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Harworth (HWG) AI Stock Analysis

GB:HWG

Harworth

(LSE:HWG)

Select Model
Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:GBX 216.00â–²(16.13% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:09/12/26

The score is held back primarily by weaker and less predictable financial performance, especially the sharp deterioration in 2025 cash flow and operating profitability. Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend and positive momentum indicators, and the earnings call tone was constructive around the industrial/logistics and powered land strategy, but valuation is a notable headwind given the high P/E and modest yield.

Positive Factors
Industrial and Powered-Land PipelineA large construction-ready pipeline gives Harworth multiple routes to convert planning and infrastructure progress into land sales, development profits or retained assets. The industrial, logistics and powered-land focus also aligns capital with segments management identifies as higher-returning and strategically attractive.
Negative Factors
Weakening Revenue and Operating ProfitabilityThe sharp revenue decline and negative operating result show that reported earnings are not consistently supported by core operations. Because development income depends on project timing, this volatility can make performance less predictable and reduce the visibility needed for sustained reinvestment and returns.

Harworth (HWG) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%GB:HWG+15.49%EWC+21.27%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
GBP 604.21M
Dividend Yield
0.98%
Average Volume (3M)
3.63M
Price to Earnings (P/E)
-23.5
Beta (1Y)
0.68
Revenue Growth
-34.57%
EPS Growth
-148.98%
Country
UK
Employees
146
Sector
Real Estate
Sector Strength
65
Industry
Real Estate - Development

Harworth Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Harworth Group plc specializes in land and property revitalization, with its operations concentrated across the North of England and the Midlands. The company's business model is structured around two main divisions: Income Generation and Capital Gro...

How the Company Makes Money

Harworth makes money primarily by creating value from land through a regeneration-led model: it acquires, holds, remediates, secures planning, services, and then sells or develops land and property. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Land sal...

Harworth Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Sep 08, 2026(Q2-2026)|% Change Since:5.67%|Next Earnings Date:Mar 22, 2027
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was predominantly positive, with strong operational momentum, record construction-ready land capacity, progress on pre-lets and powered land transactions, robust liquidity, a 10% interim dividend increase and a strategic shift toward higher-returning industrial, logistics and powered land opportunities. These positives were partly offset by a -3.7% total accounting return, a GBP 14.9 million portfolio value loss, residential market weakness, development-cost inflation, lower first-half property sales and higher net debt during the investment phase.

Positive Updates

Strong Operational Momentum
Management described the first half as a period of strong operational momentum and disciplined delivery despite a challenging market backdrop, with continued progress across the industrial and logistics and powered land pipelines.

Negative Updates

Negative Total Accounting Return
Total accounting return was -3.7%, driven primarily by a reduction in EPRA NDV per share from GBP 224.4 pence at December 31, 2025 to GBP 214.8 pence.

Company Guidance

Harworth said its substantially construction-ready land bank has the potential for gross development value estimated at GBP 600 million over the next three to five years, with 3.8 million sq ft substantially construction-ready and a further 9.6 million sq ft in the medium-term pipeline. The company intends to exit the residential sector entirely, reallocate capital to industrial and logistics and powered land, increase its 0.8 gigawatt U.K. powered land pipeline to 1.9 gigawatts, and manage its investment portfolio toward a medium-term stabilized value in the order of GBP 500 million to GBP 600 million, alongside a 100% Grade A target. It is targeting low double digit total accounting returns in the long term and low double-digit total accounting returns in the longer term, while targeted cost savings will be published as soon as possible; if surplus capital is identified after material asset sales and assessment of future accretive capital deployment opportunities, the board will consider returning some or all of this surplus capital to shareholders.

Harworth Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet strength is a positive (manageable leverage and sizable equity), but operating results and cash generation have weakened materially. 2025 saw a sharp revenue decline, negative operating profit, and deeply negative operating/free cash flow, reducing earnings quality and financial flexibility despite the otherwise solid balance sheet.

Income Statement

58Neutral

Balance Sheet

76Positive

Cash Flow

34Negative
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue124.57M130.72M181.59M72.43M166.69M109.88M
Gross Profit2.26M12.31M31.08M12.35M85.31M48.47M
EBITDA20.18M33.18M77.73M54.31M61.30M30.75M
Net Income-25.62M9.47M57.24M37.96M27.84M93.99M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.04B1.04B1.05B824.44M781.32M766.51M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments9.46M27.14M117.38M27.18M11.58M12.04M
Total Debt200.43M174.22M165.59M64.13M60.23M37.88M
Total Liabilities368.69M343.26M360.84M186.72M178.66M188.53M
Stockholders Equity670.81M698.98M691.66M637.72M602.66M577.98M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-4.37M-61.14M-13.07M2.46M37.28M50.01M
Operating Cash Flow2.87M-51.09M34.54M2.85M37.39M50.04M
Investing Cash Flow-6.30M-41.27M-37.59M15.42M-53.61M1.89M
Financing Cash Flow3.09M2.12M93.26M-2.68M15.77M-52.61M

Harworth Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNeutral
Last Price186.00

Price Trends

50DMA182.48Positive
100DMA160.32Positive
200DMA154.20Positive

Market Momentum

MACD2.71Positive
RSI49.54Neutral
STOCH37.15Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:HWG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 186.00 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 188.17, above the 50-day MA of 182.48, and above the 200-day MA of 154.20, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.71 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GB:HWG.

Harworth Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

GB:HWG against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
GB:LMPGB:LMP78OutperformGBP 4.50B14.156.29%6.81%17.12%-23.84%
GB:BLNDGB:BLND74OutperformGBP 4.36B9.247.73%5.44%15.13%29.40%
GB:MTVWGB:MTVW70OutperformGBP 343.11M16.865.05%5.97%-0.42%-13.35%
GB:SGROGB:SGRO70OutperformGBP 12.34B42.312.46%3.46%6.58%-52.02%
Sector *65Neutral$2.17B12.193.79%4.94%3.15%1.96%
GB:HWGGB:HWG59NeutralGBP 621.01M-23.54-3.74%0.98%-34.57%-148.98%
GB:BOOTGB:BOOT54NeutralGBP 202.84M17.102.93%5.21%-40.97%-53.09%

* Real Estate Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-20%0%20%40%GB:HWGGB:BOOTGB:BLNDGB:LMPGB:MTVWGB:SGRODec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
GB:HWG and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
GB:HWGHarworth Group plc186.0024.9515.49%
GB:BOOTHenry Boot151.00-63.96-29.75%
GB:BLNDBritish Land Company plc425.0068.4519.20%
GB:LMPLondonMetric Property184.406.543.68%
GB:MTVWMountview Estates8800.00-248.94-2.75%
GB:SGROSegro Plc (Reit)912.20244.1436.54%

Harworth Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesM&A Transactions

Harworth Moves Toward Delisting as BidCo Takeover Triggers Vesting of Share Options

Neutral
Oct 19, 2026

Harworth has confirmed that Peel Pepper (UK) Limited’s increased best and final cash offer of 187 pence per share has become unconditional, with BidCo and its concert parties now controlling at least 75 per cent of the company’s voting ri...

Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance

Harworth Seeks LSE Admission for 4.7 Million Shares to Fund Employee Incentive Plans

Positive
Oct 19, 2026

Harworth Group plc has applied to the London Stock Exchange for the admission to trading of 4,700,000 new ordinary shares, which will be listed on the main market and rank pari passu with the company’s existing stock. The shares will be issued...

Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesM&A Transactions

Harworth to Delist as BidCo Takes Control, Leaving Minority Investors Exposed

Negative
Oct 14, 2026

Harworth Group plc, a specialist in UK property regeneration and strategic land development, focuses on transforming complex sites into residential and commercial assets that generate long-term returns. Its portfolio and activities position the compa...

M&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance

Harworth CIO Sells Shares to Peel Bidco Amid Takeover Offer

Neutral
Oct 14, 2026

Harworth has disclosed that its chief investment officer, Jonathan Haigh, has agreed to sell a tranche of his shares to Peel Pepper (UK) Limited, the bidder pursuing an offer for the company. The disclosure, made under U.K. market rules for persons d...

Regulatory Filings and Compliance

Harworth Issues New Shares Following Employee Option Exercise

Neutral
Oct 13, 2026

Harworth Group plc has issued 21,597 new ordinary shares of 10 pence each to satisfy employee options exercised under its Save As You Earn scheme. The new shares, admitted to trading on 13 October 2026 under the company’s existing block listing...

Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance

Harworth Seeks LSE Admission for 4.5 Million Shares to Fund Employee Incentive Plans

Positive
Oct 12, 2026

Harworth Group plc has applied to the London Stock Exchange for the admission to trading of 4,500,000 new ordinary shares of 10 pence each on its main market. The shares are intended to be issued periodically to satisfy employee options and awards un...

M&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance

Harworth CFO Agrees Share Sale to Peel Bidco Under Takeover Offer

Positive
Oct 12, 2026

Harworth Group plc has disclosed that its Chief Financial Officer, Kitty Patmore, has agreed to sell a tranche of her Harworth shares to Peel Pepper (UK) Limited under the terms of Peel Bidco’s offer for the company. The transaction involves th...

M&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance

Harworth CEO Sells Shares to Peel Bidco at Offer Price

Neutral
Oct 8, 2026

Harworth Group has disclosed that its chief executive, Lynda Shillaw, has agreed to sell a portion of her shareholding to Peel Pepper (UK) Limited under the terms of Peel Bidco’s offer for the company. The transactions, conducted outside a trad...

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions

Harworth Executives Tender Shares into Peel Bidco Offer

Positive
Oct 6, 2026

Harworth Group has disclosed that several senior executives, including chief executive Lynda Shillaw and other members of the leadership team, have agreed to sell portions of their shareholdings to Peel Pepper (UK) Limited under Peel Bidco’s of...

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions

Peel Group Takes Control of Harworth With Complete Board Overhaul

Neutral
Oct 2, 2026

Harworth Group has undergone a wholesale board reshuffle after Peel Pepper (UK) Limited, part of the Peel Group, declared its best and final offer for the company unconditional. All existing directors, including Chair Alastair Lyons and Chief Executi...

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions

Harworth Board Rejects Increased Peel Bidco Offer as Undervaluing Growth Pipeline

Neutral
Sep 18, 2026

Harworth has rejected an increased mandatory cash takeover offer from Peel Bidco, which raised its bid to 177.5 pence per share after crossing the 30% ownership threshold, arguing the proposal significantly undervalues the business versus its EPRA ND...

M&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance

Harworth Board Urges Investors to Sit Tight as Peel Bidco Stake Triggers Mandatory Offer

Neutral
Sep 17, 2026

Harworth Group has responded to Peel Bidco’s move to increase its stake in the company from 29.96% to 30.00%, a threshold that automatically converts Peel’s existing 177.5 pence per share voluntary bid into a mandatory offer under Rule 9...

Delistings and Listing ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance

Harworth Issues New Shares After Employee Option Exercise

Neutral
Sep 17, 2026

Harworth Group plc has issued 31,422 new ordinary shares of 10 pence each following the exercise of options under its Save As You Earn employee scheme. The new shares, allotted under an existing block listing facility, were admitted to trading on 16...

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions

Harworth Board Reviews Increased Peel Bidco Offer, Urges Shareholders to Hold Fire

Neutral
Sep 16, 2026

Harworth Group plc has responded to Peel Pepper (UK) Limited’s increased cash offer for the company, after Peel Bidco raised its proposed consideration from 172.5 pence to 177.5 pence per share. The board said there has been no engagement with...

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions

Harworth Targets £7.4m Cost Savings as It Rejects Peel Bidco Offer

Positive
Sep 15, 2026

Harworth Group plc has outlined a plan to create a simpler, lower-cost and higher-returning platform by aligning its operating model and cost base with a pure-play focus on powered land and industrial and logistics assets. The board believes this str...

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions

Harworth Rejects Peel Bid as Deeply Undervaluing Data Centre and Logistics Pipeline

Positive
Sep 9, 2026

Harworth Group has formally rejected a 172.5p-per-share cash offer from Peel Pepper (UK) Limited, publishing a detailed response that labels the bid as fundamentally undervaluing the business. The board highlights that the offer represents a 19.7% di...

Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures

Harworth pivots to powered land and logistics amid residential valuation hit

Neutral
Sep 9, 2026

Harworth has reported half-year results to 30 June 2026 showing a 3.7% negative total accounting return and a fall in EPRA NDV, as residential market headwinds weighed on valuations despite broadly stable industrial and logistics values. Statutory ne...

M&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance

Harworth Rejects Peel’s Cash Bid as Undervaluing Regeneration Group

Neutral
Aug 26, 2026

Harworth Group has rejected an unrecommended cash offer from Peel Pepper (UK) Limited, which valued the company at 172.5p per share, insisting the bid fundamentally undervalues its near and long-term prospects. The board is reviewing Peel’s new...

Business Operations and Strategy

Harworth Expands Hyperscale Data Centre Land Pipeline with New Exclusivity Deal

Positive
Aug 20, 2026

Harworth Group has entered into an exclusivity agreement with a leading data centre provider for the sale of a powered land site capable of hosting a hyperscale data centre, following its earlier deal at Skelton Grange with Microsoft. The site has st...

Business Operations and Strategy

Harworth expands hyperscale data centre pipeline with new powered land deal

Positive
Aug 19, 2026

Harworth has entered into an exclusivity agreement with a leading data centre provider for the sale of a second powered land site capable of hosting a hyperscale facility, building on its £106m Skelton Grange powered land transaction with Micros...

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes

Harworth Executives Receive Shares Under 2019 Incentive Plan

Positive
Aug 18, 2026

Harworth Group has reported that senior executives, including its chief executive and chief financial officer, have acquired partnership shares and received matching shares under the company’s 2019 Share Incentive Plan. The ordinary shares, pri...

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes

Harworth Senior Executives Receive Shares Under 2019 Incentive Plan

Neutral
Aug 18, 2026

Harworth Group has reported transactions under its 2019 Share Incentive Plan, disclosing that eligible employees, including the chief executive, chief financial officer and other senior managers, acquired Partnership Shares funded from gross salary....

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions

Harworth Board Rejects Peel Pepper’s Unsolicited Takeover Bid

Neutral
Aug 7, 2026

Harworth Group plc has firmly rejected an unsolicited cash offer of 172.5p per share from Peel Pepper (UK) Limited, stating that the bid significantly undervalues the business and its near- and long-term prospects. The board criticised the timing of...

M&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance

Harworth Board Reviews Unsolicited Takeover Offer from Peel-Owned Bidder

Neutral
Aug 6, 2026

Harworth Group plc has confirmed that it received an unsolicited firm offer from Peel Pepper (UK) Limited, an entity indirectly owned by Peel Holdings Group. The board stated it had no prior substantive engagement with Peel Pepper or Peel regarding a...

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Harworth Advances Second Hyperscale Data Centre Deal as It Accelerates Pivot to Powered Land

Positive
Aug 5, 2026

Harworth Group has identified a second hyperscale data centre site in its powered land portfolio and is in advanced negotiations with multiple parties for a sale, with potential value gains exceeding its £106.6m 2024 transaction with Microsoft....

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Sep 11, 2026