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Investec PLC (GB:INVP)
LSE:INVP

Investec (INVP) AI Stock Analysis

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GB

Investec

(LSE:INVP)

Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
Investec's overall score reflects a mixed financial performance with strong profitability but declining revenue and liquidity challenges. Technical analysis signals a bearish trend, while valuation indicates potential undervaluation. Recent earnings call data is positive, highlighting robust business growth and improved shareholder returns, despite some cost pressures.

Investec (INVP) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Investec Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionInvestec Group provides various financial products and services in the United Kingdom South Africa, and internationally. The company offers wealth and investment products and services, including portfolio management, discretionary wealth management, financial planning, stockbroking/execution, pensions and retirement, and investment advisory services for private clients, charities, pension funds and trusts. It also provides specialist banking products and services comprising private banking products, such as lending, savings, foreign exchange, private capital, and transactional banking services; corporate and investment banking products, including lending, advisory, hedging, cash deposits and savings, and equity placement services to government, institutions, corporates, and intermediaries. Investec Group was founded in 1974 and is based in Sandton, South Africa.
How the Company Makes MoneyInvestec generates revenue primarily through its Specialist Banking and Wealth & Investment divisions. The Specialist Banking division earns money from lending activities, including interest income from loans and advances to clients, as well as fees and commissions from transactional banking, treasury, and trading services. The Wealth & Investment division generates revenue through management fees charged on assets under management, financial planning services, and performance-related fees. Additionally, Investec benefits from strategic partnerships and collaborations that enhance its service offerings and expand its client base. The company's profitability is also influenced by market conditions, regulatory environments, and economic factors in its operating regions.

Investec Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 22, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: 7.81%|
Next Earnings Date:Nov 20, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a generally positive outlook with strong financial performance, strategic growth initiatives, and a commitment to sustainability. However, there were challenges such as muted growth in the first half and a lackluster macroeconomic environment.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Pre-Provision Operating Profit
Pre-provision operating profit increased by 8% to over GBP 1 billion for the first time in our history, demonstrating the strength of our client franchises.
Revenue Growth and Cost Management
Revenue grew ahead of costs, improving the cost-to-income ratio from 53.8% to 52.6%.
Growth in Loan and Deposit Books
Significant pickup in activity and growth in loan books and deposit books in the second half of the year.
Strong Wealth and Investment Business
The Wealth and Investment business showed strong net inflows, contributing to the ability to declare a final dividend of 20p, bringing the full-year dividend to 36.5p.
Strategic Growth Initiatives
Announced significant growth initiatives backed by capital, expected to generate an additional 200 basis points in returns by 2030.
Focus on Sustainability and Climate Action
Met commitments to reduce exposure to fossil fuels and announced a 2030 target of GBP 18 billion for transition and sustainable finance.
Negative Updates
Muted Loan Book Growth in First Half
The first half of the year experienced muted activity and loan book growth due to election-related uncertainties in South Africa and the U.K.
Lackluster Macroeconomic Environment
Faced a lackluster growth environment in South Africa and the U.K., with volatility and policy changes affecting performance.
Higher ECL Year-on-Year
Credit loss ratio increased to 38 basis points due to lower recoveries compared to the previous year.
Company Guidance
In the recent call, guidance was provided with several key metrics outlined. The company reported an 8% increase in pre-provision operating profit, surpassing GBP 1 billion for the first time. An increase of 200 basis points in underlying performance was noted in both ROE and RoTE since the 2019 strategy announcement. Looking forward, the company expects to generate an additional 200 basis points in returns by 2030, targeting over 16% ROE and approximately 18% RoTE. Adjusted EPS grew from 55.1p to 79.1p over the last three years. The full-year dividend declared was 36.5p, and a buyback of around ZAR 2.5 billion (approximately GBP 100 million) was announced. Cost-to-income ratio improved from 53.8% to 52.6%. The credit loss ratio stood at the midpoint of the 25 to 45 basis points range. The company also set a 2030 target for transition and sustainable finance at GBP 18 billion. Looking to FY 2026, the company anticipates an ROE of around 14%, RoTE of 16%, cost-to-income ratio of 52%-54%, and a credit loss ratio within the 25%-45% range.

Investec Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Investec's financial performance is mixed. Strong profitability metrics are offset by a decline in revenue and concerning cash flow metrics, with negative operating and free cash flows indicating potential liquidity issues.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Investec shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The gross profit margin is strong at approximately 253% for 2024, indicating efficient cost management. However, the total revenue has decreased by 15.1% compared to the previous year, reflecting challenges in revenue generation. Net profit margin improved to 49.2% in 2024 from 35.8% in 2023, showing enhanced profitability. The EBIT margin is also robust at 98.2%, reflecting effective operational management.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 1.41 in 2024, indicating moderate leverage. Stockholders' equity increased by 12.1% from 2023 to 2024, enhancing the equity base. However, the equity ratio is relatively low at 9.7%, suggesting high reliance on liabilities. Return on equity improved to 17.2% in 2024, demonstrating better profitability on equity capital.
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
Cash flow analysis reveals challenges, with negative operating cash flow and free cash flow in 2024. Free cash flow growth rate is negative, indicating potential liquidity issues. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting difficulties in converting profits to cash flow.
Breakdown
TTMMar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021Mar 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.48B1.91B2.25B1.91B1.60B1.78B
Gross Profit
3.44B4.84B2.25B1.91B1.60B1.78B
EBIT
1.48B1.88B910.95M592.88M282.74M180.76M
EBITDA
800.33M804.33M900.84M690.59M361.62M52.82M
Net Income Common Stockholders
650.23M941.04M804.87M516.20M268.34M1.14B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
4.09B7.70B8.47B9.13B6.52B7.09B
Total Assets
53.53B56.63B57.29B58.84B51.53B50.66B
Total Debt
3.79B7.73B2.89B3.36B3.37B3.17B
Net Debt
-304.00M-6.97B-4.19B-3.32B-583.67M-1.39B
Total Liabilities
48.73B51.15B2.76B53.10B46.20B45.76B
Stockholders Equity
4.16B5.47B4.88B5.20B4.76B4.33B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-545.91M-1.69B-2.25B-2.13B-219.27M549.68M
Operating Cash Flow
-545.91M-1.67B-2.22B-2.12B-205.94M588.53M
Investing Cash Flow
1.70M-209.37M-13.99M35.56M1.41M-350.86M
Financing Cash Flow
-246.85M1.43B1.73B4.61B-548.41M-616.74M

Investec Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price530.00
Price Trends
50DMA
477.41
Positive
100DMA
500.61
Positive
200DMA
532.72
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
13.00
Negative
RSI
69.77
Neutral
STOCH
90.70
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:INVP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 530 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 493.69, above the 50-day MA of 477.41, and below the 200-day MA of 532.72, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 13.00 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.70 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:INVP.

Investec Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
82
Outperform
£1.30B14.2537.13%0.61%18.79%4.95%
79
Outperform
£2.45B12.1640.24%5.11%2.95%9.84%
GBIGG
77
Outperform
£3.90B11.4619.85%4.16%6.34%30.64%
77
Outperform
£1.90B11.798.13%6.16%2.63%132.46%
76
Outperform
£787.09M9.2521.94%3.69%44.51%739.67%
64
Neutral
$12.75B9.767.55%17015.07%12.29%-7.03%
62
Neutral
£9.14B7.0412.42%6.84%-3.32%-31.32%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:INVP
Investec
530.00
44.68
9.21%
GB:ALPH
Alpha FX
3,055.00
791.60
34.97%
GB:CMCX
CMC Markets
281.00
6.19
2.25%
GB:IGG
IG Group Holdings
1,120.00
367.12
48.76%
GB:PLUS
Plus500
3,394.00
1,338.55
65.12%
GB:TCAP
TP ICap
260.00
59.76
29.84%

Investec Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Investec Discloses Share Acquisitions for Incentive Plan
Neutral
Mar 31, 2025

Investec has disclosed details of indirect beneficial on-market acquisitions of its ordinary shares to fulfill obligations under the Investec Limited Share Incentive Plan 2021. The transactions involved acquiring a total of 388,856 shares over two days, with a combined value of approximately ZAR 45.4 million. This move reflects Investec’s ongoing commitment to its share incentive plan, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Investec Announces Managerial Share Transactions
Neutral
Mar 28, 2025

Investec has announced transactions involving the sale of ordinary shares by a person discharging managerial responsibilities, Lyndon Subroyen, in both Investec plc and Investec Limited. The transactions were conducted on the London and Johannesburg stock exchanges, with a total value of GBP165,002.64 and ZAR508,742.94 respectively. These transactions are part of the company’s dual-listed structure and are disclosed in compliance with relevant market regulations, reflecting Investec’s commitment to transparency and regulatory adherence.

Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Investec Discloses PDMR Share Transactions in Compliance with Regulatory Standards
Neutral
Mar 27, 2025

Investec, a dual-listed company operating in both South Africa and the UK, has disclosed transactions involving its directors and persons discharging managerial responsibilities (PDMRs) in compliance with regulatory requirements. The transactions involved the sale of ordinary shares by several PDMRs, including Mark Currie, Lesley Anne Gatter, Joubert Hay, and the company secretary David Miller, following the release of forfeitable shares. These transactions were conducted on the Johannesburg and London markets, reflecting Investec’s adherence to transparency and regulatory compliance, potentially impacting stakeholder perceptions and market positioning.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Investec Discloses Key Share Transactions in Compliance with Market Regulations
Neutral
Mar 26, 2025

Investec has announced transactions involving its ordinary shares, notifying both the London and Johannesburg Stock Exchanges. These transactions include on-market sales and off-market take-ups by persons discharging managerial responsibilities (PDMRs) and other associated persons. The transactions are part of compliance with regulatory requirements, ensuring transparency and adherence to market rules. The disclosure of these transactions highlights Investec’s commitment to regulatory compliance and provides insights into the trading activities of its key personnel.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Investec Announces Share Transaction by Managerial Personnel
Neutral
Mar 25, 2025

Investec has announced a transaction involving the sale of ordinary shares by a person discharging managerial responsibilities, Marle van der Walt, in compliance with regulatory requirements. The transaction involved the sale of 12,926 shares at a price of ZAR116.04 each, amounting to a total value of ZAR1,499,993.79, and was conducted on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Investec Group Reports Strong Performance Amid Challenging Environment
Positive
Mar 20, 2025

Investec Group has released its pre-close trading update for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, highlighting a challenging yet progressive year. The Group expects a pre-provision adjusted operating profit increase of up to 12% compared to the previous year, driven by strategic client acquisition and strong balance sheet management. Despite a challenging operating environment, revenue growth was supported by diversified business operations and strong client franchises. The Group’s cost-to-income ratio is expected to improve, and credit loss ratios are anticipated to remain within acceptable ranges, reflecting strong credit quality. The Southern African business is projected to outperform the prior year, while the UK business shows mixed results due to specific impairments. Overall, Investec maintains robust capital and liquidity levels, positioning it well to support clients and execute strategic priorities.

Business Operations and Strategy
Investec Acquires Shares for Incentive Plan
Neutral
Mar 11, 2025

Investec has announced the acquisition of 400,000 ordinary shares to fulfill obligations under its Share Incentive Plan 2021. These transactions, conducted on 7 and 10 March 2025, were made at prices of ZAR118.6209 and ZAR117.1708 per share, respectively, with a total value of over ZAR47 million. This move reflects Investec’s commitment to its incentive plan participants and could have implications for its market positioning and shareholder value.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Investec Discloses Share Acquisitions for Incentive Plan Compliance
Neutral
Mar 4, 2025

Investec has disclosed details of indirect beneficial on-market acquisitions of its ordinary shares to satisfy obligations under the Investec Limited Share Incentive Plan 2021. The transactions involved acquiring a total of 521,140 shares over three days, with a combined value of approximately ZAR63 million. These acquisitions are part of regulatory compliance with the JSE Listings Requirements and demonstrate Investec’s commitment to fulfilling its share incentive plan obligations.

Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Investec Reports Strong Capital and Liquidity Metrics in Latest Disclosure
Positive
Feb 28, 2025

Investec has released its Pillar III quarterly disclosures as of December 31, 2024, highlighting its capital adequacy and leverage ratios. The company reports strong capital and leverage metrics across its groups, with a Common Equity Tier 1 ratio of 12.3% for Investec plc and 14.8% for Investec Limited. The liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) and net stable funding ratio (NSFR) are also robust, indicating the company’s resilience in liquidity risk management. These disclosures underscore Investec’s commitment to maintaining financial stability and regulatory compliance, which is crucial for its stakeholders.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Investec Discloses Share Acquisitions for Incentive Plan
Neutral
Feb 27, 2025

Investec has disclosed details of indirect beneficial on-market acquisitions of its ordinary shares as part of its Share Incentive Plan 2021. The transactions, conducted over three days in February 2025, involved the acquisition of a total of 357,657 shares valued at approximately ZAR 44.3 million. These acquisitions are intended to fulfill the Plan’s obligations to its participants, reflecting Investec’s ongoing commitment to shareholder engagement and regulatory compliance.

Other
Investec Announces Change in Major Shareholder Holdings
Neutral
Feb 24, 2025

Investec has announced a change in its major holdings, with the Public Investment Corporation SOC Limited reducing its voting rights from 15.074% to 14.922%. This adjustment reflects a slight decrease in the corporation’s influence within Investec, potentially impacting shareholder dynamics and voting outcomes.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Investec Discloses Share Acquisitions Under Incentive Plan
Neutral
Feb 24, 2025

Investec has disclosed details of indirect beneficial on-market acquisitions of its ordinary shares as part of the Investec Limited Share Incentive Plan 2021. The transactions, which occurred between February 19 and February 21, 2025, involved the acquisition of a total of 433,569 shares at varying prices, with a total value exceeding ZAR54 million. These acquisitions are in compliance with the JSE Listings Requirements, and prior clearance to deal in these shares was obtained.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Investec Publishes Final Terms for EUR500 Million Note Issuance
Positive
Feb 17, 2025

Investec has announced the publication of the Final Terms related to its issuance of EUR500 million fixed-rate resettable senior notes due in 2031 under its Euro Medium Term Note Programme. These notes have been admitted to the Official List of the Financial Conduct Authority and will begin trading on the London Stock Exchange’s main market on February 19, 2025. This issuance marks a significant step in Investec’s strategy to secure long-term financing and enhance its market positioning in the financial services sector.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Investec Discloses Share Acquisitions Under 2021 Incentive Plan
Neutral
Feb 14, 2025

Investec has disclosed recent transactions under its 2021 Share Incentive Plan, involving the acquisition of 600,000 ordinary shares of Investec Limited over three days in February 2025. The total value of the shares acquired amounts to over ZAR74 million. This move is part of a compliance measure with the JSE Listings Requirements and is aimed at meeting the Plan’s obligations to its participants, showcasing Investec’s ongoing commitment to transparency and regulatory adherence.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Investec Announces Share Acquisitions for Incentive Plan
Positive
Feb 11, 2025

Investec has announced recent dealings in securities related to its Investec Limited Share Incentive Plan 2021. Over a series of transactions in February 2025, the company acquired a total of 600,000 ordinary shares to fulfill the Plan’s obligations, with a combined transaction value of approximately ZAR72 million. This move highlights Investec’s ongoing commitment to incentivize its stakeholders, potentially impacting its market position by aligning with shareholder interests.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.