Guild Holdings (GHLD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.24B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 29.31K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 51.1
• Beta (1Y): -0.04
• Revenue Growth: 34.62%
• EPS Growth: -7.94%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,270
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Mortgages
• EPS (TTM): 0.66
• Shares Outstanding: 21,920,360
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 25,588
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 29,311
• PEG Ratio: -0.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.69
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.74
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.30
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.58
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.07
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.51
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 47.39
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

• Rating: 46 Neutral
• Price Target: $19.50 ▼(-1.91% Downside)

The overall stock score of 46 reflects significant financial challenges, including high leverage and liquidity issues, combined with a high P/E ratio indicating potential overvaluation. Technical indicators suggest a lack of strong momentum, contributing to a cautious outlook.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Guild Holdings has demonstrated strong revenue growth, indicating successful market expansion and product adoption, which is crucial for long-term business sustainability.

Free Cash Flow Improvement

Significant improvement in free cash flow suggests enhanced operational efficiency and better cash management, supporting future investments and financial stability.

Market Position

Guild's strong market position in the U.S. mortgage sector provides a competitive edge, enabling it to leverage its customer-centric approach and technology to capture market share.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage increases financial risk and could limit the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities, potentially impacting long-term financial health.

Declining Profit Margins

Decreasing profit margins indicate cost pressures or pricing challenges, which can hinder profitability and affect the company's ability to sustain its business model.

Negative Operating Cash Flow

Negative operating cash flow suggests liquidity issues, which could constrain the company's ability to meet its short-term obligations and invest in growth initiatives.

Guild Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Guild Holdings Company, a mortgage company, originates, sells, and services residential mortgage loans in the United States. The company operates approximately 260 branches with licenses in 49 states. It originates residential mortgages through retail and correspondent channels. The company was incorporated in 1960 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Guild Holdings generates revenue primarily through the origination and sale of mortgage loans. The company earns money by charging origination fees, underwriting fees, and interest on the loans it provides. Additionally, Guild generates income from servicing loans, which includes collecting monthly payments and managing escrow accounts for property taxes and homeowners insurance. The sale of mortgage-backed securities also contributes to their revenue, as Guild bundles and sells loans to investors. Partnerships with various financial institutions and real estate networks further enhance their market reach and revenue opportunities, allowing Guild to tap into a larger customer base and optimize its operational efficiency.

Guild Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Guild Holdings exhibits mixed financial performance. Modest revenue growth is overshadowed by declining profitability margins, high leverage, and liquidity challenges. Despite improvements in free cash flow, the company's financial stability is at risk due to high debt levels and negative operating cash flow.

Income Statement

Guild Holdings shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM data reveals a modest revenue growth rate of 3.26%, indicating a slight recovery from previous declines. However, the gross profit margin has decreased significantly from 90.65% in 2024 to 73.91% in TTM, suggesting increased costs or pricing pressures. The net profit margin also dropped to 2.37% in TTM from 8.27% in 2024, reflecting reduced profitability. While EBIT and EBITDA margins have also declined, they remain positive, indicating operational efficiency. Overall, the company faces challenges in maintaining high profitability levels.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Guild Holdings indicates a high leverage position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.72 in TTM, up from 2.42 in 2024, which could pose financial risks. The return on equity has decreased to 2.14% in TTM from 7.75% in 2024, reflecting lower profitability on shareholders' investments. The equity ratio stands at 24.19%, indicating a moderate level of equity financing. While the company has a strong asset base, the increasing debt levels and declining ROE suggest potential financial stability concerns.

Cash Flow

Guild Holdings' cash flow statement reveals significant challenges. The operating cash flow is negative at -$648.68 million in TTM, and free cash flow is also negative, although it shows a notable improvement with a 74.09% growth rate. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow issues relative to reported earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly above 1, suggesting that free cash flow is in line with net income. Despite improvements in free cash flow, the overall negative cash flow position raises concerns about liquidity and operational sustainability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.09B	1.17B	721.55M	1.16B	1.56B	1.56B
Gross Profit	805.59M	1.06B	721.55M	473.93M	1.53B	1.68B
EBITDA	93.69M	156.84M	59.49M	840.77M	486.15M	619.94M
Net Income	25.81M	97.13M	-39.01M	328.60M	283.77M	370.58M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.03B	4.77B	3.68B	3.24B	4.38B	4.82B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	107.36M	118.20M	136.82M	137.89M	243.11M	334.62M
Total Debt	3.32B	3.03B	2.06B	1.58B	3.01B	2.39B
Total Liabilities	3.82B	3.51B	2.49B	1.99B	3.46B	4.08B
Stockholders Equity	1.22B	1.25B	1.18B	1.25B	919.98M	735.99M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-659.26M	-668.99M	-97.23M	1.26B	675.85M	-476.27M
Operating Cash Flow	-648.68M	-659.62M	-91.72M	1.26B	680.46M	-468.04M
Investing Cash Flow	469.05M	-152.39M	-136.60M	-7.18M	-104.66M	-18.02M
Financing Cash Flow	186.26M	809.69M	208.95M	-1.35B	-667.31M	718.96M

Guild Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 19.88
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GHLD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.88 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.88, below the 50-day MA of 19.91, and above the 200-day MA of 16.21, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GHLD.

Guild Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PFSI	―	$6.59B	13.66	12.55%	0.99%	25.42%	190.85%
VEL	―	$715.73M	8.52	15.02%	―	35.12%	25.28%
Sector *	―	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
WD	―	$2.72B	24.65	6.26%	3.33%	11.18%	24.94%
LDI	―	$999.40M	―	-23.67%	―	6.60%	44.77%
RKT	―	$46.88B	209.82	-2.15%	―	22.56%	―
GHLD	―	$1.24B	51.08	2.12%	―	34.62%	-7.94%

Guild Holdings Corporate Events

Guild Holdings Co. Faces Operational Challenges Amid Merger Uncertainties

The pending merger poses significant risks to Guild Holdings Co., as business uncertainties and contractual restrictions in the Merger Agreement may hinder its ability to capitalize on beneficial opportunities. The company may face challenges in retaining and motivating key personnel, potentially leading to distractions from its strategic objectives and daily operations. These limitations could adversely impact the company’s business and operational effectiveness during the merger process. The necessity for prior written consent from the Parent for certain actions further complicates the company’s ability to navigate this transitional period effectively.

Guild Holdings Reports Strong Q2 2025 Performance

Guild Holdings Company, a prominent player in the mortgage industry, is known for its relationship-based loan sourcing strategy aimed at facilitating homeownership across the United States. In its latest earnings report for the second quarter of 2025, Guild Holdings showcased robust financial performance despite challenging market conditions. The company reported total originations of $7.5 billion, a significant increase from the previous quarter, and a net revenue of $279.4 million. Notably, 89% of the loan volume was attributed to purchase originations, highlighting the company’s strong foothold in the purchase market.

Guild Holdings Declares Special Cash Dividend

Guild Holdings Company reported strong financial results for the second quarter of 2025, with total originations reaching $7.5 billion, a significant increase from previous quarters. The company achieved a net income of $18.7 million and an adjusted net income of $41.4 million, highlighting the success of its strategic focus on growth and efficiency. The board of directors also declared a special cash dividend of $0.25 per share, payable on September 2, 2025, indicating confidence in the company’s financial health and commitment to returning value to shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GHLD) stock is a Hold with a $12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guild Holdings stock, see the GHLD Stock Forecast page.