Horizon Bancorp (HBNC) Risk Analysis

The preparation of consolidated financial statements in conformity with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States requires management to make significant estimates that affect the financial statements. One of our most critical estimates is the level of the allowance for credit losses. Due to the inherent nature of these estimates, we cannot provide absolute assurance that we will not have to increase the allowance for loan losses and/or sustain loan losses that are significantly higher than the provided allowance.

Liquidity risk is the possibility of being unable to meet obligations as they come due, pay deposits when withdrawn, capitalized on growth opportunities as they arise, or pay dividends because of an inability to liquidate assets or obtain adequate funding on a timely basis, at a reasonable cost and within acceptable risk tolerances. Liquidity is derived primarily from retail deposit growth and retention, principal and interest payments on loans and investment securities, net cash provided from operations, and access to other funding sources. Liquidity is essential to our business. We must maintain sufficient funds to respond to the needs of depositors and borrowers. An inability to raise funds through deposits, borrowings, the sale or pledging as collateral of loans and other assets could have a material adverse effect on our liquidity. Our access to funding sources in amounts adequate to finance our activities could be impaired by factors that affect us specifically or the financial services industry in general. Factors that could detrimentally impact our access to liquidity sources include a decrease in the level of our business activity due to a market downturn, failures of other financial institutions which reduces overall market confidence in the banking and financial services industry, or regulatory action that limits or eliminates our access to alternate funding sources. Our ability to borrow could also be impaired by factors that are nonspecific to us, such as severe disruption of the financial markets or negative expectations about the prospects for the financial services industry as a whole, as evidenced by the recent failures of certain depository institutions and the resulting market turmoil and volatility stemming from such failures.

As market interest rates increased during 2022 and 2023, we have experienced increased unrealized losses within our investment portfolio. Our investment portfolio consists of obligations of the U.S. Treasury and federal agencies, obligations of state and local municipalities, U.S. government agency mortgage-backed securities, private labeled mortgage–backed pools and corporate notes. Many of these instruments are particularly sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, especially long–term fixed–income securities. The unrealized losses for available for sale investments is reflected in Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income ("AOCI") on our balance sheet and reduces our book capital and tangible common equity ratio. However, unrealized losses do not affect our regulatory capital ratios. Management continues to actively monitor the investment portfolio and does not currently anticipate the need to realize material losses from the investment portfolio, and we believe it is unlikely we would be required to sell the securities before recovery of their amortized cost bases, which may be at maturity. However, our access to liquidity sources could be affected by unrealized losses if securities within the investment portfolio must be sold at a loss or tangible capital ratios decline from an increase in unrealized losses or realized credit losses.

We may need to raise additional capital in the future to fund acquisitions and to provide us with sufficient capital resources and liquidity to meet our commitments, regulatory capital requirements and business needs, particularly if our asset quality or earnings were to deteriorate significantly. Although we are currently, and have historically been, "well capitalized" for regulatory purposes, in the past we have been required to maintain increased levels of capital in connection with certain acquisitions. Additionally, we periodically explore acquisition opportunities with other financial institutions, some of which are in distressed financial condition. Any future acquisition, particularly the acquisition of a significantly troubled institution or an institution of comparable size to us, may require us to raise additional capital in order to obtain regulatory approval and/or to remain well capitalized. Our ability to raise additional capital, if needed, will depend on, among other things, conditions in the capital markets at that time, which are outside of our control, and our financial performance. Economic conditions and the loss of confidence in financial institutions may increase our cost of funding and limit access to certain customary sources of capital, including inter–bank borrowings, repurchase agreements and borrowings from the discount window of the Federal Reserve. We cannot guarantee that such capital will be available on acceptable terms or at all. Any occurrence that may limit our access to the capital markets, such as a decline in the confidence of debt purchasers, our depositors or counterparties participating in the capital markets, may adversely affect our capital costs and our ability to raise capital and, in turn, our liquidity. Moreover, if we need to raise capital in the future, we may have to do so when many other financial institutions are also seeking to raise capital and would have to compete with those institutions for investors. An inability to raise additional capital on acceptable terms when needed could have a materially adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations and may restrict our ability to grow.

the risk that loan customers or other parties will be unable to perform their contractual obligations;

We have a large percentage of commercial, residential mortgage and consumer loans. At December 31, 2025 $3.43 billion or 70.4% of our loan portfolio consisted of commercial loans. Commercial loans generally have greater credit risk than residential mortgage and consumer loans because repayment of these loans often depends on the successful business operations of the borrowers. At December 31, 2025 $772.4 million or 15.8% of our loan portfolio consisted of commercial real estate loans. Commercial real estate loans generally have greater risk because repayment of these loans is often dependent upon income being generated in amounts sufficient to cover operating costs and debt service. Both types of commercial loans also typically have much larger loan balances than residential mortgage and consumer loans. At December 31, 2025 $671.7 million or 13.8% of our loan portfolio consisted of consumer loans. Consumer loans generally involve greater risk than residential mortgage loans because they are unsecured or secured by assets that depreciate in value. Although we undertake a variety of underwriting, monitoring and reserving protections with respect to these types of loans, there can be no guarantee that we will not suffer unexpected losses. Residential mortgage loans and consumer loans may present increase risk during periods of unemployment rates and increasing interest rates, which may adversely affect the underlying real estate and other collateral values and the ability of our borrowers to repay their loans on scheduled terms. At December 31, 2025, nonperforming commercial loans, commercial real estate loans, and consumer loans totaled $34,946 and 0.7%, respectively.

Construction loans, loans secured by commercial real estate and home equity loans generally entail more risk than other types of mortgage loans. When real estate values decrease, the developers to whom we lend are likely to become non–performing as developers are unable to build and sell homes in volumes large enough for orderly repayment of loans and as other owners of such real estate (including homeowners) are unable to keep up with their payments. We strive to establish what we believe are adequate reserves on our financial statements to cover the credit risk of these loan portfolios. However, there can be no assurance that losses will not exceed our reserves and ultimately result in a material level of charge–offs, which would adversely impact our results of operations, liquidity and capital.

Our business depends on the creditworthiness of our customers. We periodically review the allowance for credit losses for adequacy considering economic conditions and trends, collateral values, and credit quality indicators, including past charge–off experience and levels of past due loans and non–performing assets. There is no certainty that the allowance for credit losses will be adequate over time to cover credit losses in the portfolio because of unanticipated adverse changes in the economy, market conditions or events adversely affecting specific customers, industries or markets. If the credit quality of our customer base materially decreases, if the risk profile of a market, industry or group of customers changes materially, or if the allowance for credit losses is not adequate, our business, financial conditions, liquidity, capital, and results of operations could be materially adversely affected.

Our financial condition and results of operations are significantly affected by changes in interest rates. We can neither predict with certainty nor control changes in interest rates. These changes can occur at any time and are affected by many factors, including international, national, regional and local economic conditions, competitive and inflationary pressures and monetary policies of the Federal Reserve. Our results of operations depend substantially on our net interest income, which is the difference between the interest income that we earn on our interest earning assets and the interest expense that we pay on our interest bearing liabilities. Our profitability depends on our ability to manage our assets and liabilities during periods of changing interest rates. For example, as interest rates decline, the amount of interest-earning assets expected to reprice will increase as borrowers have an economic incentive to reduce the cost of their mortgage or debt, which would negatively impact our interest income. Alternatively, as rates increase, we may have to increase the rates paid on our deposits and borrowed funds more quickly than loans and investments re–price, resulting in a negative impact on interest spreads and net interest income. The impact of rising rates could be compounded if deposit customers funds away from us into direct investments, such as U.S. Government bonds, corporate securities and other investments, including mutual funds, which, because of the absence of federal deposit insurance premiums and reserve requirements, generally pay higher rates of return than those offered by financial institutions. We also expect that we will periodically experience "gaps" in the interest rate sensitivities of our assets and liabilities, meaning that either our interest bearing liabilities will be more sensitive to changes in market interest rates than our interest earning assets, or vice versa. In either event, if market interest rates should move contrary to our position, this "gap" will negatively impact our earnings. The impact on earnings is more adverse when the slope of the yield curve flattens, that is, when short–term interest rates increase more than long–term interest rates or when long–term interest rates decrease more than short–term interest rates. Changes in interest rates also could affect loan volume. For instance, an increase in interest rates could cause a decrease in the demand for mortgage loans (and other loans), which could result in a significant decline in our revenues. In addition, as market interest rates rise, the value of the Company's investment securities, particularly those that have fixed rates or longer maturities, could decrease. Increasing rates would also increase debt service requirements for some of the Bank's borrowers and may adversely affect those borrowers' ability to pay as contractually obligated and could result in additional delinquencies or charge–offs. Conversely, should market interest rates fall below current levels, our net interest margin could also be negatively affected, as competitive pressures could keep us from further reducing rates on our deposits, and prepayments on loans may continue. Such movements may cause a decrease in our interest rate spread and net interest margin, and therefore, decrease our profitability. We also are subject to reinvestment risk associated with changes in interest rates. Changes in interest rates may affect the average life of loans and mortgage–related securities. Increases in interest rates may decrease loan demand and/or may make it more difficult for borrowers to repay adjustable rate loans, which increases the potential for default. An increase in interest rates that adversely affects the ability of borrowers to pay the principal or interest on may also lead to an increase in non–performing assets and a reduction of income recognized, which could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and cash flows. Further, when we place a loan on non–accrual status, we reverse any accrued but unpaid interest receivable, which decreases interest income. At the same time, we continue to have a cost to fund the loan, which is reflected as interest expense, without any interest income to offset the associated funding expense. Decreases in interest rates often result in increased prepayments of loans and mortgage–related securities, as borrowers refinance their loans to reduce borrowing costs. Under these circumstances, we are subject to reinvestment risk to the extent that we are unable to reinvest the cash received from such prepayments in loans or other investments that have interest rates that are comparable to the interest rates on existing loans and securities.

We no longer originate auto loans through automobile dealers, but a small amount dealer-originated auto loans remain on our books. Because we relied on automobile dealers in making and documenting these loans, there is an increased risk of fraud to us on the part of the third–party originators and the underlying borrowers. In order to guard against this increased risk, we performed investigations on third parties who originated loans we purchase, and we reviewed the loan files and loan documents we purchased to attempt to detect any irregularities or legal noncompliance. However, there is no guarantee that our procedures detected all cases of fraud or legal noncompliance. Due to the development of new technologies and regulatory actions encouraging the use of these technologies, consumers may decide not to use banks to complete their financial transactions. Technology and other changes are allowing parties to complete financial transactions through alternative methods that historically have involved banks. For example, consumers can now maintain funds that would have historically been held as bank deposits in brokerage accounts, mutual funds, or general-purpose reloadable prepaid cards. Consumers can complete transactions, such as paying bills and/or transferring funds directly without the assistance of banks. Transactions utilizing digital assets, including cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, and other similar assets, have increased substantially over the course of the last several years. For example, the enactment of the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act of 2025 (GENIUS Act) provides a legal framework for stablecoins to be issued in the United States, which may allow new and existing competitors to compete for funds that may have otherwise been deposited with banks, such as Horizon Bank. Certain characteristics of digital asset transactions, such as the speed with which such transactions can be conducted, the ability to transact without the involvement of regulated intermediaries, the ability to engage in transactions across multiple jurisdictions, and the anonymous nature of the transactions, are appealing to certain consumers notwithstanding the various risks posed by such transactions as illustrated by the current and ongoing market volatility. Accordingly, digital asset service providers, which at present are not subject to supervision and regulation comparable to that which is faced by banking organizations and other financial institutions, have become active competitors for our customers' banking business. The Trump Administration, through executive actions and public announcements, has established a more relaxed regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, digital assets, and financial technology firms, and created a more favorable environment for those asset classes and firms. The process of eliminating banks as intermediaries, known as disintermediation, could result in the loss of fee income, as well as the loss of customer deposits and the related income generated from those deposits. On October 22, 2024, the CFPB adopted a final rule regarding personal financial data rights that is designed to promote "open banking." The final rule requires, among other things, that data providers, including any financial institution, make available to consumers and certain authorized third parties upon request certain covered transaction, account, and payment information. However, in August 2025, the CFPB issued an advanced notice of proposed rulemaking to reconsider its final rule and, in October 2025, a district court issued a preliminary injunction preventing the CFPB from enforcing the final rule until the CFPB has completed its reconsideration of the rule. A final rule, if implemented, could lead to greater competition for products and services among banks and nonbanks alike. The loss of these revenue streams and the lower cost of deposits as a source of funds could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations. The adoption of artificial intelligence tools by us and our third-party vendors and service providers may increase the risk of errors, omissions, unfair treatment, or fraudulent behavior by our employees, clients, or counterparties, or other third parties. Our adoption of artificial intelligence, including generative artificial intelligence, machine learning, and similar tools and technologies that collect, aggregate, analyze, or generate data or other materials or content (collectively, "AI"), is limited for internal currently, and we expect to continue to adopt such tools as appropriate. In addition, we expect our third-party vendors and service providers to increasingly develop and incorporate AI into their product offerings. There are significant risks involved in utilizing AI and no assurance can be provided that our or our third-party vendors' or service providers' use of AI will enhance our or our third-party vendors' or service providers' products or services or produce the intended results. The adoption and incorporation of such tools can lead to concerns around safety and soundness, fair access to financial services, fair treatment of consumers, and compliance with applicable laws and regulations. Such risk can result from models being poorly designed or faulty data being used, inadequate model testing or validation, narrow or limited human oversight, inadequate planning or due diligence, inappropriate or controversial data practices by developers or end-users, and other factors adversely affecting public opinion of AI and the acceptance of AI solutions. Furthermore, given the pace of rapid adoption of such tools by vendors and service providers, we may not be aware of the addition of AI solutions prior to such tools being introduced into our environment. Failure to adequately manage AI risks can result in erroneous results and decisions made by misinformation, unwanted forms of bias, unauthorized access to sensitive, confidential, proprietary, or personal information, and violations of applicable laws and regulations, leading to operational inefficiencies, competitive harm, reputational harm, ethical challenges, legal liability, losses, fines, and other adverse impacts on our business and financial results.