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First Solar (FSLR) Risk Analysis
Risk Overview Q4, 2025
Risk Change Over Time
- Taxation & Government Incentives - Risk 1The modification, reduction, elimination, or expiration of government subsidies, economic incentives, eligibility limitations, tax incentives, renewable energy targets, and other support for on-grid solar electricity applications, or the impact of other public policies, such as tariffs or other trade remedies imposed on solar cells and modules or related raw materials or equipment, have, and in the future could, negatively impact demand and/or price levels for our solar modules and limit our growth or lead to a reduction in our net sales or increase our costs, thereby adversely impacting our operating results.
Although we believe that solar energy will experience widespread adoption in those applications where it competes economically with traditional forms of energy without any incentive programs, in certain markets our net sales and profits remain subject to variability based on the availability and size of government subsidies and economic incentives. Federal, state, and local governmental bodies in many countries have provided subsidies in the form of feed-in-tariff structures, rebates, tax incentives, and other incentives to end users, distributors, system integrators, and manufacturers of PV solar products. Many of these incentive programs expire, phase down over time, require renewal by the applicable authority, or may be amended. To the extent government incentive programs are reduced earlier than previously expected, are changed retroactively, or are not renewed, such changes have and could negatively impact demand and/or price levels for our solar modules, lead to a reduction in our net sales, and adversely impact our operating results. Current regulatory policies, or any future changes or threatened changes to such policies, may subject us to significant risks, including the following: - a reduction or removal of certain energy programs and initiatives and the incentives they provide may diminish the market for future solar energy off-take agreements, slow the retirement of aging fossil fuel plants, including the retirements of coal generation plants, and reduce the ability for solar project developers to compete for off-take agreements, which may reduce PV solar module sales;- any limitations on the value or availability to manufacturers or potential investors of tax incentives that benefit solar energy production, sales, or projects, such as the Section 45X advanced manufacturing production credit, ITC, and PTC, as seen in the accelerated termination of certain energy tax credits under the "One Big Beautiful Bill" the U.S. President signed into law on July 4, 2025, could result in reducing such manufacturers' or investors' economic returns and could cause a reduction in the availability of financing, thereby reducing demand for PV solar modules;- any incentives contingent upon domestic production of modules, such as tax incentives set forth under the IRA, could limit our ability to sell modules manufactured in certain foreign jurisdictions, which may adversely impact our module average selling prices and could require us to record significant charges to earnings should we determine that the manufacturing facilities and equipment in such foreign jurisdictions are impaired; and - any effort to overturn federal and state laws, regulations, or policies that are supportive of solar energy generation or that remove costs or other limitations on other types of electricity generation that compete with solar energy projects could negatively impact our ability to compete with traditional forms of electricity generation and materially and adversely affect our business. Application of trade laws may also adversely impact, either directly or indirectly, our operating results; for example, by impacting our customers' project costs, profitability, and their demand for our modules; or by impacting our own costs or disrupting our manufacturing or supply chains, and consequently negatively impacting demand and/or price levels for our solar modules, reducing our net sales, or affecting potential profitability of fulfilling customer contracts. We are therefore potentially subject to various risks, which include the following: - any tariffs that reduce the profitability of contracts, whereby the cost of tariffs exceeds the amount able to be, or willing to be, absorbed by either us or the customer under the provisions of the contract and may lead to us or the customer cancelling such contract, potentially resulting in the reduction of future revenue, the loss of the contractual right to a termination payment from the customer, and potentially the required return of a previously received customer down payment;- any reciprocal or other tariffs may place burdens on our customers' supply chains exclusive of module import costs, including through increased costs of trackers, inverters, transformers, and other imported equipment, which are often heavily dependent on Chinese supply chains. These and other costs could result in an inability for certain projects to generate profitable returns, and may lead to the delay or abandonment of such projects, thereby reducing or removing demand for currently contracted PV module sales; and - any reduction in our ability to profitably import modules from our international manufacturing locations as a result of tariffs or other trade laws could lead to us significantly reducing capacity utilization at certain international manufacturing facilities. Such underutilization may lead to potential impairment of certain international equipment and facilities and may also increase our selling costs and reduce our competitiveness in the market, thereby reducing demand for our modules. In some instances, the application of trade laws is currently beneficial to us, and changes in their application could have an adverse impact. The overall impact of trade laws on our business depends on multiple factors, including their duration, their scope and potential expansion thereof, enforcement, retaliatory measures by impacted exporting countries, inflationary effects and broader macroeconomic responses, changes to consumer purchasing behavior, and the effectiveness of our responses in managing these impacts. Recent developments include the following: - United States - IEEPA Tariffs. In 2025, the U.S. President imposed a series of tariffs on nearly all U.S. trading partners pursuant to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 ("IEEPA"). As it pertains to the countries where we manufacture solar modules, IEEPA tariffs applied to Vietnam (20%), India (25%), and Malaysia (19%). In August 2025, the U.S. President had imposed an additional 25% tariff on India over its purchases of Russian oil, resulting in an overall rate of 50%. On February 20, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled the IEEPA tariffs unlawful. President Trump responded immediately by revoking the IEEPA tariff actions and imposing new global tariffs pursuant to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 ("Section 122"), which provides for tariffs up to 15% for a period of no more than 150 days. The additional, higher tariffs on imports from these countries has increased the costs of our solar modules manufactured in these countries with respect to our U.S. market. Further, such circumstances have and may continue to impact our ability to sell certain modules into the United States and therefore have and may continue to also impact the operational status of certain of our international manufacturing facilities. As a result, our operating results have and may continue to be adversely impacted by these tariffs. - United States - Additional Tariffs on Certain Chinese Imports. The United States currently imposes tariffs on various articles imported from China, including tariffs of 50% on crystalline silicon solar cells and tariffs of 25% on modules, based on an investigation under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. The U.S. President imposed an additional 10% tariff on all imports from China, related to the national security threat posed by China's trade in fentanyl and other illegal narcotics and a 10% reciprocal tariff on China, effective until November 10, 2026, under IEEPA. On February 20, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled the IEEPA tariffs unlawful, and President Trump immediately revoked the IEEPA tariff actions, including the additional tariffs on China, and replaced them with a new global tariff pursuant to Section 122. Our operating results could be adversely impacted by revocation of the IEEPA tariffs on China. - United States - Port Fees on Certain Chinese Vessel Operators and Chinese Vessel Owners. On April 17, 2025, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative published a notice of final action based on an investigation under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 into China's targeting of the maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors for dominance. The action imposes new port fees on Chinese vessel operators and/or Chinese vessel owners as well as on non-Chinese operators of Chinese-origin vessels beginning on October 14, 2025. The level of fees is on a sliding scale per net ton or, in the case of non-Chinese operators, the higher of a net ton or container-based fee. Effective November 10, 2025, however, the United States suspended implementation of such action for one year. Once implemented, such fees may impact our logistics services and consequently impact our profitability and results of operations. - United States - Tariffs on Certain Foreign-imported Aluminum, Steel, Copper, Timber and Lumber. Effective June 4, 2025, the U.S. President increased tariffs on imported aluminum and steel articles under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 ("Section 232") from 25% to 50%. Effective August 1, 2025, the U.S. President imposed tariffs of 50% on copper under Section 232. Effective October 14, 2025, the U.S. President imposed tariffs of 10% on imported softwood timber and lumber products under Section 232. Such tariffs and policies, or any other U.S. or global trade remedies or other trade barriers, may directly or indirectly affect U.S. or global markets for solar energy and our business, financial condition, and results of operations. - United States - Potential Tariffs on Processed Critical Minerals and Derivative Products, Polysilicon, Robotics and Industrial Machinery. On April 22, 2025, the U.S. Secretary of Commerce initiated an investigation to determine the effects on the national security of imports of processed critical minerals, as well as their derivative products, under Section 232; on July 1, 2025, the U.S. Secretary of Commerce initiated a Section 232 investigation to determine whether imports of polysilicon and its derivatives impair U.S. national security; and on September 2, 2025, the U.S. Secretary of Commerce initiated an investigation to determine the effects on the national security of imports of robotics and industrial machinery under Section 232. The scope of these investigations is potentially broad and may cover materials and equipment used in solar module manufacturing. These investigations may result in the imposition of tariffs or import restrictions, or may remove barriers on the imports of competitor products and materials, all of which could negatively impact demand and/or price levels for our solar modules and limit our growth, lead to a reduction in our net sales, or increase our costs, thereby adversely impacting our operating results. - United States - Antidumping and Countervailing Duties on Certain Imported Crystalline Silicon PV Cells and Modules. The United States currently imposes AD/CVDs on certain imported crystalline silicon PV cells and modules from China and Taiwan. Such AD/CVDs can change over time pursuant to annual administrative reviews conducted by the U.S. Department of Commerce ("USDOC"), and a decline in duty rates or USDOC failure to fully enforce U.S. AD/CVD laws could have an adverse impact on our operating results. In August 2023, the USDOC issued final affirmative circumvention rulings, finding that solar modules completed in Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam using parts and components produced in China circumvent the pre-existing AD/CVD orders on China. Such duties apply to circumventing imports on or after June 6, 2024, as well as any circumventing imports prior to that date that were not used or installed on or before December 3, 2024. Our operating results could be adversely impacted if the USDOC and other U.S. government agencies do not enforce the affirmative circumvention rulings as expected or if pending litigation challenges result in a modification of the rulings. Conversely, effective enforcement could positively impact our operating results. - United States - Antidumping and Countervailing Duties on Certain Traded Solar Products. In April 2024, the American Alliance for Solar Manufacturing Trade Committee, which includes First Solar, filed a set of AD/CVD petitions with the USDOC and the U.S. International Trade Commission ("USITC") to impose duties on certain unfairly traded solar products from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. On April 21, 2025, the USDOC announced final determinations in the AD/CVD investigations. Final AD/CVD rates ranged from de minimis to over 3,400%, depending on the particular foreign producer. On June 9, 2025, the USITC notified USDOC of its final affirmative determinations in the AD/CVD investigations. AD/CVD orders, including the assessment of AD/CVDs and suspension of liquidation of such products, were issued on June 9, 2025. On July 17, 2025, the Alliance for American Solar Manufacturing and Trade filed another set of AD/CVD petitions with the USDOC and the USITC to impose duties on unfairly traded crystalline silicon solar products from India, Indonesia, and Laos. In August 2025, the USITC issued affirmative preliminary determinations. The USDOC is expected to issue its preliminary countervailing duty determinations in February 2026 and preliminary antidumping duty determinations in April 2026. - India - Domestic and Foreign Imports. The Approved List of Models and Manufacturers ("ALMM") was introduced in 2021 as a non-tariff barrier to incentivize domestic manufacturing of PV modules by approving the list of models and manufacturers who can participate in certain solar development projects. The ALMM is approved by the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy ("MNRE"), and any modifications to the ALMM and its application may affect future investments in solar module manufacturing in India. In April 2024, the government of India reimposed the ALMM, thereby requiring solar project developers to procure qualifying modules from companies on the list, which includes our Indian manufacturing facility. Also in April 2024, the ALMM was amended to include specific minimum conversion efficiency thresholds for CdTe solar technologies starting at 18% for solar lighting, 18.5% for rooftop applications, and 19% for utility-scale applications. In December 2024, the ALMM was amended to require nearly all solar development projects to use PV modules that contain domestically manufactured solar cells, which is expected to be effective for such projects completed on or after June 2026; in August 2025, the relevant list of qualifying entities was released, which included First Solar as an approved manufacturer. In September 2025, the MNRE released draft amendments that would require nearly all solar development projects to use PV modules that contain domestically manufactured wafers, which is expected to be effective for such projects completed on or after June 2028; the proposed list was released at that time, which included First Solar as an approved manufacturer. In November 2025, the MNRE released a draft proposal that would increase the minimum efficiency of PV modules for manufacturers to be included in the ALMM beginning in 2027. If enacted, the proposal would negatively impact our ability to sell modules within the Indian market. Our operating results could also be adversely impacted if the ALMM requirements are significantly relaxed to allow modules, solar cells, or certain other key module components to be imported from other countries. - India - Import Duty Tariffs. In April 2022, the Indian government began imposing import duty tariffs of 40% on solar modules and 25% on solar cells. In connection with such April 2022 tariffs, the Indian government also implemented a regulation mandating that any solar project with federal utility, state utility, or commercial and industrial off-takers that interconnects through government owned transmission lines only use solar modules from manufacturers included in the ALMM, and a requirement that all federal procurement of solar modules be only from cells and modules produced domestically. However, in February 2025, the Indian government began imposing import duty tariffs of 20% each on solar modules and cells and levied additional tax on certain commercial agricultural production, which included a tax of 20% on solar modules and 7.5% on solar cells. Therefore, the aggregate impact on the import of solar modules and cells is 40% and 27.5%, respectively. These examples show that established markets for PV solar development face uncertainties arising from policy, regulatory, and governmental actions. While the expected potential of the markets we are targeting is significant, policy promulgation and market development are especially vulnerable to governmental inertia, political instability, changing government policy and priorities, the imposition or lowering of trade remedies and other trade barriers, geopolitical risk, fossil fuel subsidization, potentially stringent localization requirements, and limited available infrastructure. Any negative impacts from changes in policy, regulatory, and governmental actions could negatively affect our business, reduce our net sales, profitability and/or market share, and consequently affect our results of operations, prospects, and financial condition.
- Taxation & Government Incentives - Risk 2We have received and expect to continue to receive certain financial benefits as a result of tax incentives enacted by the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 and amended by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025. If these financial benefits vary significantly from our assumptions, our business, financial condition, and results of operations could be adversely affected.
In August 2022, the previous U.S. President signed the IRA into law, which was intended to accelerate the country's ongoing transition to clean energy. The provisions of the IRA are generally effective for tax years beginning after 2022. We expect to qualify for the advanced manufacturing production credit under Section 45X of the IRC, which provides certain specified benefits for solar modules and solar module components manufactured in the United States and sold to third parties. For eligible components, the credit is equal to (i) $12 per square meter for a PV wafer, (ii) 4 cents multiplied by the capacity of a PV cell in watts, and (iii) 7 cents multiplied by the capacity of a PV module in watts. Based on the current form factor of our modules, we believe we qualify for a credit of approximately 17 cents per watt for each module produced in the United States and sold to a third party. Such credit may be refundable by the IRS or transferable to a third party and is available from 2023 to 2032, subject to phase down beginning in 2030. For example, during 2025, 2024, and 2023, we entered into various agreements for the sales of Section 45X tax credits generated in 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively. For further information, see Item 7. "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations – Liquidity and Capital Resources." However, there is no assurance that future sales of tax credits will be available to us on similar or alternative terms or at all. In connection with the sale of Section 45X tax credits, we agree to indemnify the purchasers for certain losses they may suffer, including as a result of any inability to claim all or any portion of the Section 45X tax credits sold, subject to certain exceptions and limitations. If we are required to make an indemnification payment to a purchaser of a tax credit it may have a material impact on our results of operations and financial condition. Furthermore, the current U.S. presidential administration and control of the U.S. Congress present uncertainty as to the continued availability of certain benefits. For example, on January 20, 2025, the U.S. President issued the executive order entitled, "Unleashing American Energy," which, among other things, indicated a lack of support for federal funding of certain solar and solar-related projects. Further, on July 4, 2025, the U.S. President signed H.R.1 into law, commonly referred to as the "One Big Beautiful Bill," which significantly curtails the availability of certain energy tax credits. Certain developments to technical guidance and regulations include the following: - In March 2024, the U.S. Treasury Department and the IRS issued final regulations on the direct payment election under Section 6417 of the IRC. The final regulations apply to tax years ending on or after March 11, 2024, but taxpayers may choose to apply the rules in the final regulations in taxable years ending before March 11, 2024, provided the final regulations are applied in their entirety and in a consistent manner. The final regulations mostly adopted and confirmed the proposed regulations previously issued in June 2023. - In April 2024, the U.S. Treasury Department and the IRS issued final regulations on the elective transfer provisions under Section 6418 of the IRC. The final regulations apply to taxable years ending on or after April 30, 2024, but taxpayers may choose to apply the rules in the final regulations in taxable years ending before April 30, 2024, provided the final regulations are applied in their entirety and in a consistent manner. The final regulations mostly adopted and confirmed the proposed regulations previously issued in June 2023. - In October 2024, the U.S. Treasury Department and the IRS issued final regulations on the Section 45X credit confirming key aspects of the credit, including (i) that a vertically-integrated solar module manufacturer is entitled to the sum of the credit amounts for each eligible component that is integrated into the solar module, (ii) the determination of the credit amounts based on standard test conditions, and (iii) the definition of a Section 45X manufacturing facility. Any modifications to the law or its effects arising, for example, through (i) technical guidance and regulations from the IRS and U.S. Treasury Department, including the certain aspects disclosed above, (ii) subsequent amendments to or interpretations of the law by the IRS, the U.S. Treasury Department, or the courts, (iii) future laws or regulations rendering certain provisions of the IRA less effective or ineffective, in whole or in part, and/or (iv) changes to U.S. government priorities, policies, and/or initiatives as a result of the current U.S. presidential administration and control of the U.S. Congress, could result in changes to the expected and/or actual benefits in the future, which could have a material adverse effect on demand and/or price levels for our solar modules, our net sales, and future expansion plans within the United States, and/or otherwise adversely impact our business, financial condition, and results of operations.
Risk Highlights Q4, 2025
Risk Word Cloud
Risk Factors Full Breakdown - Total Risks 34
- Regulation - Risk 1Our business is subject to evolving corporate governance and public disclosure regulations and expectations, including with respect to environmental, social, and governance matters, that could expose us to numerous risks.
Companies across many industries are facing increasing scrutiny related to their environmental, social and governance ("ESG") practices. Investor advocacy groups, certain institutional investors, investment funds and other influential investors may also be focused on ESG practices and in recent years have placed increasing importance on the non-financial impacts of their investments. While our vision is to lead the world's sustainable energy future through solar technology that is eco-efficient and socially responsible, if our ESG practices do not meet investor or other industry stakeholder expectations, which continue to evolve, we may incur additional costs and our brand, business, and ability to attract and retain qualified employees may be harmed. Furthermore, customer, investor, regulatory, and employee expectations in areas such as corporate responsibility have been rapidly evolving. Certain government agencies and regulators are considering rules requiring the disclosure of certain ESG matters, and we may be subject to those disclosure requirements. For example, in California, the Climate Corporate Data Accountability Act, and the Climate-Related Financial Risk Act each impose climate-related reporting requirements on large companies conducting business in the state of California, and we expect we will be subject to these new laws. Our ability to compete and to meet investor or other industry stakeholder expectations also depends on effectively executing on our approach to responsible sourcing and supply chain due diligence. The enhanced stakeholder focus on ESG issues relating to First Solar requires the continuous monitoring of various and evolving standards and the associated reporting requirements. A failure to adequately meet regulatory requirements and stakeholder expectations or achieve our corporate responsibility-related goals may result in the loss of business, diluted market valuation, an inability to attract customers, or an inability to attract and retain top talent. As of the date of this filing, we have made several public commitments regarding our intended reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and operating a responsible supply chain with zero tolerance for forced labor. Although we intend to meet these commitments and deliver on our greenhouse gas emissions reduction and renewable energy targets, we may be required to expend significant resources to do so, which could increase our operational costs. Our ESG initiatives could be unsuccessful for various reasons, including due to our growing manufacturing footprint, the lack of offsite renewable energy options in certain jurisdictions, and violations by our suppliers of applicable laws, regulations, and our Supplier Code of Conduct. Given the dynamic nature of ESG standards, expectations, and regulations, which may change over time, we may from time to time need to update or otherwise revise our current targets, practices, and initiatives, including in response to legislative or legal developments. Any actual or perceived inability to meet these commitments and/or deliver on our targets could result in adverse publicity and reactions from investors, activist groups, and other stakeholders, which could adversely impact the perception of First Solar and our products and services by current and potential customers, as well as investors, which could in turn adversely impact our results of operations.
- Regulation - Risk 2We could be adversely affected by any violations of the FCPA, the U.K. Bribery Act, and other foreign anti-bribery laws.
The FCPA generally prohibits companies and their intermediaries from making improper payments to non-U.S. government officials for the purpose of obtaining or retaining business. Other countries in which we operate also have anti-bribery laws, some of which prohibit improper payments to government and non-government persons and entities, and others (e.g., the FCPA and the U.K. Bribery Act) extend their application to activities outside their country of origin. Our policies mandate compliance with all applicable anti-bribery laws. We currently operate in, and may further expand into, key parts of the world that have experienced governmental corruption to some degree and, in certain circumstances, strict compliance with anti-bribery laws may conflict with local customs and practices. In addition, due to the level of regulation in our industry, our operations in certain jurisdictions where norms can differ from U.S. standards may require substantial government contact, either directly by us or through intermediaries over whom we have less direct control, such as subcontractors, agents, and partners (such as joint venture partners). Although we have implemented policies, procedures, and, in certain cases, contractual arrangements designed to facilitate compliance with these anti-bribery laws, our officers, directors, associates, subcontractors, agents, and partners may take actions in violation of our policies, procedures, contractual arrangements, and anti-bribery laws. Any such violation, even if prohibited by our policies, could subject us and such persons to criminal and/or civil penalties or other sanctions potentially by government prosecutors from more than one country, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, cash flows, and reputation.
- Regulation - Risk 3Existing regulations and policies, changes thereto, and new regulations and policies may present technical, regulatory, and economic barriers to the purchase and use of PV solar products, which may significantly reduce demand for our modules.
The market for electricity generation products is heavily influenced by federal, state, local, and foreign government regulations and policies concerning the electric utility industry, as well as policies promulgated by electric utilities. These regulations and policies often relate to electricity pricing and interconnection of customer-owned electricity generation. In the United States and certain other countries, these regulations and policies have been modified in the past and may be modified again in the future, which could deter end-user purchases of PV solar products. For example, without a mandated regulatory exception for PV solar power systems, system owners are often charged interconnection or standby fees for putting distributed power generation on the electric utility grid. To the extent these interconnection standby fees are applicable to PV solar power systems, it is likely that they would increase the cost of such systems, which could make the systems less desirable, thereby adversely affecting our business, financial condition, and results of operations. Another example is the effect of governmental land-use planning policies and environmental policies on utility-scale PV solar development. The adoption of restrictive land-use designations or environmental regulations that proscribe or restrict the siting of utility-scale solar facilities could adversely affect the marginal cost of such development. Our modules are often subject to oversight and regulation in accordance with national and local ordinances relating to building codes, safety, environmental protection, and other matters, and tracking the requirements of individual jurisdictions is complex. Any new government regulations or utility policies pertaining to our modules may result in significant additional expenses to us or our customers and, as a result, could cause a significant reduction in demand for our products. In addition, any regulatory compliance failure could result in significant management distraction, unplanned costs, and/or reputational damage.
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