Ferrexpo (FXPO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £321.84M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.60M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.13
• Revenue Growth: -5.85%
• EPS Growth: -413.36%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 7,078
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Steel
• EPS (TTM): -0.26
• Shares Outstanding: 598,137,150
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,182,331
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,600,029
• PEG Ratio: 0.40
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.86
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.85
• P/FCF Ratio: -81.03
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £67.50
• Price Target Upside: 23.40% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: 56.00p ▲(2.38% Upside)

The overall stock score is primarily influenced by the company's financial challenges, including declining revenues and profitability. Technical analysis provides some short-term optimism, but poor valuation due to negative earnings significantly impacts the score. Investors should be cautious of the ongoing financial difficulties.

Ferrexpo Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ferrexpo plc, together with its subsidiaries, mines for, develops, processes, produces, markets, exports, and sells iron ore pellets to the metallurgical industry. It operates two mines and a processing plant near Kremenchug in Ukraine; a port in Odessa; a fleet of vessels operating on the Rhine and Danube waterways; and an ocean-going vessel, which provides top-off services. The company also offers finance, management, procurement, transportation, marketing, shipping, barging, and port services. It has operation in Europe, North East Asia, China, South East Asia, Turkey, the Middle East, North Africa, and internationally. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Baar, Switzerland. Ferrexpo Plc is a subsidiary of Fevamotinico S.a.r.l.

How the Company Makes Money

Ferrexpo generates revenue primarily through the sale of iron ore pellets to steel manufacturers and other industrial customers around the world. The company benefits from a diversified customer base, including major steel producers in Europe and Asia. Key revenue streams include direct sales of pellets, which are typically sold under long-term contracts or on the spot market, allowing Ferrexpo to capitalize on fluctuations in iron ore prices. Additionally, Ferrexpo may engage in partnerships with logistics companies to facilitate the transportation of its products, further enhancing its distribution capabilities. Factors contributing to its earnings include the global demand for steel, pricing trends in the iron ore market, and operational efficiencies achieved through its mining and production processes.

Ferrexpo Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ferrexpo's financial health is under pressure, primarily due to declining revenues and profitability. Despite a strong equity ratio and low leverage, persistent net losses and negative free cash flow are concerning. The company needs to address operational inefficiencies and cost management to return to profitability and improve overall financial stability.

Income Statement

The income statement reveals a concerning trend with declining revenue and profitability over recent years. The gross profit margin has decreased from 71.4% in 2021 to 36.0% in 2024, reflecting increased cost pressures. Additionally, the net profit margin has turned negative, from 34.6% in 2021 to -5.4% in 2024, highlighting operational challenges. Revenue growth has been negative in recent years, with a significant drop of 62.9% from 2021 to 2023. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also deteriorated, indicating decreased operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a relatively stable equity position with an equity ratio of 77.8% in 2024, suggesting a low reliance on debt. However, there is a notable decline in stockholders' equity from previous years, reflecting accumulated losses. The debt-to-equity ratio remains low at 0.006, indicating conservative leverage. However, return on equity has turned negative due to consistent net losses, posing a risk to shareholder value.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates declining free cash flow, which turned negative in 2024. While operating cash flow remains positive, the free cash flow to net income ratio is concerning due to negative net income. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is skewed due to persistent losses, and despite positive operating cash flows, capital expenditures exceed generated cash flows, impacting liquidity.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	837.34M	933.26M	651.79M	1.25B	2.52B	1.70B
Gross Profit	437.39M	335.82M	289.30M	666.04M	1.79B	1.09B
EBITDA	-225.50M	42.48M	-8.01M	438.55M	1.19B	861.46M
Net Income	-301.52M	-50.05M	-84.78M	220.00M	870.99M	635.29M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	982.69M	1.19B	1.35B	1.35B	2.09B	1.95B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	52.26M	105.92M	115.24M	112.94M	167.29M	270.01M
Total Debt	2.72M	5.08M	6.95M	6.55M	50.35M	266.48M
Total Liabilities	242.94M	263.29M	233.69M	104.46M	260.35M	463.49M
Stockholders Equity	739.68M	923.59M	1.11B	1.25B	1.83B	1.49B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-62.29M	-9.79M	-78.00K	140.25M	732.96M	481.44M
Operating Cash Flow	12.47M	91.90M	101.17M	301.26M	1.09B	687.22M
Investing Cash Flow	-71.16M	-97.53M	-96.55M	-159.30M	-355.29M	-205.47M
Financing Cash Flow	-5.27M	-5.66M	-5.87M	-203.09M	-840.18M	-343.43M

Ferrexpo Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 54.70
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:FXPO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 54.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 53.84, above the 50-day MA of 52.26, and below the 200-day MA of 67.08, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.54 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:FXPO.

Ferrexpo Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ATYM	76 Outperform	840.33M	13.37	13.04%	0.64%	21.25%	108.30%
GFM	56 Neutral	326.84M	50.00	4.16%	―	-32.18%	-58.29%
KMR	56 Neutral	276.35M	-7.16	5.59%	5.38%	6.65%	-159.09%
FXPO	54 Neutral	£321.84M	―	-33.39%	―	-5.85%	-413.36%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%

Ferrexpo Corporate Events

Ferrexpo Re-elects Independent Director Amidst Strategic Focus

Ferrexpo PLC announced the successful re-election of Vitalii Lisovenko as an Independent Non-executive Director during its General Meeting. The resolution was passed with 87.04% of votes in favor, reflecting shareholder support for the company’s governance. This decision is significant for Ferrexpo’s strategic direction and stability, particularly given its role in the global steel industry and the challenges posed by geopolitical tensions in Ukraine.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FXPO) stock is a Hold with a £53.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ferrexpo stock, see the GB:FXPO Stock Forecast page.

Ferrexpo Announces General Meeting for Board Re-Election

Ferrexpo PLC has announced the publication of a Notice of General Meeting scheduled for 11 September 2025, aiming to seek the re-election of Vitalii Lisovenko to the Board of Directors. This meeting is part of the company’s ongoing governance and operational strategy, reflecting its commitment to maintaining a stable leadership structure amidst challenging market conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FXPO) stock is a Hold with a £1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ferrexpo stock, see the GB:FXPO Stock Forecast page.

Ferrexpo Faces Operational Challenges Amid VAT Refund Suspension

Ferrexpo’s interim results for the first half of 2025 reveal significant challenges due to the suspension of VAT refunds by the Ukrainian tax authorities, leading to a 40% drop in production in the second quarter and necessitating cost-cutting measures such as furloughing 40% of its workforce. Despite these hurdles, Ferrexpo managed to increase its production of high-grade iron ore concentrate, driven by strong demand from China, and maintained operations amidst the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, although financial metrics such as revenues and EBITDA saw substantial declines.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FXPO) stock is a Hold with a £1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ferrexpo stock, see the GB:FXPO Stock Forecast page.

Ferrexpo Faces Production Challenges Amid VAT Refund Suspension

Ferrexpo reported a significant decrease in production for the second quarter of 2025 due to the suspension of VAT refunds by Ukrainian tax authorities, which affected financial liquidity and forced operational downscaling. Despite these challenges, Ferrexpo adapted by shifting its production mix to meet strong demand from China for high-grade low-alumina iron ore concentrates, which constituted a significant portion of its production mix. The company has implemented cost-cutting measures, including reduced working hours and suspension of non-essential expenditures, to maintain financial viability amid lower iron ore prices and increased raw material costs.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:FXPO) stock is a Hold with a £1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ferrexpo stock, see the GB:FXPO Stock Forecast page.