Viking Therapeutics (0VQA) Risk Analysis

Regulatory authorities in some jurisdictions, including the United States and Europe, may designate drugs for relatively small patient populations as orphan drugs. Under the Orphan Drug Act, the FDA may designate a product as an orphan drug if it is a drug intended to treat a rare disease or condition, which is generally defined as a patient population of fewer than 200,000 individuals annually in the United States. While we received orphan drug designation from the FDA for VK0214 for the treatment of X-ALD in December 2016, we, or any future collaborators, may not be granted orphan drug designations for our product candidates in the U.S. or in other jurisdictions. Even if we, or any future collaborators, obtain orphan drug designation for a product candidate, we, or they, may not be able to obtain orphan drug exclusivity for that product candidate. Generally, a product with orphan drug designation only becomes entitled to orphan drug exclusivity if it receives the first marketing approval for the indication for which it has such designation, in which case the FDA or the EMA will be precluded from approving another marketing application for the same drug for that indication for the applicable exclusivity period. The applicable exclusivity period is seven years in the United States and ten years in Europe. The European exclusivity period can be reduced to six years if a drug no longer meets the criteria for orphan drug designation or if the drug is sufficiently profitable so that market exclusivity is no longer justified. Orphan drug exclusivity may be lost if the FDA or the EMA determines that the request for designation was materially defective or if the manufacturer is unable to assure sufficient quantity of the drug to meet the needs of patients with the rare disease or condition. Additionally, in Catalyst Pharms., Inc. v. Becerra, 14 F.4th 1299 (11th Cir. 2021), the court disagreed with the FDA's longstanding position that the orphan drug exclusivity only applies to the approved use or indication within the relevant orphan drug designation. This decision created uncertainty in the application of the orphan drug exclusivity. In January 2023, the FDA published a notice in the Federal Register to clarify that while the FDA complies with the court's order in Catalyst, the FDA intends to continue to apply its longstanding interpretation of the regulations to matters outside of the scope of the Catalyst order – that is, the agency will continue tying the scope of orphan-drug exclusivity to the uses or indications for which a drug is approved, which permits other sponsors to obtain approval of a drug for new uses or indications within the same orphan designated disease or condition that have not yet been approved. It is unclear how future litigation, legislation, FDA decisions, and administrative actions will impact the scope of the orphan drug exclusivity. Even if we, or any future collaborators, obtain orphan drug exclusivity for a product, that exclusivity may not effectively protect the product from competition because the FDA has taken the position that, under certain circumstances, another drug with the same active moiety can be approved for the same condition. Specifically, the FDA's regulations provide that it can approve another drug with the same active moiety for the same condition if the FDA concludes that the later drug is clinically superior in that it is shown to be safer, more effective or makes a major contribution to patient care.

We expect to expend substantial funds in research and development, including preclinical studies and clinical trials of our drug candidates, and to manufacture and market any drug candidates in the event they are approved for commercial sale. We also may need additional funding to develop or acquire complementary companies, technologies and assets, as well as for working capital requirements and other operating and general corporate purposes. Moreover, our planned increases in staffing will dramatically increase our costs in the near and long-term. However, our spending on current and future research and development programs and drug candidates for specific indications may not yield any commercially viable products. Due to our limited financial and managerial resources, we must focus on a limited number of research programs and drug candidates and on specific indications. Our resource allocation decisions may cause us to fail to capitalize on viable commercial products or profitable market opportunities. Because the successful development of our drug candidates is uncertain, we are unable to precisely estimate the actual funds we will require to develop and potentially commercialize them. In addition, we may not be able to generate sufficient revenue, even if we are able to commercialize any of our drug candidates, to become profitable.

To receive regulatory approval for the commercialization of our core metabolic and endocrine disease assets, VK2735 subcutaneous, VK2735 oral, VK3019, VK2809, VK0214, VK5211, VK0612 and our earlier-stage assets, our DGAT-1 and EPOR programs, or any other drug candidates that we may develop, adequate and well-controlled clinical trials must be conducted to demonstrate safety and efficacy in humans to the satisfaction of the FDA, EMA and comparable foreign authorities. In order to support marketing approval, these agencies typically require successful results in one or more Phase 3 clinical trials, for which, other than VK2735, our current drug candidates have not yet reached and may never reach, and for VK2735, we have only just recently commenced the Phase 3 studies. The development process is expensive, can take many years and has an uncertain outcome. Failure can occur at any stage of the process. We may experience numerous unforeseen events during, or as a result of, the development process that could delay or prevent commercialization of our current or future drug candidates, including the following: - clinical trials may produce negative or inconclusive results;- preclinical studies conducted with drug candidates during clinical development to, among other things, evaluate their toxicology, carcinogenicity and pharmacokinetics and optimize their formulation may produce unfavorable results;- patient recruitment and enrollment in clinical trials may be slower than we anticipate;- costs of development may be greater than we anticipate;- our drug candidates may cause undesirable side effects that delay or preclude regulatory approval or limit their commercial use or market acceptance, if approved;- collaborators who may be responsible for the development of our drug candidates may not devote sufficient resources to these clinical trials or other preclinical studies of these candidates or conduct them in a timely manner; or - we may face delays in obtaining regulatory approvals to commence one or more clinical trials. Success in early development does not mean that later development will be successful because, for example, drug candidates in later-stage clinical trials may fail to demonstrate sufficient safety and efficacy despite having progressed through initial clinical trials. In February 2024, we reported positive top-line results from the VENTURE Phase 2 clinical trial for VK2735 in patients with obesity, in June 2025, we announced the initiation of our VANQUISH Phase 3 program for the subcutaneous formulation and in August 2025, we announced positive top-line results from our Phase 2 clinical trial of the oral tablet formulation of VK2735. In May 2023, we reported positive top-line results from the VOYAGE Phase 2b clinical trial for VK2809 and in June 2024, we announced positive 52-week histologic data from the VOYAGE study. In late 2017, we reported positive top-line results from a Phase 2 clinical trial for VK5211. In October 2024, we reported positive data from our Phase 1b clinical trial of VK0214 in patients with X-ALD. However, there is no guarantee that the results of our Phase 2 clinical trials for VK2735 subcutaneous, VK2735 oral or VK2809 or our Phase 1b clinical trial for VK0214 will be repeated for our other drug candidates or lead to other positive outcomes, including our VANQUISH Phase 3 program or any other clinical trials that we may initiate. As a company, we have conducted only a limited number of clinical trials and preclinical studies for our drug candidates. Therefore, we have limited experience in conducting clinical trials for our drug candidates. Since our experience with our drug candidates is limited, we will need to train our existing personnel and hire additional personnel in order to successfully administer and manage our clinical trials and other studies as planned, which may result in delays in completing such planned clinical trials and preclinical studies. Moreover, to date, our drug candidates have been tested in less than the number of patients that will likely need to be studied to obtain regulatory approval. The data collected from clinical trials with larger patient populations may not demonstrate sufficient safety and efficacy to support regulatory approval of these drug candidates. We currently do not have strategic collaborations in place for clinical development of any of our current drug candidates. Therefore, in the future, we or any potential future collaborative partner will be responsible for establishing the targeted endpoints and goals for development of our drug candidates. These targeted endpoints and goals may be inadequate to demonstrate the safety and efficacy levels required for regulatory approvals. Even if we believe data collected during the development of our drug candidates are promising, such data may not be sufficient to support marketing approval by the FDA, EMA or comparable foreign authorities. Further, data generated during development can be interpreted in different ways, and the FDA, EMA or comparable foreign authorities may interpret such data in different ways than us or our collaborators. Our failure to adequately demonstrate the safety and efficacy of our drug candidates would prevent our receipt of regulatory approval, and ultimately the potential commercialization of these drug candidates. Since we do not currently possess the resources necessary to independently develop and commercialize the majority of our drug candidates, we may seek to enter into collaborative agreements to assist in the development and potential future commercialization of some or all of these assets as a component of our strategic plan. However, our discussions with potential collaborators may not lead to the establishment of collaborations on acceptable terms, if at all, or it may take longer than expected to establish new collaborations, leading to development and potential commercialization delays, which would adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations.

We may not be able to initiate or continue clinical trials for our product candidates if we are unable to locate and enroll a sufficient number of eligible patients to participate in these trials as required by the FDA or other regulatory authorities. Patient enrollment, a significant factor in the timing of clinical trials, is affected by many factors, including the size and nature of the patient population, the proximity of patients to clinical sites, the eligibility criteria for the trial, the design of the clinical trial, competing clinical trials and clinicians' and patients' perceptions as to the potential advantages of the drug being studied in relation to other available therapies, including any new drugs that may be approved for the indications we are investigating. Patient enrollment may also be affected by other factors outside of our control, such as overall economic conditions and volatility in the credit and financial markets, tariffs imposed by the U.S. and other countries, inflationary pressures, trade wars, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the war in Iran and other conflicts and instability in the Middle East, instability in Venezuela, uncertainty regarding Greenland and other geopolitical conflicts. For example, the COVID-19 pandemic previously negatively impacted our ability to recruit and enroll patients for our clinical trials, as they may have been reluctant or unable to visit clinical sites, or may have delayed seeking treatment for chronic conditions. If we fail to enroll and maintain the number of patients for which the clinical trial was designed, the statistical power of that clinical trial may be reduced, which would make it harder to demonstrate that the product candidate being tested in such clinical trial is safe and effective. Additionally, enrollment delays in our clinical trials may result in increased development costs for our product candidates, which would cause the value of our company to decline and limit our ability to obtain additional financing. Our inability to enroll a sufficient number of patients for any of our current or future clinical trials would result in significant delays or may require us to abandon one or more clinical trials altogether.

The results of preclinical studies and early clinical trials of product candidates may not be predictive of the results of later-stage clinical trials. Product candidates in later stages of clinical trials may fail to show the desired safety and efficacy results despite having progressed through preclinical studies and initial clinical trials. Many companies in the biopharmaceutical industry have suffered significant setbacks in advanced clinical trials due to adverse safety profiles or lack of efficacy, notwithstanding promising results in earlier studies. Similarly, our future clinical trial results may not be successful for these or other reasons. This drug candidate development risk is heightened by any changes in the planned clinical trials compared to the completed clinical trials. As product candidates are developed through preclinical to early to late stage clinical trials towards approval and commercialization, it is customary that various aspects of the development program, such as manufacturing and methods of administration, are altered along the way in an effort to optimize processes and results. While these types of changes are common and are intended to optimize the product candidates for late stage clinical trials, approval and commercialization, such changes carry the risk that they will not achieve these intended objectives. Any of these changes could make the results of our planned clinical trials or other future clinical trials we may initiate less predictable and could cause our product candidates to perform differently, including causing toxicities, which could delay completion of our clinical trials, delay approval of our product candidates and/or jeopardize our ability to commence product sales and generate revenues.

Delays in the commencement or completion of clinical trials could significantly impact our drug development costs. We do not know whether planned clinical trials will begin on time or be completed on schedule, if at all. The commencement of clinical trials can be delayed for a variety of reasons, including, but not limited to, delays related to: - obtaining regulatory approval to commence one or more clinical trials;- reaching agreement on acceptable terms with prospective CROs and clinical trial sites;- manufacturing sufficient quantities of a drug candidate or other materials necessary to conduct clinical trials, as well as receiving the supplies and materials needed to conduct our clinical trials, including interruptions in global shipping that may affect the transport of clinical materials;- unexpected changes in tariffs, trade barriers, price and exchange controls and other regulatory requirements, which may negatively impact the supply chain or cause other disruptions;- obtaining institutional review board or ethics committee approval to conduct one or more clinical trials at a prospective site;- recruiting and enrolling patients to participate in one or more clinical trials, especially as patients may be reluctant or unable to visit clinical sites, or may delay seeking treatment for chronic conditions;- failing to demonstrate statistical significance in early stage or Phase 2 clinical trials of our product candidates, which may impact the timing and design of late-stage clinical trials for such product candidates;- the failure of our collaborators to adequately resource our drug candidates due to their focus on other programs or as a result of general market conditions;- recruiting clinical site investigators, clinical site staff and potential closure of clinical facilities; and - changes in regulations, which may require us to change the ways in which our clinical trials are conducted. In addition, once a clinical trial has begun, it may be suspended or terminated by us, our collaborators, the institutional review boards or data safety monitoring boards charged with overseeing our clinical trials, the FDA, EMA or comparable foreign authorities due to a number of factors, including: - failure to conduct the clinical trial in accordance with regulatory requirements or clinical protocols;- inspection of the clinical trial operations or clinical trial site by the FDA, EMA or comparable foreign authorities resulting in the imposition of a clinical hold;- unforeseen safety issues; or - lack of adequate funding to continue the clinical trial. If we experience delays in the completion or termination of any clinical trial of our product candidates, the commercial prospects of our product candidates will be harmed, and our ability to commence product sales and generate product revenues from any of our product candidates will be delayed. In addition, any delays in completing our clinical trials will increase our costs and slow down our product candidate development and approval process. Delays in completing our clinical trials could also allow our competitors to obtain marketing approval before we do or shorten the patent protection period during which we may have the exclusive right to commercialize our product candidates. Any of these occurrences may harm our business, financial condition and prospects significantly. In addition, many of the factors that cause, or lead to, a delay in the commencement or completion of clinical trials may also ultimately lead to the denial of regulatory approval of our product candidates.

Because we have limited financial and managerial resources, we must focus on a limited number of research programs and product candidates and on specific indications. As a result, we may forego or delay pursuit of opportunities with other product candidates or for other indications that later prove to have greater commercial potential. Our resource allocation decisions may cause us to fail to capitalize on viable commercial products or profitable market opportunities. Our spending on current and future discovery and preclinical development programs and product candidates for specific indications may not yield any commercially viable products. In addition, our projections of both the number of people who have the targeted indications, as well as the subset of people with these disorders who have the potential to benefit from treatment with our product candidates, are based on estimates. If any of our estimates are inaccurate, the market opportunities for any of our product candidates could be significantly diminished and have an adverse material impact on our business. Additionally, the potentially addressable patient population for our product candidates may be limited, or may not be amenable to treatment with our product candidates.

We intend to continue to use our technology, including our licensed technology, knowledge and expertise to develop novel drugs to address some of the world's most widespread and costly chronic diseases. We intend to expand our existing pipeline of core assets by advancing drug compounds from current ongoing discovery programs into clinical development. However, the process of researching and discovering drug compounds is expensive, time-consuming and unpredictable. Data from our current preclinical programs may not support the clinical development of our lead compounds or other compounds from these programs, and we may not identify any additional drug compounds suitable for recommendation for clinical development. Moreover, any drug compounds we recommend for clinical development may not demonstrate, through preclinical studies, indications of safety and potential efficacy that would support advancement into clinical trials. Such findings would potentially impede our ability to maintain or expand our clinical development pipeline. Our ability to identify new drug compounds and advance them into clinical development also depends upon our ability to fund our research and development operations, and we cannot be certain that additional funding will be available on acceptable terms, or at all.