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Qilu Expressway Co., Ltd. Class H (1576) AI Stock Analysis

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HK:1576

Qilu Expressway Co., Ltd. Class H

(HKEX:1576)

Select Model
Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:HKD 2.00â–²(19.76% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:08/04/26

The score is primarily constrained by financial performance: revenue volatility, rising leverage, and persistently negative free cash flow outweigh the improved 2025 profitability. Technicals are supportive with the stock trading above major moving averages and positive MACD, while valuation is a tailwind due to a low P/E and high dividend yield.

Positive Factors
Stable toll-road business modelOperating toll-road concessions is a durable, regulated infrastructure business with long-lived assets and steady underlying demand from passenger and freight transport. This creates predictable baseline revenue and essential service status that supports medium-term cash flow stability and strategic planning.
Negative Factors
Severe revenue decline and volatilityA roughly 56% annual revenue drop highlights material exposure to traffic, pricing, or concession headwinds that can sharply alter cash flow. Such top-line volatility undermines forecasting, weakens resilience to shocks, and complicates sustaining capex, dividends, or debt servicing across multiple quarters.

Qilu Expressway Co., Ltd. Class H (1576) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)

-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%HK:1576+1.71%EWH+7.37%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
HKD 3.34B
Dividend Yield
8.26%
Average Volume (3M)
27.74K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
7.7
Beta (1Y)
0.37
Revenue Growth
-52.79%
EPS Growth
-10.61%
Country
Hong Kong
Employees
676
Sector
Industrials
Sector Strength
63
Industry
Industrial - Infrastructure Operations

Qilu Expressway Co., Ltd. Class H Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Qilu Expressway Company Limited, along with its associated entities, is primarily engaged in the operation and management of expressways across the People's Republic of China. The company's core activities involve the development, upkeep, and daily a...

How the Company Makes Money

The company primarily makes money by operating toll expressways and collecting toll revenue from vehicles using its expressway assets. This revenue is typically driven by (i) traffic volume (vehicle counts), (ii) vehicle mix (e.g., passenger cars vs....

Qilu Expressway Co., Ltd. Class H Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability rebounded sharply in 2025 with much higher margins, but annual revenue fell ~56%, leverage increased to ~1.77x debt-to-equity, and free cash flow has been consistently negative from 2022–2025. Strong earnings power is offset by business volatility, higher balance-sheet risk, and weaker cash generation quality.

Income Statement

58Neutral

Balance Sheet

52Neutral

Cash Flow

34Negative
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.38B2.31B7.02B5.61B2.93B2.00B
Gross Profit788.12M797.98M740.59M811.98M1.16B1.32B
EBITDA1.41B1.40B867.52M1.07B1.37B1.60B
Net Income376.19M376.01M484.59M525.26M781.69M853.43M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets20.46B20.51B21.08B14.51B10.41B6.63B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments702.99M494.25M1.33B599.75M1.68B590.47M
Total Debt13.13B11.05B10.68B7.17B3.84B2.65B
Total Liabilities16.08B14.08B14.85B8.46B4.68B3.24B
Stockholders Equity4.20B6.25B6.08B5.92B5.61B3.39B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow309.29M-341.92M-3.81B-3.47B-761.91M1.21B
Operating Cash Flow2.22B1.41B853.80M964.30M730.48M1.35B
Investing Cash Flow-1.34B-1.27B-4.14B-4.30B-3.14B336.47M
Financing Cash Flow-597.96M-125.70M3.10B3.06B2.51B-1.17B

Qilu Expressway Co., Ltd. Class H Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price1.67

Price Trends

50DMA1.69Negative
100DMA1.66Positive
200DMA1.66Positive

Market Momentum

MACD-0.01Positive
RSI43.76Neutral
STOCH76.92Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:1576, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.67 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.68, below the 50-day MA of 1.69, and above the 200-day MA of 1.66, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.92 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:1576.

Qilu Expressway Co., Ltd. Class H Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

HK:1576 against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
HK:0995HK:099577OutperformHKD 34.68B15.8116.49%4.54%-17.37%6.37%
Sector *63Neutral$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
HK:0177HK:017762NeutralHKD 75.88B15.0310.81%5.00%7.60%4.14%
HK:1785HK:178562NeutralHKD 3.25B5.1110.80%7.12%1.69%15.41%
HK:0107HK:010760NeutralHKD 20.88B12.807.99%6.94%7.83%-2.71%
HK:1576HK:157660NeutralHKD 3.34B7.667.21%8.26%-52.79%-10.61%
HK:0548HK:054856NeutralHKD 22.85B17.675.07%4.23%-0.39%9.97%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

0%20%HK:1576HK:0995HK:0177HK:0107HK:0548HK:1785Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
HK:1576 and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
HK:1576Qilu Expressway Co., Ltd. Class H1.670.021.15%
HK:0995Anhui Expressway Company Class H16.714.3334.93%
HK:0177Jiangsu Expressway Co Class H11.192.0522.46%
HK:0107Sichuan Expressway Co Class H4.90-0.11-2.29%
HK:0548Shenzhen Expressway Co Class H6.63-0.41-5.87%
HK:1785Chengdu Expressway Co., Ltd. Class H1.960.084.14%

Qilu Expressway Co., Ltd. Class H Corporate Events

Qilu Expressway Posts Higher Revenue but Softer Profit on Toll Traffic Diversions

Jul 24, 2026

Qilu Expressway Company Limited, a PRC-incorporated toll-road operator listed in Hong Kong, generates the bulk of its turnover from toll income on expressways in Shandong. Its asset-heavy balance sheet and reliance on regional traffic patterns unders...

Qilu Expressway delays board re-election to maintain operational continuity

Jun 26, 2026

Qilu Expressway Company Limited, a PRC-based expressway operator listed in Hong Kong, manages toll road infrastructure through its group subsidiaries in Shandong and relies on a structured board and senior management system to oversee its operations....

Qilu Expressway shareholders approve 2025 results and RMB240m final dividend

Jun 26, 2026

Qilu Expressway Company Limited, a PRC-based expressway operator listed in Hong Kong, held its 2025 annual general meeting in Jinan with shareholders and proxies representing about 91.8% of voting shares. The meeting confirmed the company’s gov...

Qilu Expressway Updates Final Dividend and Tax Terms for H Shareholders

Jun 26, 2026

Qilu Expressway Company Limited has updated its final dividend for the year ended 31 December 2025, declaring a payout of RMB 0.12 per share, with H-shareholders to receive HKD 0.137981 per share based on a set exchange rate. The dividend, approved o...

Qilu Expressway Sets 2025 AGM to Approve Results, Dividends and 2026 Guarantees

Jun 4, 2026

Qilu Expressway Company Limited has called its 2025 annual general meeting for 26 June 2026 in Jinan, Shandong Province, where shareholders will review the board’s 2025 work report and the company’s annual report. The agenda also includes...

Qilu Expressway Sets Final 2025 Dividend and Payment Timetable

Jun 4, 2026

Qilu Expressway Company Limited has declared a final ordinary dividend of RMB 0.12 per share for the year ended 31 December 2025, subject to shareholder approval on 26 June 2026. The dividend will be paid on 25 August 2026, with the ex-dividend date...

Qilu Expressway Reshapes Top Governance as Shareholders Back New Chairman

May 21, 2026

Shareholders of Qilu Expressway Company Limited approved the appointment of Li Tianzhang as an executive director at an extraordinary general meeting held in Jinan on 21 May 2026, with about 91.78% of issued shares represented and the resolution pass...

Qilu Expressway Details Board Composition and Committee Roles

May 21, 2026

Qilu Expressway Company Limited has announced the current composition of its board of directors, detailing executive, non-executive and independent non-executive members, with Li Tianzhang serving as chairman and Gao Yongjun as vice chairman. The com...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 04, 2026