Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited (1788) AI Stock Analysis

Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited

(HKEX:1788)

Select Model

Rating:65Neutral

Price Target:HKD 3.00▲(5.45% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:08/17/26

Moderate score driven by financial recovery potential offset by volatility and leverage risks; supportive technical momentum and fair valuation add balance, though overbought signals warrant caution.

Positive Factors

Sharp 2025 earnings reboundThe substantial improvement in revenue and profitability strengthens internal capital generation and demonstrates operating leverage. If retained across a normalized market cycle, the rebound could support investment in the company’s brokerage, financing and capital-markets franchises.

Negative Factors

High and rising leverageRising leverage relative to a modest equity base increases balance-sheet sensitivity to market losses, funding costs and regulatory capital requirements. It can constrain strategic flexibility and make earnings less resilient during weaker trading or financing conditions.

Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited (1788) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)

Market Cap: HKD 27.06B
Dividend Yield: 2.46%
Average Volume (3M): 37.33M
Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.4
Beta (1Y): 1.53
Revenue Growth: 43.49%
EPS Growth: 109.36%
Country: Hong Kong
Employees: 729
Sector: Financial
Sector Strength: 68
Industry: Financial - Capital Markets

Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited, an investment holding firm based in Central, Hong Kong, delivers a comprehensive array of financial services both domestically and globally. The company's Wealth Management division provides customized fin...

How the Company Makes Money

The company primarily makes money by earning fees, commissions, and trading/financing income across its financial services platforms. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Brokerage and wealth management: commission and fee income from executing...

Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue volatility with strong projected growth in 2025, robust margins in high-growth years, but high debt-to-equity and inconsistent cash flows indicate leverage and liquidity risks.

Income Statement

72Positive

Balance Sheet

58Neutral

Cash Flow

48Neutral

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.25B	6.21B	2.17B	3.22B	2.32B	3.97B
Gross Profit	6.90B	5.82B	3.47B	2.33B	2.11B	3.21B
EBITDA	4.77B	4.17B	2.74B	1.77B	615.02M	2.14B
Net Income	1.47B	1.35B	347.78M	201.26M	80.38M	1.09B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	217.02B	153.50B	130.17B	107.54B	94.46B	106.29B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	114.10B	65.76B	80.91B	59.27B	40.02B	28.13B
Total Debt	151.19B	100.44B	89.43B	69.73B	58.53B	60.12B
Total Liabilities	200.72B	137.53B	115.15B	92.57B	79.52B	90.85B
Stockholders Equity	16.19B	15.86B	14.91B	14.84B	14.81B	15.31B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-24.61B	2.56B	1.74B	-4.94B	-1.92B	38.97M
Operating Cash Flow	-24.57B	2.59B	1.78B	-4.91B	1.66B	5.88B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.22B	-3.21B	-50.75M	-32.67M	-39.30M	-43.06M
Financing Cash Flow	34.21B	8.60B	-2.23B	4.58B	801.87M	-5.98B

Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNeutral

Last Price2.85

Price Trends

50DMA2.88Negative

100DMA2.53Positive

200DMA2.53Positive

Market Momentum

MACD-0.00Positive

RSI44.85Neutral

STOCH65.33Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:1788, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 2.85 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.87, below the 50-day MA of 2.88, and above the 200-day MA of 2.53, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.00 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for HK:1788.

Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

HK:1788 against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HK:2611	74Outperform	HKD 307.29B	8.30	9.38%	5.73%	37.61%	-2.94%
HK:6886	68Neutral	HKD 170.74B	7.55	9.61%	4.54%	123.03%	20.90%
Sector *	68Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
HK:6030	65Neutral	HKD 417.31B	9.88	12.77%	3.97%	101.98%	67.41%
HK:1788	65Neutral	HKD 27.06B	18.44	9.18%	2.46%	43.49%	109.36%
HK:6099	60Neutral	HKD 151.36B	6.54	15.54%	5.76%	97.85%	74.02%
HK:6066	54Neutral	HKD 178.12B	13.40	14.55%	3.71%	2.88%	38.11%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

HK:1788 and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
HK:1788	Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited	2.85	-0.85	-23.00%
HK:6030	CITIC Securities Co Class H	19.88	-8.37	-29.62%
HK:6886	Huatai Securities Co Class H	14.72	-3.65	-19.86%
HK:6099	China Merchants Securities Co., Ltd. Class H	12.30	-2.86	-18.88%
HK:6066	CSC Financial Co., Ltd. Class H	10.29	-2.40	-18.89%
HK:2611	Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. Class H	13.02	-1.48	-10.23%

Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited Corporate Events

Guotai Haitong Launches HK$3.00-Per-Share Offer to Privatise Guotai Junan International

Aug 7, 2026

Guotai Haitong Financial Holdings has put forward a pre-conditional proposal to privatise Guotai Junan International Holdings via a scheme of arrangement under Hong Kong company law. If completed, all scheme shares will be cancelled, replaced by new...

Guotai Junan International Sets August Board Meeting on Interim Results and Dividend

Aug 4, 2026

Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited, a Hong Kong-incorporated financial services company listed under stock code 1788, operates through subsidiaries to provide securities and investment-related services to regional and international clients....

Guotai Junan International Halts Trading in Shares and Notes Pending Takeover Announcement

Jul 23, 2026

Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited announced that trading in its shares and three series of U.S. dollar-denominated notes listed in Hong Kong has been halted from 9:00 a.m. on 23 July 2026. The suspension covers its 2028 fixed-rate notes, 20...

Guotai Junan International Secures Shareholder Backing for Dividends, Board and Capital Mandates

May 22, 2026

Guotai Junan International Holdings reported the poll results of its annual general meeting held on 22 May 2026, where all proposed ordinary resolutions received strong shareholder support. Shareholders approved the 2025 audited financial statements,...

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 17, 2026

Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited AI Stock Analysis