Want to see GB:FXPO full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Ferrexpo
(LSE:FXPO)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:41Neutral
Price Target:
26.00 p
â–¼(-9.03% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/10/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (ongoing losses and negative free cash flow) and bearish technicals (price below key moving averages with very weak momentum). A very low-debt balance sheet provides some resilience, but negative earnings (reflected in a negative P/E) keep valuation and fundamentals constrained.
Positive Factors
Very low leverage
Extremely low leverage reduces solvency and refinancing pressure, preserving financial flexibility through the commodity cycle. This conservative capital structure can help Ferrexpo withstand weaker pricing or operating periods without the added burden of substantial interest obligations.
Negative Factors
Persistent losses
Persistent net losses show that the revenue rebound has not yet translated into sustainable shareholder earnings. Continued losses can erode equity, restrict internally funded investment, and leave profitability highly dependent on a meaningful improvement in operating and market conditions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Very low leverage
Extremely low leverage reduces solvency and refinancing pressure, preserving financial flexibility through the commodity cycle. This conservative capital structure can help Ferrexpo withstand weaker pricing or operating periods without the added burden of substantial interest obligations.
Read all positive factors
Ferrexpo (FXPO) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£153.45M
Dividend Yield3.06%
Average Volume (3M)898.67K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.50
Revenue Growth-18.14%
EPS Growth-352.95%
CountryUK
Employees7,078
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.08
Shares Outstanding598,137,150
10 Day Avg. Volume2,696,001
30 Day Avg. Volume898,667
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.83
Price to Sales (P/S)0.72
P/FCF Ratio-12.96
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£30.00Price Target Upside4.97% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.1
Revenue Forecast (FY)£880.00M
Ferrexpo Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ferrexpo plc, a subsidiary of Fevamotinico S.a.r.l., is engaged in the full lifecycle of iron ore pellet production, from mining and development to processing, manufacturing, marketing, exporting, and ultimately selling these pellets to the global...
How the Company Makes Money
Ferrexpo makes money primarily by selling iron ore pellet products to steel producers. Its revenue model is centered on: (1) Pellet sales as the main revenue stream: the company mines iron ore, processes it into iron ore concentrate, and pelletize...
Ferrexpo Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
30
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 814.11M | 933.26M | 651.79M | 1.25B | 2.52B |
| Gross Profit | 292.74M | 335.82M | 289.30M | 666.04M | 1.79B |
| EBITDA | 50.20M | 42.48M | -8.01M | 438.55M | 1.19B |
| Net Income | -231.53M | -50.05M | -84.78M | 220.00M | 870.99M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 933.33M | 1.19B | 1.35B | 1.35B | 2.09B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 58.47M | 105.92M | 115.24M | 112.94M | 167.29M |
| Total Debt | 11.02M | 5.08M | 6.95M | 6.55M | 50.35M |
| Total Liabilities | 229.67M | 263.29M | 233.69M | 104.46M | 260.35M |
| Stockholders Equity | 703.61M | 923.59M | 1.11B | 1.25B | 1.83B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -45.27M | -9.79M | -78.00K | 140.25M | 732.96M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.47M | 91.90M | 101.17M | 301.26M | 1.09B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -50.04M | -97.53M | -96.55M | -159.30M | -355.29M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.73M | -5.66M | -5.87M | -203.09M | -840.18M |
Ferrexpo Technical Analysis
Negative
28.58
Price Trends
28.51
Negative
28.74
Negative
45.96
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.24
Positive
48.07
Neutral
8.53
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:FXPO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 28.58 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.42, above the 50-day MA of 28.51, and below the 200-day MA of 45.96, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.53 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:FXPO.
Ferrexpo Risk Analysis
Ferrexpo disclosed 14 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ferrexpo reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ferrexpo Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | £498.86M | 21.49 | 12.27% | ― | 6.02% | 1.37% | |
66 Neutral | £509.47M | 19.21 | 11.90% | ― | 28.80% | 286.76% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
45 Neutral | £5.08M | -0.61 | -7.17% | ― | ― | ― | |
43 Neutral | £37.56M | -5.59 | -4.06% | ― | ― | -170.37% | |
41 Neutral | £153.45M | -4.77 | -31.05% | 3.06% | -18.14% | -352.95% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
GB:FXPO
Ferrexpo
28.16
-22.54
-44.46%
GB:EVR
EVRAZ plc
81.00
0.00
0.00%
GB:GFM
Griffin Mining
275.00
84.00
43.98%
GB:IRON
Ironveld
0.02
-0.02
-46.67%
GB:MTL
Metals Exploration
16.05
3.15
24.42%
GB:ZIOC
Zanaga Iron Ore
3.97
-2.83
-41.62%
Ferrexpo Corporate Events
Financial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Ferrexpo Sets October General Meeting After $100m Equity Raise
Positive
Sep 10, 2026
Ferrexpo has issued the formal notice for its 2026 General Meeting, scheduled for 9 October 2026, along with the related proxy form, with documentation made available via its website and the UK National Storage Mechanism. The meeting will address ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Ferrexpo Secures US$15 Million Shareholder Loan Ahead of US$100 Million Fundraise
Positive
Sep 8, 2026
Ferrexpo has secured a US$15 million unsecured loan facility from its largest shareholder, Fevamotinico S.à r.l., to bridge immediate liquidity needs ahead of a planned US$100 million equity fundraising. The facility supports working capital ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Ferrexpo Restarts Ukrainian Iron Ore Production After Fundraising
Positive
Sep 7, 2026
Ferrexpo has restarted production at its Ukrainian operations, bringing one pellet line back online following a recent US$100 million fundraising. In response to ongoing attacks on ports and vessels in the Black Sea, the company plans to concentra...
Financial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Ferrexpo Publishes 2025 Annual Report Ahead of US$100m Fundraise Meeting
Positive
Sep 4, 2026
Ferrexpo plc has published its Annual Report and Accounts for the year ended 31 December 2025, together with a shareholder circular, notice of general meeting, and form of proxy connected to a recently announced equity fundraise. These documents a...
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesPrivate Placements and FinancingShareholder Meetings
Ferrexpo Raises US$100m to Restart Ukrainian Output as London Trading Resumes
Positive
Sep 4, 2026
Ferrexpo has executed an oversubscribed equity fundraise of 448,848,484 new ordinary shares at 16.5 pence, raising about US$100 million from existing and new institutional investors. The raise includes a US$50 million cornerstone commitment from i...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Ferrexpo Hit by War and VAT Squeeze as It Moves to Raise $100m
Negative
Sep 3, 2026
Ferrexpo reported sharply weaker 2025 results as the war in Ukraine, withheld VAT refunds and energy infrastructure attacks constrained production and cash flow, forcing capacity cuts from 50% to 25% and temporary shutdowns. Revenue fell 16% to $7...
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and FinancingShareholder Meetings
Ferrexpo launches $100m equity lifeline to avert insolvency risk
Negative
Sep 3, 2026
Ferrexpo plans to raise about US$100 million through a discounted equity issue, combining a US$60 million placing and a US$40 million subscription by its largest shareholder, to stabilise working capital and fund reduced operations for the next 18...
Business Operations and StrategyLegal ProceedingsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ferrexpo contests UAH 35.3bn penalty against Ukrainian unit
Negative
Aug 6, 2026
Ferrexpo has disclosed that its Ukrainian subsidiary, Ferrexpo Poltava Mining, faces a proposed penalty of about UAH 35.3 billion, or roughly US$788 million, following an unscheduled documentary review by Ukrainian tax authorities of its complianc...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Ferrexpo Halts Ukrainian Production as Black Sea Disruptions Strain Cash
Negative
Aug 5, 2026
Ferrexpo has confirmed that a third-party owned vessel carrying its DR-grade iron ore pellets has been successfully located, removed from a war-risk area in the Black Sea and is being towed to a nearby port for inspection and assessment of the car...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Ferrexpo Hit by Black Sea Vessel Strike as Liquidity Window Narrows
Negative
Jul 28, 2026
Ferrexpo has reported a serious logistics setback after a vessel carrying its high-quality direct reduction-grade iron ore pellets was struck by Russian drones in Ukrainian waters of the Black Sea, killing a crew member and leaving the ship and ca...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresLegal ProceedingsPrivate Placements and Financing
Ferrexpo lifts output but warns cash squeeze may force equity raise or insolvency
Negative
Jul 15, 2026
Ferrexpo has restored steady output from a single pellet line despite operating in a war‑strained environment in Ukraine, lifting second‑quarter production 63% quarter on quarter to 963,000 tonnes, mainly premium pellets and high‑...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ferrexpo details $40.6m in 2025 payments to Ukrainian governments
Neutral
Jul 1, 2026
Ferrexpo has disclosed its 2025 payments to governments, reporting total disbursements of $40.6 million related to its Ukrainian mining operations, primarily in taxes and royalties. The report, issued under UK transparency regulations, details con...
Executive/Board ChangesStock BuybackShareholder Meetings
Ferrexpo Wins Strong Shareholder Backing at Annual General Meeting
Positive
Jun 29, 2026
Ferrexpo’s shareholders approved all resolutions at the company’s latest annual general meeting, including the re-election of directors Stuart Brown, Nikolay Kladiev, Lucio Genovese and Fiona MacAulay. The poll-based voting also renewe...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Ferrexpo shores up liquidity and eyes US$100m equity raise amid Ukraine war pressures
Negative
Jun 29, 2026
Ferrexpo has reaffirmed its position as a producer and exporter of premium iron ore pellets, maintaining operations in Ukraine despite the ongoing war and associated logistical and financial disruptions. The company continues to serve European and...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.