce such rights in foreign jurisdictions, or the imposition of foreign jurisdiction investment or sourcing restrictions or requirements could result in loss of valuable proprietary information and could impact our competitive position and financial results.