Waga Energy SA (WAGA) AI Stock Analysis

Waga Energy SA

(Paris:WAGA)

Select Model

Rating:46Neutral

Price Target:EUR 22.50▼(-0.44% Downside)

Action:reiterated

Date:08/10/26

The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance—ongoing losses, rising leverage, and very large negative free cash flow despite strong revenue growth. Technical signals are broadly neutral with slight positive momentum, offering limited support. Valuation is also pressured by negative earnings (negative P/E) and no dividend data provided.

Positive Factors

Revenue ScalingSustained top-line growth from 9.5m to 59.6m over five years indicates durable commercial traction for Waga's RNG projects. This scale supports customer validation, improves project economics over time and creates a larger base for recurring biomethane sales and environmental-attribute monetization.

Negative Factors

Persistent Losses & Weak MarginsOngoing losses and weak margins show the business has not yet converted revenue growth into sustainable profitability. Persistently negative returns limit reinvestment capacity, pressure equity returns, and make long-term viability dependent on margin improvement or ongoing external funding.

Waga Energy SA (WAGA) vs. iShares MSCI France ETF (EWQ)

Market Cap: EUR 604.35M
Dividend Yield: ―
Average Volume (3M): 712
Price to Earnings (P/E): -20.2
Beta (1Y): 0.15
Revenue Growth: 7.14%
EPS Growth: -65.98%
Country: France
Employees: 296
Sector: General
Sector Strength: 55
Industry: Industrial - Machinery

Waga Energy SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Waga Energy S.A. is dedicated to engineering, building, and managing projects that capture, refine, and inject landfill gas into the energy grid. The company's flagship product is WAGABOX, a unique purification system that transforms landfill gas int...

How the Company Makes Money

Waga Energy makes money by monetizing renewable natural gas produced from landfill gas upgrading projects. Its revenue model is primarily tied to (1) selling biomethane/RNG injected into gas grids under long-term offtake arrangements (with pricing ty...

Waga Energy SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue scaling (9.5m in 2020 to 59.6m in 2025) is a key positive, but the company remains consistently loss-making with weak margins. Leverage has risen materially (debt to equity ~2.0x in 2025), and free cash flow is deeply negative (-114.7m in 2025), indicating elevated financing and execution risk despite positive operating cash flow in 2025.

Income Statement

23Negative

Balance Sheet

34Negative

Cash Flow

18Very Negative

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	59.60M	59.60M	55.70M	33.26M	19.16M	12.26M
Gross Profit	505.00K	505.00K	-3.43M	14.32M	11.61M	7.25M
EBITDA	-1.64M	-1.64M	-3.40M	-6.67M	-5.25M	-2.36M
Net Income	-30.32M	-30.32M	-17.58M	-15.99M	-10.07M	-8.06M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	403.91M	403.91M	295.02M	194.58M	189.17M	169.56M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	60.34M	60.34M	68.30M	40.27M	91.66M	122.91M
Total Debt	222.06M	222.06M	115.10M	60.76M	49.55M	38.25M
Total Liabilities	273.17M	273.17M	160.93M	96.71M	77.15M	51.97M
Stockholders Equity	110.34M	110.34M	131.23M	95.15M	109.11M	115.91M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-112.45M	-114.65M	-71.21M	-62.08M	-48.33M	-14.02M
Operating Cash Flow	5.75M	3.55M	-9.75M	-12.92M	-7.39M	-952.00K
Investing Cash Flow	-113.46M	-113.46M	-56.53M	-45.01M	-36.98M	-13.98M
Financing Cash Flow	103.09M	103.09M	95.85M	4.97M	13.02M	121.72M

Waga Energy SA Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNeutral

Last Price22.60

Price Trends

50DMA22.75Negative

100DMA22.96Negative

200DMA22.96Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-0.06Negative

RSI51.84Neutral

STOCH71.98Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FR:WAGA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 22.60 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.27, below the 50-day MA of 22.75, and below the 200-day MA of 22.96, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for FR:WAGA.

Waga Energy SA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (55)

Financial Indicators

FR:WAGA against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FR:MTU	67Neutral	EUR 756.20M	8.67	8.83%	3.80%	7.68%	19.52%
FR:SU	66Neutral	EUR 140.06B	28.21	19.47%	1.77%	6.93%	9.95%
FR:ALPM	63Neutral	EUR 114.08M	11.72	9.51%	2.61%	0.05%	0.42%
Sector *	55Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%
FR:WAGA	46Neutral	EUR 605.27M	-20.18	―	―	7.14%	-65.98%

* General Sector Average

Performance Comparison

FR:WAGA and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
FR:WAGA	Waga Energy SA	22.60	0.40	1.80%
FR:MTU	Manitou BF	19.76	2.91	17.26%
FR:ALPM	Precia SA	21.10	-8.14	-27.85%
FR:SU	Schneider Electric SE (UK)	237.50	-3.09	-1.28%
FR:ALENO	Enogia SAS	5.34	1.03	23.90%

Waga Energy SA Corporate Events

Waga Energy seals €128m Green Loan to speed European RNG rollout

Jul 23, 2026

Waga Energy has secured a €128 million structured Green Loan with a 10-year maturity to support the expansion of its landfill-based renewable natural gas operations across Europe. The financing, arranged with a consortium of major banks, will r...

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 10, 2026

Waga Energy SA AI Stock Analysis