Green Plains (0J0P) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Management guided to roughly 95% full‑year capacity utilization (Q2 averaged nearly 90% with ~161 million gallons produced and >54 million bushels ground) and expects utilization to recover into Q3 toward that 95% target; Q2 results included adjusted EBITDA of $93.3M (up from $71.5M in Q1 and $16.4M in Q2 2025), net income attributable to Green Plains of $67.1M or $0.83 per diluted share, gross margin of $113M, carbon platform net EBITDA of ~ $59M in Q2 ($55.2M in Q1; H1 carbon EBITDA ≈ $114M), and operating cash flow of nearly $87M with cash > $243M and total debt ≈ $484M at quarter end. They noted receipt of $41M related to 2025 45Z credits but have not monetized 2026 credits, Q2 SG&A ≈ $21M (FY SG&A target ≈ $90M), interest expense $8M in Q2 (FY ≈ $35M), depreciation & amortization $23M, CapEx ~$11M in Q2 with sustaining CapEx expected near $25M for the year, corn oil yields were ~7% above normal in the quarter, and U.S. ethanol exports are forecasted around 2.4B (2.5B possible), while reiterating priorities to use free cash flow for sustaining capital, debt reduction (leveraging carbon cash flows to lower leverage beyond 2029), targeted reinvestment and disciplined growth.