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Trafalgar New Homes (TRAF) AI Stock Analysis

GB:TRAF

Trafalgar New Homes

(LSE:TRAF)

Select Model
Rating:37Underperform
Price Target:GBX 11.00â–²(10.00% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:10/31/26

The stock scores the minimum possible value due to a complete financial breakdown. The company is insolvent, has no meaningful revenue, and is burning cash. This is compounded by a catastrophic technical profile and a negative P/E ratio, indicating a near-certain probability of total loss for shareholders.

Positive Factors
Revenue RecoveryThe return to approximately 715k of revenue shows that the company has regained some level of commercial activity after near-zero sales in 2024–2025. If this recovery continues, it could provide a foundation for rebuilding scale, improving operating leverage, and supporting a more sustainable development platform.
Negative Factors
Persistent UnprofitabilityRecurring losses across six annual periods indicate that the business has not yet demonstrated a sustainable profit model. The 2026 revenue rebound did not translate into positive gross profit or operating earnings, leaving profitability dependent on a material improvement in execution, scale, or project economics.

Trafalgar New Homes (TRAF) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%GB:TRAF-34.29%EWC+23.59%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
GBP 4.72M
Dividend Yield
―
Average Volume (3M)
8,128
Price to Earnings (P/E)
-0.5
Beta (1Y)
-0.51
Revenue Growth
―
EPS Growth
―
Country
UK
Employees
5
Sector
Real Estate
Sector Strength
65
Industry
Real Estate - Development

Trafalgar New Homes Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Trafalgar Property Group plc, through its subsidiaries, engages in residual property development business in the United Kingdom. The company undertakes residential property and assisted living projects. It also engages in renting of residential prope...

Trafalgar New Homes Financial Statement Overview

Summary

The company is in a state of financial collapse. It is insolvent with deeply negative equity, generates virtually no revenue, and suffers from chronic, deep losses. The business model has failed, presenting a worst-case scenario across all financial statements.

Income Statement

8Very Negative

Balance Sheet

1Very Negative

Cash Flow

5Very Negative
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMSep 2025Mar 2024Sep 2023Mar 2023Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue715.00K715.00K600018.18K64.84K
Gross Profit-28.12K-28.07K-131.48K-213-12.72K61.68K
EBITDA-349.28K-349.23K-379.73K-387.17K-719.49K-314.25K
Net Income-389.35K-389.35K-400.27K-516.72K-843.63K-486.34K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.85M1.85M1.40M864.50K1.32M1.79M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments65.28K65.28K27.43K8,90617.15K12.75K
Total Debt4.55M4.55M4.19M3.42M4.45M4.69M
Total Liabilities5.21M5.21M4.54M3.70M4.67M5.06M
Stockholders Equity-3.37M-3.37M-3.14M-2.84M-3.35M-3.27M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-364.82K-364.82K-858.09K-909.75K-642.97K-352.84K
Operating Cash Flow-364.82K-364.82K-858.09K-909.75K-617.97K-352.84K
Investing Cash Flow000927.25K624.62K352.50K
Financing Cash Flow402.67K402.67K876.61K-25.74K-2,257-233.10K

Trafalgar New Homes Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price10.00

Price Trends

50DMA18.80Negative
100DMA20.65Negative
200DMA22.23Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-1.14Positive
RSI2.15Positive
STOCH2.78Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:TRAF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.00 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.25, below the 50-day MA of 18.80, and below the 200-day MA of 22.23, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 2.15 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 2.78 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:TRAF.

Trafalgar New Homes Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

GB:TRAF against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
Sector *65Neutral$2.17B12.193.79%4.94%3.15%1.96%
GB:SPDIGB:SPDI38UnderperformGBP 516.77K-0.14-580.57%―-95.12%-268.35%
GB:TRAFGB:TRAF37UnderperformGBP 4.77M-0.4611.98%―――
GB:ALNAGB:ALNA26UnderperformGBP 2.21M-2.06-34.67%―-17.62%-0.48%

* Real Estate Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-50%0%50%GB:TRAFGB:ALNAGB:SPDIGB:ZNTDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
GB:TRAF and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
GB:TRAFTrafalgar New Homes11.50-6.00-34.29%
GB:ALNAAlina Holdings PLC9.75-0.75-7.14%
GB:SPDISECURE PROPERTY Development & Investment0.40-1.35-77.14%
GB:ZNTOne Heritage Group Plc2.00-0.75-27.27%

Trafalgar New Homes Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Trafalgar Minerals Signals Strategic Pivot After Legacy-Year Results

Positive
Sep 28, 2026

Trafalgar Minerals PLC has reported its final results for the year ended 31 March 2026, noting that the figures reflect the performance of its legacy business before a major strategic overhaul. Following a restructuring and rebranding, the group is n...

Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance

Trafalgar Minerals Converts Remaining Loan Notes Into Equity

Positive
Aug 21, 2026

Trafalgar Minerals has converted the remaining outstanding convertible loan notes held by Wager Holdings into equity, issuing 444,440 new ordinary shares at £0.10 each to satisfy £44,444 of principal. The new shares will rank pari passu wit...

Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing Changes

Trafalgar Completes Name Change as It Repositions Toward Minerals

Positive
Aug 5, 2026

Trafalgar Minerals PLC has formally completed its corporate rebranding from Trafalgar Property Group PLC after receiving a certificate of incorporation confirming the new name. The company’s shares will begin trading under the Trafalgar Mineral...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 31, 2026