First National (FXNC) AI Stock Analysis

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First National

(NASDAQ:FXNC)

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Rating:78Outperform

Price Target:$36.00▲(18.93% Upside)

Action:upgraded

Date:08/17/26

First National (FXNC) earns a score of 78, reflecting strong financial performance with robust revenue growth and a solid balance sheet. Positive technical indicators show the stock is in an uptrend with healthy momentum. Valuation is reasonable, and the recent dividend declaration underscores management's confidence. While cash flow experienced a temporary dip, the company's overall fundamentals remain sound.

Positive Factors

Strong Revenue and ProfitabilitySharp TTM revenue growth and healthy margins indicate stronger earnings capacity and expanding operating scale. Although results have varied by cycle, the recovery from 2024 supports a durable improvement in the bank’s core profitability.

Negative Factors

Inconsistent Cash GenerationAlthough TTM operating cash flow was about $18.2M and free cash flow about $15.1M, the prior negative year and subsequent decline show uneven cash conversion. This limits confidence that reported earnings will consistently translate into financial flexibility.

First National (FXNC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $273.72M
Dividend Yield: 2.25%
Average Volume (3M): 24.70K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.7
Beta (1Y): 0.65
Revenue Growth: 0.88%
EPS Growth: 103.52%
Country: US
Employees: 308
Sector: Financial
Sector Strength: 68
Industry: Banks - Regional

First National Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

First National Corporation serves as the holding company for First Bank, which offers a diverse array of financial solutions and commercial banking services. It caters to a broad clientele across Virginia, including individuals, small and medium-size...

How the Company Makes Money

FXNC primarily makes money through its banking subsidiary by earning net interest income and generating noninterest income. Net interest income is the core driver: the bank collects interest and fees on loans and other interest-earning assets (e.g.,...

First National Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue has more than doubled over five years, with net profit margin reaching 18.5% TTM. Balance sheet is strong with low leverage (debt/equity 0.22) and ROE of 11.6%. Cash flow dipped temporarily but recovered. Overall solid fundamentals.

Income Statement

75Positive

Balance Sheet

85Very Positive

Cash Flow

70Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	118.80M	112.20M	88.27M	67.88M	60.67M	46.17M
Gross Profit	93.68M	83.07M	56.55M	47.42M	55.01M	44.52M
EBITDA	48.02M	26.47M	10.45M	13.42M	22.26M	14.35M
Net Income	23.03M	17.70M	6.97M	9.62M	16.80M	10.36M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.07B	2.04B	2.01B	1.42B	1.37B	1.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	244.66M	177.80M	164.50M	240.02M	229.82M	465.50M
Total Debt	42.82M	42.59M	30.45M	64.28M	14.27M	19.27M
Total Liabilities	1.88B	1.85B	1.84B	1.30B	1.26B	1.27B
Stockholders Equity	195.55M	186.20M	166.53M	116.27M	108.36M	117.04M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	20.64M	21.01M	-25.50M	14.52M	25.59M	7.03M
Operating Cash Flow	23.06M	25.19M	-22.20M	16.39M	26.77M	7.87M
Investing Cash Flow	-73.67M	-29.41M	136.83M	-34.34M	-120.14M	-126.30M
Financing Cash Flow	28.64M	2.26M	-38.91M	38.20M	-15.72M	167.15M

First National Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative

Last Price30.27

Price Trends

50DMA30.30Negative

100DMA30.36Negative

200DMA28.85Positive

Market Momentum

MACD0.10Positive

RSI48.87Neutral

STOCH26.54Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FXNC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 30.27 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.40, below the 50-day MA of 30.30, and above the 200-day MA of 28.85, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FXNC.

First National Risk Analysis

First National disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. First National reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

3 New Risks

1.Combining Touchstone into the Company may be more difficult, costly or time-consuming than we expect.Q3, 2024

2.The Company may not be able to effectively integrate the operations of Touchstone into the Bank.Q3, 2024

3.Combining Touchstone into the Company may be more difficult, costly or time-consuming than we expect.Q2, 2024

First National Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

FXNC against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VABK	81Outperform	$290.98M	10.93	14.18%	2.67%	7.74%	49.05%
FRAF	79Outperform	$314.51M	11.27	15.56%	1.93%	7.25%	76.40%
FXNC	78Outperform	$274.43M	11.71	12.06%	2.25%	0.88%	103.52%
EFSI	76Outperform	$249.01M	13.90	9.27%	2.70%	17.02%	47.37%
LCNB	75Outperform	$280.25M	11.14	8.95%	4.49%	-1.78%	5.15%
OPBK	70Outperform	$224.44M	7.46	12.79%	3.61%	7.48%	28.18%
Sector *	68Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

FXNC and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
FXNC	First National Corp	30.27	7.35	32.05%
LCNB	Lcnb Corporation	19.58	5.09	35.17%
OPBK	Op Bancorp	14.96	2.76	22.60%
FRAF	Franklin Financial Services	69.78	22.91	48.87%
EFSI	Eagle Financial Services	46.00	12.19	36.05%
VABK	Virginia National Bankshares Corporation	54.00	15.65	40.79%

First National Corporate Events

Dividends

First National Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend for Shareholders

Positive

Aug 13, 2026

On August 12, 2026, First National’s board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.17 per common share, reinforcing the company’s practice of returning capital to shareholders. The dividend will be paid on September 11, 2026, to shareholders of reco...

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 17, 2026

First National AI Stock Analysis