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Li Bao Ge Group Ltd. (1869) AI Stock Analysis

HK:1869

Li Bao Ge Group Ltd.

(HKEX:1869)

Select Model
Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:HKD 0.05â–¼(-11.11% Downside)
Action:upgraded
Date:09/09/26

The overall score is low primarily because the company shows sharply deteriorating fundamentals—heavy revenue contraction, recurring losses, negative equity, shrinking assets, and weakening cash flows signal elevated solvency and liquidity risk. Technical indicators add moderate downside bias, with the price in a longer-term downtrend and only modest short-term support. Valuation is constrained by a negative P/E and no dividend, meaning investors are relying on a speculative turnaround rather than strong earnings or income, keeping the stock firmly in a high-risk category.

Positive Factors
Debt reductionSubstantial deleveraging reduces the company’s direct debt burden and can lower refinancing pressure over time. Although negative equity still weakens the capital structure, the reduction in borrowings provides greater scope to preserve cash and manage obligations than in 2021.
Negative Factors
Persistent revenue declineThree consecutive years of falling revenue show sustained weakening in the company’s top line rather than a single-period setback. Continued contraction can reduce operating scale, limit the ability to absorb fixed costs, and make a durable return to profitability more difficult.

Li Bao Ge Group Ltd. (1869) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)

-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%HK:1869-57.94%EWH+8.05%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
HKD 89.69M
Dividend Yield
―
Average Volume (3M)
4.56M
Price to Earnings (P/E)
-15.5
Beta (1Y)
-0.28
Revenue Growth
-35.99%
EPS Growth
93.01%
Country
Hong Kong
Employees
190
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Sector Strength
61
Industry
Restaurants

Li Bao Ge Group Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Kafelaku Coffee Holding Limited, an investment holding company, provides food catering and beverage services in Hong Kong and the People’s Republic of China. It operates restaurants under the Star of Canton and Li Bao House brands and coffee shops un...

How the Company Makes Money

Specific, verifiable details about Li Bao Ge Group Ltd.’s revenue model (key revenue streams, monetization structure, and any material partnerships or contributing factors) are not available from the information provided in this request. null

Li Bao Ge Group Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue has collapsed from 274M in 2021 to 106M in 2025, gross profit turned negative, net margins have slipped back into losses, equity is deeply negative, and operating cash flow has deteriorated, indicating severe profitability, solvency, and liquidity pressure despite some debt reduction.

Income Statement

25Negative

Balance Sheet

15Very Negative

Cash Flow

20Very Negative
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue124.23M106.14M139.62M178.52M135.55M274.57M
Gross Profit4.34M-216.00K20.29M38.95M33.02M89.93M
EBITDA-24.61M-8.76M-17.04M39.79M3.76M-29.20M
Net Income-4.92M-4.68M-48.68M7.99M-41.35M-92.43M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets77.53M62.27M87.62M108.01M141.92M206.51M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.51M3.94M10.57M16.88M24.29M26.82M
Total Debt12.25M24.14M55.10M73.99M121.60M165.89M
Total Liabilities154.00M128.19M152.04M165.74M208.59M245.51M
Stockholders Equity-71.29M-60.95M-59.64M-52.79M-61.60M-35.32M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-19.29M-6.12M1.07M29.07M6.90M37.87M
Operating Cash Flow-19.28M-6.12M9.79M34.52M10.27M42.01M
Investing Cash Flow19.70M11.33M-20.25M-4.34M-1.71M-3.82M
Financing Cash Flow-3.62M-12.24M4.56M-37.09M-9.37M-42.15M

Li Bao Ge Group Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price0.05

Price Trends

50DMA0.05Negative
100DMA0.07Negative
200DMA0.09Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-0.00Negative
RSI41.29Neutral
STOCH61.11Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:1869, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.05 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.05, above the 50-day MA of 0.05, and below the 200-day MA of 0.09, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.00 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.11 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:1869.

Li Bao Ge Group Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

HK:1869 against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
HK:6811HK:681172OutperformHKD 1.52B10.6915.54%7.13%8.46%56.14%
HK:0341HK:034162NeutralHKD 3.35B20.376.13%6.73%-4.50%-29.22%
HK:0538HK:053862NeutralHKD 845.94M34.000.75%10.21%8.18%100.92%
Sector *61Neutral$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
HK:9922HK:992254NeutralHKD 1.19B14.012.33%2.23%-12.56%82.25%
HK:1314HK:131451NeutralHKD 223.33M23.141.95%―-2.56%-23.91%
HK:1869HK:186944NeutralHKD 89.69M-15.487.44%―-35.99%93.01%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-50%-25%0%25%50%HK:1869HK:9922HK:1314HK:0341HK:0538HK:6811Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
HK:1869 and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
HK:1869Li Bao Ge Group Ltd.0.05-0.08-58.59%
HK:9922Jiumaojiu International Holdings Ltd.0.90-0.87-49.29%
HK:1314Tsui Wah Holdings Ltd.0.16-0.02-10.50%
HK:0341Cafe de Coral Holdings Ltd.5.940.091.52%
HK:0538Ajisen (China) Holdings Limited0.78-0.07-8.07%
HK:6811Tai Hing Group Holdings Ltd.1.560.5250.05%

Li Bao Ge Group Ltd. Corporate Events

Kafelaku Coffee Strengthens Governance With New Independent Director

Oct 15, 2026

Kafelaku Coffee Holding Limited, a Hong Kong-listed coffee retail group incorporated in the Cayman Islands, operates branded coffee outlets and related businesses across its core Asian markets. The company emphasizes listed-entity governance through...

Kafelaku Coffee Sets Out Board and Committee Structure

Oct 15, 2026

Kafelaku Coffee Holding Limited has announced the current composition of its board of directors, detailing the roles of executive, non-executive and independent non-executive members. The board is chaired by Ms. Szeto Huen Sum Hannah, with Mr. Cui Zi...

Kafelaku Coffee Plans Rebrand to AI Dining Group

Oct 14, 2026

Kafelaku Coffee Holding Limited, incorporated in the Cayman Islands and listed in Hong Kong under stock code 1869, operates as a group focused on dining and coffee-related businesses. The company is seeking to reposition itself under the new English...

Kafelaku Coffee Further Extends Share Placing Timeline and Lowers Offer Price

Oct 14, 2026

Kafelaku Coffee Holding Limited has agreed with its placing agent to further extend the long stop date for a planned placing of new shares under its general mandate to 4 November 2026, allowing more time to satisfy conditions precedent for the transa...

Kafelaku Coffee Appoints New Company Secretary After Resignation

Oct 2, 2026

Kafelaku Coffee Holdings Limited has announced the resignation of company secretary and authorised representative Mr. Chu Wing Tim Benedict, effective 1 October 2026, as he seeks to focus on other business commitments. The board noted that Mr. Chu le...

Kafelaku Coffee Ousts Two Directors, Moves to Fix Listing Rule Breach

Sep 30, 2026

Kafelaku Coffee Holding Limited has removed executive director Ma Xiaoping and independent non-executive director Zhao Yuanyuan with immediate effect, citing their alleged obstruction of corporate activities and failure to act in the company’s...

Kafelaku Coffee Sets Out Board and Committee Structure

Sep 30, 2026

Kafelaku Coffee Holding Limited has announced the current composition of its board of directors, detailing the roles of executive, non-executive and independent non-executive members. The company also set out the membership and leadership of its four...

Kafelaku Coffee Extends Share Placing Deadline and Lifts Offer Price

Sep 23, 2026

Kafelaku Coffee Holding Limited has further extended the long stop date for its planned placing of new shares under a general mandate to 14 October 2026, allowing more time to satisfy conditions precedent agreed with its placing agent. The move signa...

Kafelaku Coffee Extends Share Placing Deadline and Raises Offer Price

Sep 2, 2026

Kafelaku Coffee Holding Limited has adjusted the timetable and pricing of its planned placing of new shares under its general mandate. The company and its placing agent agreed to extend the long stop date for completion from 2 September 2026 to 23 Se...

Kafelaku Coffee Narrows Interim Loss Despite Sharp Revenue Decline

Aug 26, 2026

Kafelaku Coffee Holding Limited, a Hong Kong-listed coffee and food service operator, reported interim unaudited results for the six months ended 30 June 2026. The Group’s business centers on coffee-focused retail and catering services, with fi...

Kafelaku Coffee Clarifies Non-Operating Subsidiary Disposal and Books Gain

Aug 21, 2026

Kafelaku Coffee Holding Limited has issued supplemental details on its previously announced disposal of certain subsidiaries, clarifying that the consideration was set primarily to cover administrative fees and expenses, including stamp duty, because...

Kafelaku Coffee Sheds Dormant Subsidiaries as It Refocuses on Coffee Expansion

Aug 20, 2026

Kafelaku Coffee Holding Limited, a Cayman Islands–incorporated company listed in Hong Kong, operates in the food and beverage industry across Hong Kong and the PRC. It is currently expanding into coffee-related businesses, seeking to leverage i...

Kafelaku Coffee Moves to Shore Up Liquidity and Expand Coffee Business

Aug 20, 2026

Kafelaku Coffee Holding Limited has outlined a series of measures to improve its liquidity and financial position following a disclaimer of opinion in its latest audited results and recent changes in its major shareholding and board leadership. The g...

Kafelaku Coffee Schedules Board Meeting to Review Interim Results and Dividend

Aug 14, 2026

Kafelaku Coffee Holding Limited has scheduled a board meeting for Wednesday, 26 August 2026 to review and approve the unaudited consolidated financial results for the six months ended 30 June 2026. The board will also consider the declaration of an i...

Kafelaku Coffee Launches Discounted Share Placing to Raise HK$11 Million

Aug 12, 2026

Kafelaku Coffee Holding Limited has entered into an agreement to place up to 282,050,000 new shares under its general mandate at HK$0.039 per share through Yuen Meta (International) Securities Limited. The placing shares, to be allotted to at least s...

Kafelaku Coffee Clarifies Details on New Chairman’s Identity and Roles

Aug 11, 2026

Kafelaku Coffee Holding Limited issued a supplemental announcement clarifying details about its newly appointed chairman and executive director, Ms. Szeto Huen Sum Hannah. The company disclosed that she previously used the name Szeto Ho Man and forma...

Kafelaku Coffee Sets Out Board Line-Up and Governance Structure

Aug 4, 2026

Kafelaku Coffee Holding Limited has announced the composition of its board of directors, naming Ms. Szeto Huen Sum Hannah as chairman and Mr. Cui Zifeng as chief executive officer, alongside several executive, non-executive, and independent non-execu...

Kafelaku Coffee Names Finance Executive as New Chair After Cui Resigns

Aug 4, 2026

Kafelaku Coffee Holding Limited has announced that Mr. Cui Zhiqiang will step down as chairman of the board, executive director, chairman of the nomination committee, member of the remuneration committee and authorised representative with effect from...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Sep 09, 2026