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Liberty Media Liberty Formula One (FWONA) AI Stock Analysis

FWONA

Liberty Media Liberty Formula One

(NASDAQ:FWONA)

Select Model
Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:$95.00â–²(11.59% Upside)
Action:downgraded
Date:09/06/26

FWONA scores above average primarily on strong financial quality (healthy margins, strong free cash flow, and very low reported TTM leverage), but the overall score is held back by weak near-term technical momentum, a high P/E valuation, and earnings-call near-term pressure from calendar-driven revenue/OIBDA declines and leverage sensitivity to race timing.

Positive Factors
Strong cash generationRobust operating and free cash flow gives the Formula One Group internal funding capacity for investment, debt service, and strategic initiatives. High cash conversion also supports earnings quality and provides resilience when race timing temporarily affects reported revenue.
Negative Factors
F1 revenue and OIBDA contractionThe reported decline shows that F1’s financial performance remains sensitive to race scheduling and season-based revenue recognition. Even if timing-related, weaker revenue and OIBDA can pressure cash planning, operating leverage, and near-term debt metrics across the business.

Liberty Media Liberty Formula One Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Operating Income by Segment

-$200.00M-$100.00M$0.00$100.00M$200.00M$300.00MSep 23Dec 23Mar 24Jun 24Sep 24Dec 24Mar 25Jun 25Sep 25Dec 25Mar 26
Chart Insights
Data provided by:The Fly

Liberty Media Liberty Formula One (FWONA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%FWONA-6.89%SPY+11.79%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
$21.33B
Dividend Yield
―
Average Volume (3M)
186.23K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
46.3
Beta (1Y)
0.65
Revenue Growth
12.23%
EPS Growth
47.39%
Country
US
Employees
1,674
Sector
Communication Services
Sector Strength
60
Industry
Entertainment

Liberty Media Liberty Formula One Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Formula One Group is involved in the motorsports industry, conducting business both in the United States and globally. Its primary function is holding the commercial rights to the Formula One World Championship, an extensive motor racing series that...

How the Company Makes Money

The Formula One Group primarily makes money by commercializing the Formula 1 World Championship across several major revenue streams. (1) Race promotion fees: F1 enters into agreements with race promoters (often local organizers and/or government-bac...

Liberty Media Liberty Formula One Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026(Q2-2026)|% Change Since:-3.60%|Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call SentimentNeutral

The call presents a mix of meaningful operational and commercial progress — strong audience and engagement growth (digital, social, attendance), sponsorship and licensing momentum, strategic deals (Las Vegas extension, MotoGP team/manufacturer agreements), and prudent liquidity/debt refinancing actions — counterbalanced by short-term financial impacts driven primarily by calendar timing and recognition issues at F1 that produced material year-to-date revenue (-15%) and adjusted OIBDA (-30%) declines, modestly higher SG&A and a small uptick in net leverage (3.4x). Management frames the declines as timing/calendar-related and highlights underlying growth trends; accordingly, the positives and negatives are roughly balanced in significance.

Positive Updates

Strong Digital Viewership Growth on Apple TV
Formula One viewership on Apple TV is up year-over-year with total hours watched up 13%; Apple distribution attracting a younger and more female U.S. audience and amplifying discovery and engagement.

Negative Updates

Year-to-Date Revenue Decline at Formula One
F1 year-to-date revenue declined 15% driven primarily by calendar variance and recognition timing (8 of 22 races staged year-to-date versus 11 of 24 prior year; season-based revenue recognized ~36% vs ~46% prior period).

Company Guidance

Liberty guided to a 23‑race 2026 calendar (Bahrain rescheduled to Malaysia) with season‑based revenue costs and true‑ups to begin accruing in Q3 and an expectation to return to a full 24‑race calendar next season; F1’s Q2 race count fell 44% (5 vs. 9) and YTD race count fell 27% (8 vs. 11), driving YTD revenue down ~15% and adjusted OIBDA down ~30% as only ~36% of season‑based revenue has been recognized (8/22 races) versus ~46% prior year (11/24). Management said team payments were 61.7% of pre‑team‑share adjusted OIBDA YTD with an expected ~200 basis‑point improvement for the full year and relatively stable payout percentages thereafter, Liberty ended the quarter with ~ $1.5B cash/liquid investments (F1 $1.0B, MotoGP $142M), ~ $5.0B total debt (F1 $3.3B, MotoGP $1.0B, corporate $497M), undrawn revolvers (F1 $500M, MotoGP €100M) and net leverage of ~3.4x, and noted MotoGP (closed July 3, 2025) has manufacturer/team agreements through 2031, reported YTD revenue and adjusted OIBDA growth on a constant‑currency basis, and completed debt repricing (EUR 720M TLB, USD 200M TLA, EUR 100M revolver) with expected future margin reductions as the business delevers.

Liberty Media Liberty Formula One Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are strong: solid TTM profitability (EBITDA margin ~31%, EBIT margin ~22%, net margin ~11%), a very strong TTM balance sheet with extremely low debt-to-equity (~0.01), and robust cash generation (TTM operating cash flow ~$1.27B; free cash flow ~$1.12B; FCF ~88% of net income). Key risks are the TTM revenue decline (~-8.6%) after prior growth and the notable leverage shift versus 2025 that warrants monitoring.

Income Statement

74Positive

Balance Sheet

83Very Positive

Cash Flow

79Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue4.34B4.48B3.65B3.22B2.57B2.14B
Gross Profit1.42B1.12B1.17B982.00M823.00M647.00M
EBITDA1.40B1.15B577.00M794.00M762.00M363.00M
Net Income461.00M555.00M-30.00M185.00M558.00M-190.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets15.88B15.40B11.76B10.27B11.02B11.66B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.47B1.05B2.63B1.41B1.73B2.07B
Total Debt4.92B5.12B2.99B2.91B2.95B3.63B
Total Liabilities7.50B6.95B4.37B3.85B4.08B4.72B
Stockholders Equity7.62B7.76B7.39B6.42B6.91B6.34B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow786.00M751.00M492.00M193.00M243.00M464.00M
Operating Cash Flow915.00M870.00M567.00M619.00M534.00M481.00M
Investing Cash Flow-3.16B-3.20B-292.00M-683.00M394.00M-600.00M
Financing Cash Flow221.00M408.00M951.00M-435.00M-1.27B512.00M

Liberty Media Liberty Formula One Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNeutral
Last Price85.13

Price Trends

50DMA87.18Negative
100DMA88.28Negative
200DMA84.37Positive

Market Momentum

MACD-0.83Negative
RSI50.57Neutral
STOCH83.66Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FWONA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 85.13 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 84.72, below the 50-day MA of 87.18, and above the 200-day MA of 84.37, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.83 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.66 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for FWONA.

Liberty Media Liberty Formula One Risk Analysis

Liberty Media Liberty Formula One disclosed 106 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Liberty Media Liberty Formula One reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Higher RiskSector Avg.Lower RiskFinance & CorporateTech & InnovationLegal & RegulatoryProductionAbility to SellMacro & Political
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

Liberty Media Liberty Formula One Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)

Financial Indicators

FWONA against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
DISDIS77Outperform$191.56B22.837.87%1.35%5.31%-23.96%
FOXFOX72Outperform$25.12B14.4514.74%1.01%5.07%-20.95%
LYVLYV70Outperform$41.92B-161.7273.28%―10.75%-146.20%
TKOTKO66Neutral$34.20B59.836.41%1.74%35.92%15.44%
FWONAFWONA66Neutral$23.00B46.275.94%―12.23%47.39%
Sector *60Neutral$48.67B4.58-11.27%4.14%2.83%-41.78%

* Communication Services Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-20%-10%0%10%20%FWONALYVDISTKOFOXDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
FWONA and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
FWONALiberty Media Corporation Series A Liberty Formula One85.13-5.50-6.07%
LYVLive Nation Entertainment177.8928.0518.72%
DISWalt Disney Company110.940.420.38%
TKOTKO Group Holdings, Inc.180.68-4.10-2.22%
FOXFox Corporation Class B56.20-0.53-0.94%

Liberty Media Liberty Formula One Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes

Liberty Media Appoints New Chief Legal Officer, Advisor

Positive
Sep 2, 2026

On September 2, 2026, Liberty Media Corporation announced that Philip J. Boeckman will become Chief Legal Officer effective October 1, 2026, overseeing the company’s legal functions. Boeckman, a longtime partner at Cravath, Swaine & Moore L...

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing

Liberty Formula One Completes $690 Million Convertible Notes Offering

Positive
Aug 13, 2026

On August 13, 2026, Liberty Media Corporation closed a private offering of $690 million in 2.375% senior convertible notes due 2032, sold to institutional buyers and convertible into its Series C FWONK shares at an initial price of about $138.68 per...

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing

Liberty Formula One announces new convertible notes offering

Neutral
Aug 10, 2026

On August 10, 2026, Liberty Media Corporation announced a proposed private offering of $600 million in convertible senior notes due 2032, with an option for initial purchasers to buy up to an additional $90 million in notes. The notes will be senior...

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing

MotoGP Unit Reprices Loans, Reduces Net Debt Load

Positive
Jun 18, 2026

On June 17, 2026, Liberty Media said its Spanish subsidiary MotoGP Sports Entertainment Group closed a repricing of its first lien Term Loan B, Term Loan A and multicurrency revolving credit facility, cutting the Term Loan B principal from €800...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Sep 06, 2026