Antofagasta (70GD) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Antofagasta reiterated full‑year 2026 guidance of 625,000–655,000 tonnes of copper (revised down after the Pelambres storm and about 5 million m3 of snow), maintained net cash‑cost guidance of $1.15–$1.35/lb (after an 8% y/y reduction in net cash cost; Centinela ~ $0.70/lb), and confirmed its growth pipeline is fully funded with the Centinela second concentrator on track for commissioning in 2027 and ramp‑up in 2028 (≈30% volume uplift on completion; ~$3.3bn spent to date; $2.5bn project facility expected to be drawn). In H1 the group delivered EBITDA up 27% to $2.84bn with a 63% EBITDA margin, cash flow from operations +53%, an interim dividend of $0.301 (≈+80–81%, consistent with a ≥35% payout policy), and capex guidance of ~$3.4bn for 2026 (peak spend behind) with sustaining capex of $1.0–$1.5bn p.a. for the next couple of years and only tail CapEx in 2027 before returning to sustaining levels in 2028; Zaldivar approved a $900m water pipeline to transition off continental water by mid‑2028 (supporting potential life to 2051). The company also booked $630m of lease liabilities into net debt, reports term contracts securing sulphuric‑acid supply for 2027 (while spot has stabilised), does not hedge input costs, and expects cash/P&L tax timing to reverse in H2.