Phillips 66 (0KHZ) Risk Analysis
Risk Overview Q1, 2026
Source: the company's latest filing for the period ended Mar 31, 2026, filed Apr 29, 2026
Risk Change Over Time
Risk Highlights Q1, 2026
Risk Word Cloud
Risk Factors Full Breakdown - Total Risks 70
- Regulation - Risk 1Compliance with the EPA's Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) could adversely affect our financial results.
The EPA has implemented the RFS pursuant to the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. The RFS program sets annual renewable volume obligation (RVO) requirements for the quantity of renewable fuels, such as ethanol, that must be blended into motor fuels consumed in the United States. To provide certain flexibility in compliance options available to the industry, a Renewable Identification Number (RIN) is assigned to each gallon of renewable fuel produced in, or imported into, the United States. As a producer of petroleum-based motor fuels, we are obligated to blend renewable fuels into the products we produce at a rate that is at least commensurate to the EPA's RVO requirements and, to the extent we do not, we must purchase RINs in the open market to satisfy our obligation under the RFS program. We are exposed to the volatility in the market price of RINs. We cannot predict the future prices of RINs. RINs prices are dependent upon a variety of factors, including EPA regulations, the availability of RINs for purchase, and levels of transportation fuels produced, which can vary significantly from quarter to quarter. If sufficient RINs are unavailable for purchase, if we have to pay a significantly higher price for RINs, if we purchase RINs that are ultimately determined to be invalid, or if we are otherwise unable to meet the EPA's RVO requirements, including because the EPA mandates a blending quantity of renewable fuel that exceeds the amount that is commercially feasible to blend into motor fuel (a situation commonly referred to as "the blend wall"), our operations could be materially adversely impacted, up to and including a reduction in produced motor fuel for sale in the United States. These factors could result in a material adverse effect on our financial position, results of operations or cash flows.
- Regulation - Risk 2Increased regulation of the fossil fuel industry, particularly with respect to hydraulic fracturing, could result in reductions or delays in the production of crude oil and natural gas, which could adversely impact our results of operations.
Most of the crude oil and natural gas production of our Midstream segment's customers is being produced from unconventional oil shale reservoirs. These reservoirs require hydraulic fracturing completion processes to release the hydrocarbons from the rock so they can flow through casing to the surface. Hydraulic fracturing involves the injection of water, sand and chemicals under pressure into a formation to stimulate hydrocarbon production. The EPA, as well as several state agencies, commenced studies and/or convened hearings regarding the potential environmental impacts of hydraulic fracturing activities. At the same time, certain environmental groups have suggested that additional laws may be needed to more closely and uniformly regulate the hydraulic fracturing process, and legislation has been proposed to provide for such regulation. In addition, some communities have adopted measures to ban hydraulic fracturing in their communities. Also, certain interest groups have proposed ballot initiatives and constitutional amendments designed to restrict crude oil and natural gas development. If ballot initiatives, local, state, or national restrictions or prohibitions are adopted and result in more stringent limitations on the production and development of crude oil and natural gas, we may incur significant costs to comply with the requirements, and producers may experience delays or curtailment in the permitting or pursuit of exploration, development or production activities. Such compliance costs and delays, curtailments, limitations or prohibitions could have a material adverse effect on our business, prospects, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity. In addition to these proposed ballot initiatives and constitutional amendments, municipalities, such as the City of Los Angeles, have already enacted or contemplate enacting complete or partial bans on oil and gas exploration and production activities. If legislative and regulatory initiatives cause a material decrease in the drilling of new wells and related servicing activities, it may reduce crude oil, natural gas and NGL supplies, negatively affecting the volume of products available to our Midstream segment and increasing feedstock prices for our Chemicals and Refining segments, resulting in a material adverse effect on our financial position, results of operations and cash flows.
- Regulation - Risk 3Increased regulation of the fossil fuel industry, particularly with respect to hydraulic fracturing, could result in reductions or delays in the production of crude oil and natural gas, which could adversely impact our results of operations.
Most of the crude oil and natural gas production of our Midstream segment's customers is being produced from unconventional oil shale reservoirs. These reservoirs require hydraulic fracturing completion processes to release the hydrocarbons from the rock so they can flow through casing to the surface. Hydraulic fracturing involves the injection of water, sand and chemicals under pressure into a formation to stimulate hydrocarbon production. The EPA, as well as several state agencies, commenced studies and/or convened hearings regarding the potential environmental impacts of hydraulic fracturing activities. At the same time, certain environmental groups have suggested that additional laws may be needed to more closely and uniformly regulate the hydraulic fracturing process, and legislation has been proposed to provide for such regulation. In addition, some communities have adopted measures to ban hydraulic fracturing in their communities. Also, certain interest groups have proposed ballot initiatives and constitutional amendments designed to restrict crude oil and natural gas development. If ballot initiatives, local, state, or national restrictions or prohibitions are adopted and result in more stringent limitations on the production and development of crude oil and natural gas, we may incur significant costs to comply with the requirements, and producers may experience delays or curtailment in the permitting or pursuit of exploration, development or production activities. Such compliance costs and delays, curtailments, limitations or prohibitions could have a material adverse effect on our business, prospects, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity. In addition to these proposed ballot initiatives and constitutional amendments, municipalities, such as the City of Los Angeles, have already enacted or contemplate enacting complete or partial bans on oil and gas exploration and production activities. If legislative and regulatory initiatives cause a material decrease in the drilling of new wells and related servicing activities, it may reduce crude oil, natural gas and NGL supplies, negatively affecting the volume of products available to our Midstream segment and increasing feedstock prices for our Chemicals and Refining segments, resulting in a material adverse effect on our financial position, results of operations and cash flows.
- Regulation - Risk 4Compliance with the EPA's Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) could adversely affect our financial results.
The EPA has implemented the RFS pursuant to the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. The RFS program sets annual renewable volume obligation (RVO) requirements for the quantity of renewable fuels, such as ethanol, that must be blended into motor fuels consumed in the United States. To provide certain flexibility in compliance options available to the industry, a Renewable Identification Number (RIN) is assigned to each gallon of renewable fuel produced in, or imported into, the United States. As a producer of petroleum-based motor fuels, we are obligated to blend renewable fuels into the products we produce at a rate that is at least commensurate to the EPA's RVO requirements and, to the extent we do not, we must purchase RINs in the open market to satisfy our obligation under the RFS program. We are exposed to the volatility in the market price of RINs. We cannot predict the future prices of RINs. RINs prices are dependent upon a variety of factors, including EPA regulations, the availability of RINs for purchase, and levels of transportation fuels produced, which can vary significantly from quarter to quarter. If sufficient RINs are unavailable for purchase, if we have to pay a significantly higher price for RINs, if we purchase RINs that are ultimately determined to be invalid, or if we are otherwise unable to meet the EPA's RVO requirements, including because the EPA mandates a blending quantity of renewable fuel that exceeds the amount that is commercially feasible to blend into motor fuel (a situation commonly referred to as "the blend wall"), our operations could be materially adversely impacted, up to and including a reduction in produced motor fuel for sale in the United States. These factors could result in a material adverse effect on our financial position, results of operations or cash flows.
See a full breakdown of risk according to category and subcategory. The list starts with the category with the most risk. Click on subcategories to read relevant extracts from the most recent report.