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Duke Capital (DUKE) AI Stock Analysis

GB:DUKE

Duke Capital

(LSE:DUKE)

Select Model
Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:GBX 20.00â–²(8.11% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:10/31/26

The score is driven primarily by solid-but-mixed financial performance (strong FY2026 revenue rebound and profitability offset by volatile margins, rising debt, and highly inconsistent free cash flow) and supportive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). These positives are tempered by very weak technicals, with the stock in a pronounced downtrend and deeply oversold momentum readings.

Positive Factors
Contracted recurring revenueDuke Capital’s structured-finance model is designed to produce recurring contractual payments rather than relying solely on asset sales or market movements. A portfolio of long-term funding arrangements can support revenue visibility, provided investee businesses continue meeting their payment obligations.
Negative Factors
Material debt increaseThe large increase in absolute debt raises financial risk even though the company retains a meaningful equity base. Higher borrowings can increase financing obligations and reduce flexibility if portfolio-company payments weaken or earnings soften over the next several periods.

Duke Capital (DUKE) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%GB:DUKE-24.60%EWC+21.27%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
GBP 93.38M
Dividend Yield
15.14%
Average Volume (3M)
1.65M
Price to Earnings (P/E)
8.5
Beta (1Y)
0.26
Revenue Growth
-2.21%
EPS Growth
354.17%
Country
UK
Employees
18
Sector
Financial
Sector Strength
68
Industry
Asset Management

Duke Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Duke Capital Limited operates as a private equity firm primarily engaged in Management Buyouts (MBOs), buy-and-build strategies, mid-market investments, minority buyouts, restructuring endeavors, and royalty financing for small to medium-sized enterp...

How the Company Makes Money

DUKE makes money by providing capital to portfolio companies under structured financing agreements that are designed to generate recurring contractual cash flows. Its primary revenue stream is the ongoing payments it receives from these agreements (t...

Duke Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement strength is supported by a sharp FY2026 revenue rebound (+90.8% YoY) and generally strong profitability, but results look uneven with volatile margins and years where profits exceed revenue (suggesting non-core influences). The balance sheet shows a meaningful equity base with historically moderate leverage, yet debt has risen materially (≈18m in FY2021 to ≈99m in FY2026). Cash flow is the main drag: operating cash flow is positive, but free cash flow is highly volatile and reported as zero in FY2026, increasing uncertainty around cash generation.

Income Statement

78Positive

Balance Sheet

74Positive

Cash Flow

56Neutral
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMMar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue28.64M28.64M15.01M25.39M21.88M18.36M
Gross Profit28.39M28.39M6.40M19.04M21.20M16.62M
EBITDA20.96M20.97M15.16M27.38M26.70M23.50M
Net Income10.99M10.99M2.00M11.61M19.59M20.39M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets276.15M276.15M268.60M238.31M221.52M183.73M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments79.33M79.33M19.77M36.26M41.73M26.54M
Total Debt99.43M99.43M88.33M70.88M55.07M48.85M
Total Liabilities101.32M101.32M91.05M73.03M57.26M50.79M
Stockholders Equity174.83M174.83M177.55M165.28M164.26M132.94M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow10.43M021.52M16.92M10.72M71.92M
Operating Cash Flow17.43M13.22M21.52M16.92M10.72M9.34M
Investing Cash Flow-20.55M-20.55M-22.87M-26.38M-25.17M-61.83M
Financing Cash Flow-8.29M-4.08M18.33M-2.75M17.71M56.49M

Duke Capital Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price18.50

Price Trends

50DMA25.10Negative
100DMA25.59Negative
200DMA25.14Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-1.65Positive
RSI20.93Positive
STOCH9.45Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:DUKE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 18.50 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.68, below the 50-day MA of 25.10, and below the 200-day MA of 25.14, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.65 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 20.93 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.45 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:DUKE.

Duke Capital Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

GB:DUKE against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
GB:CLIGGB:CLIG77OutperformGBP 214.94M11.8915.69%5.01%5.81%19.19%
Sector *68Neutral$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
GB:DUKEGB:DUKE66NeutralGBP 93.38M8.496.27%15.14%-2.21%354.17%
GB:MERCGB:MERC61NeutralGBP 127.84M-15.02-4.78%3.28%-2.25%-350.00%
GB:RECGB:REC61NeutralGBP 88.76M11.9127.84%7.69%-3.44%-16.56%
GB:IPXGB:IPX58NeutralGBP 111.91M8.7311.90%10.82%-22.86%-56.06%
GB:LIOGB:LIO56NeutralGBP 170.76M17.718.74%6.88%-20.90%-41.22%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-50%-25%0%25%50%GB:DUKEGB:CLIGGB:IPXGB:LIOGB:MERCGB:RECDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
GB:DUKE and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
GB:DUKEDuke Capital Ltd18.50-6.26-25.29%
GB:CLIGCity of London Investment444.0097.7428.23%
GB:IPXImpax Asset Management92.40-82.03-47.03%
GB:LIOLiontrust Asset Management276.00-9.75-3.41%
GB:MERCMercia Asset Management Plc30.501.535.28%
GB:RECRecord plc46.80-8.37-15.18%

Duke Capital Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures

Duke Capital Holds Cash Revenue Steady as Portfolio Restructuring Advances

Neutral
Oct 21, 2026

Duke Capital has responded to recent share price volatility by reporting that total cash revenue for the quarter to 30 September held steady at £7.0m, with interim dividends of 1.4p covered by free cash flow and a broadly diversified portfolio a...

Business Operations and StrategyDividends

Duke Capital Declares Q2 Interim Dividend to Sustain Shareholder Income

Positive
Sep 17, 2026

Duke Capital Limited, an AIM-listed provider of hybrid capital solutions for SMEs in Europe and North America, focuses on long-term corporate mortgage-style financing that aligns its returns with client business growth. The Guernsey-based firm target...

Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings

Duke Capital Shareholders Approve All Resolutions at 2026 AGM

Positive
Aug 25, 2026

Duke Capital Limited reported that all resolutions proposed at its Annual General Meeting held on 25 August 2026 were duly passed by shareholders. The company will publish detailed voting results on its website, underscoring routine but successful sh...

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance

Duke Capital Expands LTIP Awards and Tops Up EBT with New Share Issue

Neutral
Aug 17, 2026

Duke Capital’s remuneration committee has granted 4,589,000 conditional performance share awards under its long-term incentive plan for the year to 31 March 2026, with significant allocations to CEO Neil Johnson and executive director Charlie C...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 31, 2026