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Compass Group plc (GB:CPG)
:CPG
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Compass (CPG) AI Stock Analysis

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GB:CPG

Compass

(LSE:CPG)

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Neutral 66 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
2,744.00p
▲(8.76% Upside)
Compass's strong financial performance is the most significant factor, indicating robust growth and efficient cash flow management. However, technical analysis suggests potential bearish momentum, and the high P/E ratio indicates limited valuation upside. The dividend yield provides some support to the stock's attractiveness.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Strong revenue growth indicates successful market expansion and product adoption, supporting long-term business sustainability and competitive positioning.
Cash Flow Management
Robust cash flow management ensures the company can fund operations and growth initiatives, enhancing financial stability and strategic flexibility.
Operational Efficiency
High operational efficiency reflects effective cost management and resource utilization, contributing to sustained profitability and competitive advantage.
Negative Factors
Equity Proportion
A lower equity proportion may limit financial flexibility and increase vulnerability to economic downturns, necessitating improvements for long-term resilience.
Earnings Decline
A decline in earnings per share can indicate challenges in maintaining profitability, potentially affecting investor confidence and future growth prospects.
Debt Levels
While leverage is manageable, maintaining control over debt levels is crucial to avoid financial strain and ensure long-term financial health.

Compass (CPG) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Compass Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCompass Group PLC operates as a food and support services company in North America, Europe, and internationally. The company offers support services, such as cleaning in hospitals; reception services at corporate headquarters; managing remote camps; grounds and facilities services at schools and universities; and others. It serves business and industry; healthcare and senior living market; education; sports and leisure; and defense, offshore, and remote sectors. Compass Group PLC was founded in 1941 and is based in Chertsey, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyCompass generates revenue primarily through the sale of its consumer packaged goods across various retail channels, including supermarkets, convenience stores, and e-commerce platforms. Key revenue streams include direct sales of its branded products, private label partnerships, and distribution agreements with major retailers. Additionally, the company may benefit from strategic alliances with other firms for co-branding initiatives or joint marketing campaigns, which can enhance brand visibility and drive sales. The focus on innovation and responding to consumer trends also positions Compass to capture market share and increase profitability.

Compass Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 25, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong financial and operational performance with significant growth in key metrics and strategic investments driving future opportunities. However, challenges such as rising interest expenses and uncertainty in volume growth temper the overall optimism.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Operating profit increased by 16% with organic revenue growth of 11% and EPS up by 15%.
Net New Business Growth
Net new business was 4.2% for the year, accelerating to 4.8% in the second half, providing good momentum into 2025.
Strategic Investments and M&A
Invested $2.6 billion in CapEx and M&A, including acquisitions in the UK, Germany, France, and Norway, enhancing growth opportunities.
High Retention Rates
Improved retention rates, with second half retention above 96% and strong new business wins in sectors like B&I.
Positive Market Dynamics
Favorable outsourcing trends and market opportunities, especially in North America and Europe, supporting sustained growth.
Negative Updates
Increased Interest Expense
Interest expenses increased to $249 million due to higher interest rates and debt, projected to rise to $300 million in fiscal year '25.
Impact of Acquisitions and Disposals
Net impact of acquisitions and disposals expected to reduce profit in fiscal year 2025 by around $30 million.
Volume Growth Uncertainty
Volume growth moderated to around 2% and remains difficult to predict, with potential net positive but uncertain outlook.
Company Guidance
During the 2024 full year results call, Compass Group provided detailed guidance for fiscal year 2025, highlighting expectations for high single-digit operating profit growth driven by organic growth above 7.5%. The company anticipates continued margin improvement and net new business growth within a 4% to 5% range, marking an acceleration in the second half of 2024 to 4.8%. The guidance reflects pricing trends aligned with inflation at 2% to 3% and a likely net positive volume growth, despite a moderation to around 2% in 2024. The company also plans to sustain high revenue and profit growth across all regions, with a forecasted group operating profit increase of 16% to $3 billion. Interest expenses are expected to rise to $300 million due to acquisition activities, while the effective tax rate is projected to remain at 25.5%. Capital expenditure is anticipated to be around 3.5% of revenue. Compass Group's ongoing investment in its portfolio, including recent acquisitions such as Dupont Restauration in France, aims to unlock further growth opportunities and drive the company's long-term compounding shareholder returns.

Compass Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Compass exhibits strong financial health with impressive revenue and profit growth, efficient cash flow management, and a stable balance sheet. The company shows robust operational efficiency and profitability, although maintaining control over debt levels and enhancing equity proportion could further strengthen its financial position.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Compass has shown impressive revenue growth from 2023 to 2024, with a 35.36% increase. The company maintains a healthy gross profit margin of 33.15% and a solid net profit margin of 3.34%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins of 6.05% and 8.12%, respectively, indicate strong operational efficiency. Overall, the income statement reflects robust growth and profitability.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Compass's balance sheet is stable with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.87, indicating manageable leverage. The return on equity is 20.56%, showcasing efficient utilization of equity capital. An equity ratio of 28.05% suggests a balanced capital structure. While the company maintains a healthy position, slight improvements in equity proportion could enhance stability.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
The company demonstrates strong cash flow management, with a significant operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.23. Free cash flow has grown by 22.18% from 2023 to 2024, supporting the company's operational and growth activities. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.59 further emphasizes positive cash flow generation relative to earnings.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue43.03B42.00B31.03B25.51B17.91B19.94B
Gross Profit13.79B13.93B1.95B1.48B962.00M3.76B
EBITDA2.74B2.76B2.74B2.35B1.28B915.00M
Net Income1.14B1.40B1.31B1.24B357.00M133.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets19.50B24.35B21.48B18.75B14.87B14.73B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments505.47M623.00M1.03B1.99B1.84B1.48B
Total Debt5.51B5.91B5.27B4.88B4.48B4.72B
Total Liabilities14.04B17.44B15.18B12.84B9.95B9.92B
Stockholders Equity5.39B6.83B6.26B5.87B4.89B4.79B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow2.05B2.23B1.83B1.31B943.00M205.00M
Operating Cash Flow2.47B3.13B2.17B1.60B1.17B914.00M
Investing Cash Flow-1.65B-1.26B-1.23B-874.00M-727.00M-1.10B
Financing Cash Flow-997.82M-1.53B-2.09B-693.00M-152.00M1.28B

Compass Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price2523.00
Price Trends
50DMA
2572.86
Negative
100DMA
2562.96
Negative
200DMA
2592.06
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-22.29
Positive
RSI
47.93
Neutral
STOCH
34.79
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:CPG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2523 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2531.40, below the 50-day MA of 2572.86, and below the 200-day MA of 2592.06, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -22.29 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:CPG.

Compass Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
£1.48B8.805.81%1.95%275.56%
67
Neutral
£248.11M5.61-2.83%0.50%
66
Neutral
£42.82B37.3321.77%2.21%7.67%-15.09%
66
Neutral
£1.33B-56.6712.06%2.22%11.49%-406.25%
64
Neutral
£726.84M13.072.20%3.70%57.10%
59
Neutral
£758.94M9.98-109.73%5.60%-0.67%2.43%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:CPG
Compass
2,523.00
173.09
7.37%
GB:DOM
Domino's Pizza
198.20
-89.51
-31.11%
GB:MARS
Marston's
39.20
-2.30
-5.54%
GB:MAB
Mitchells & Butlers
249.00
-46.50
-15.74%
GB:SSPG
SSP Group plc
166.60
10.64
6.82%
GB:JDW
J D Wetherspoon
682.00
-42.43
-5.86%

Compass Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Compass Group Announces Board Appointment of Stefan Bomhard
Positive
Sep 12, 2025

Compass Group PLC has announced the appointment of Stefan Bomhard to the Board of Flutter Entertainment plc as a Non-executive Director, effective from October 1, 2025. This strategic move is expected to enhance Compass Group’s governance and strengthen its industry connections, potentially influencing its market positioning and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPG) stock is a Buy with a £29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Compass stock, see the GB:CPG Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Compass Group PLC Announces Total Voting Rights and Capital Update
Neutral
Sep 1, 2025

Compass Group PLC has announced its total voting rights and capital as of 31 August 2025, with an issued share capital consisting of 1,785,403,977 ordinary shares. Of these, 1,697,430,179 shares are admitted to trading, while 87,973,798 shares are held in treasury with suspended voting rights. The company also sponsors a level 1 American Depositary Receipt Programme, allowing its shares to be traded on the New York Stock Exchange. This announcement provides shareholders with the necessary information to calculate their interests under the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPG) stock is a Buy with a £2807.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Compass stock, see the GB:CPG Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 19, 2025