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BNP Paribas (BNP) AI Stock Analysis

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FR:BNP

BNP Paribas

(Paris:BNP)

Select Model
Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:EUR 94.00â–²(9.75% Upside)
Action:upgraded
Date:08/06/26

The score is driven mainly by solid profitability but constrained by higher leverage and highly variable cash flows. Technicals are constructive with a strong trend, though overbought signals raise near-term pullback risk. Valuation is a key positive, supported by a low P/E and a high dividend yield.

Positive Factors
Diversified banking franchiseBNP Paribas operates across multiple client groups and financial-services activities, including deposits, lending, payments, capital markets, securities services, insurance and asset management. This breadth supports revenue diversification and reduces reliance on one business line over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
High and rising leverageLeverage has increased materially from 2022 levels, leaving the balance sheet more sensitive to funding conditions and credit-cycle stress. Higher debt relative to equity can reduce financial flexibility and make earnings and capital resilience more dependent on stable financing conditions.

BNP Paribas (BNP) vs. iShares MSCI France ETF (EWQ)

-20%0%20%40%60%80%FR:BNP+38.07%EWQ-1.36%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
EUR 94.61B
Dividend Yield
6.77%
Average Volume (3M)
2.10M
Price to Earnings (P/E)
8.9
Beta (1Y)
1.40
Revenue Growth
7.57%
EPS Growth
22.65%
Country
France
Employees
180,000
Sector
General
Sector Strength
55
Industry
Banks - Regional

BNP Paribas Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BNP Paribas SA operates as a global financial services powerhouse, delivering a comprehensive array of banking solutions throughout Europe, North America, Asia Pacific, and other international markets. Its corporate and institutional division caters...

How the Company Makes Money

BNP Paribas generates revenue primarily by providing banking and financial services across multiple business lines. A major source is net interest income: it earns interest on loans (e.g., consumer, mortgage, corporate, and structured financing) and...

BNP Paribas Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability is solid and fairly steady (net income around €9.5–€11.7B from 2021–2025), but the risk profile is held back by meaningfully higher leverage versus 2022 (debt-to-equity ~5.4x–6.4x in 2023–2025) and pronounced cash-flow volatility (deeply negative operating/free cash flow in 2023–2024 followed by a rebound in 2025).

Income Statement

74Positive

Balance Sheet

58Neutral

Cash Flow

45Neutral
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue152.34B144.38B153.52B140.64B100.88B109.95B
Gross Profit101.82B90.89B87.12B77.25B77.89B96.89B
EBITDA21.69B24.34B22.76B17.38B14.86B14.59B
Net Income13.58B12.22B11.69B10.97B9.85B9.47B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.08T2.79T2.70T2.59T2.67T2.63T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments213.00B326.96B786.01B296.61B474.92B484.27B
Total Debt855.99B809.21B727.82B673.44B293.98B718.22B
Total Liabilities2.96T2.66T2.57T2.46T2.55T2.52T
Stockholders Equity120.06B125.51B128.14B123.74B121.24B117.89B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow14.21B43.70B-99.51B-36.46B21.28B26.18B
Operating Cash Flow17.22B46.57B-97.38B-34.24B23.81B27.84B
Investing Cash Flow18.31B-6.06B-180.00M7.30B-78.81B13.35B
Financing Cash Flow-12.00B-6.82B-6.42B-4.68B9.25B14.52B

BNP Paribas Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price85.65

Price Trends

50DMA94.62Negative
100DMA98.25Negative
200DMA91.69Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-2.65Negative
RSI37.02Neutral
STOCH69.44Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FR:BNP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 85.65 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 88.35, below the 50-day MA of 94.62, and below the 200-day MA of 91.69, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.65 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 37.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FR:BNP.

BNP Paribas Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)

Financial Indicators

FR:BNP against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
FR:GLEFR:GLE77OutperformEUR 43.89B8.0311.25%2.87%8.58%20.72%
FR:ACAFR:ACA75OutperformEUR 45.34B7.429.43%11.34%-0.91%-10.42%
FR:BNPFR:BNP70OutperformEUR 94.61B8.928.80%6.77%7.57%22.65%
FR:CAFFR:CAF65NeutralEUR 685.01M9.222.86%3.01%-4.60%22.52%
Sector *55Neutral$6.65B3.83-15.92%6.20%10.91%7.18%

* General Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-20%0%20%40%60%FR:BNPFR:CAFFR:CNDFFR:ACAFR:GLEFR:MLCFMDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
FR:BNP and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
FR:BNPBNP Paribas SA (UK)85.6523.6238.07%
FR:CAFCRCAM dlle-de France86.18-20.25-19.02%
FR:CNDFCRCAM Nord de France23.36-3.31-12.40%
FR:ACACredit Agricole SA (UK)14.990.946.71%
FR:GLESociete Generale (UK)60.997.6114.25%
FR:MLCFMCFM Indosuez Wealth SA1500.00232.9218.38%

BNP Paribas Corporate Events

BNP Paribas Capital Requirements Rise Modestly Under 2026 ECB SREP

Oct 29, 2026

BNP Paribas has received its 2026 Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process decision from the European Central Bank, setting updated capital and leverage requirements for the group from 1 January 2027 under a new SSM methodology. The Pillar 2 Require...

BNP Paribas Files Third Amendment to 2025 Universal Registration Document

Oct 28, 2026

BNP Paribas has released the third amendment to the English version of its 2025 Universal Registration Document and Annual Financial Report, reflecting updated regulatory or disclosure information. The amended document, filed with the French markets...

BNP Paribas Launches EUR 1.3 Billion Share Buyback Programme

Oct 28, 2026

BNP Paribas has received European Central Bank approval to launch a share buyback programme linked to its 2026 financial year results, with a maximum amount of EUR 1.3 billion. The repurchased shares, which will be acquired by an investment services...

BNP Paribas Discloses Updated Share Capital and Voting Rights

Oct 6, 2026

BNP Paribas reported that as of 30 September 2026 its share capital consists of 1,101,600,607 shares, each carrying one voting right, resulting in a total of 1,101,600,607 voting rights. This disclosure, made in line with French commercial and market...

BNP Paribas Reports Share Capital and Voting Rights Structure as of August 2026

Sep 3, 2026

BNP Paribas has disclosed its capital structure and voting rights, reporting a share capital composed of 1,101,600,607 shares as of 31 August 2026. The total number of voting rights is equal to the number of shares, indicating a one-share, one-vote s...

BNP Paribas Challenges Trial Court Ruling in Sudan Litigation Under Swiss Law

Aug 30, 2026

BNP Paribas, a leading European banking group, offers retail and corporate banking as well as investment and financial services across multiple jurisdictions, including Switzerland and the wider European market. Its operations are closely tied to Eur...

BNP Paribas Challenges Trial Court Ruling in Sudan-Related Case

Aug 23, 2026

BNP Paribas has issued a statement asserting that a trial court in the Sudan-related litigation misapplied Swiss law, committed significant legal errors, and disregarded key evidence indicating that the challenged transactions were permitted under Sw...

BNP Paribas Publishes Second Amendment to 2025 Registration Document and Annual Report

Aug 5, 2026

BNP Paribas has published the second amendment to its Universal Registration Document and the French version of its 2025 annual financial report. The updated filing, registered with the Autorité des Marchés Financiers under number D.26-0112...

BNP Paribas Updates Market on Share Capital and Voting Rights Structure

Aug 4, 2026

BNP Paribas announced that its share capital consists of 1,101,600,607 shares as of 31 July 2026, each conferring one voting right, resulting in a total of 1,101,600,607 voting rights. This disclosure, made in accordance with French commercial and ma...

Arval’s Athlon Deal Elevates BNP Paribas in European Vehicle Leasing

Jul 31, 2026

Arval, BNP Paribas’s long-term vehicle leasing and mobility solutions specialist, has completed the acquisition of Athlon, formerly part of Mercedes-Benz Group, on the previously announced timetable. The deal lifts Arval’s combined fleet...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 06, 2026