Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMAO) Risk Analysis

Like all financial institutions, we maintain an allowance for credit losses to provide for loan defaults and non-performance. Our allowance for credit losses is based on our historical loss experience and forward-looking data as well as an evaluation of the risks associated with our loan portfolio, including the size and composition of the loan portfolio, current economic conditions and concentrations within the portfolio. The determination of the appropriate level of the allowance for credit losses inherently involves a high degree of subjectivity and requires us to make significant estimates of current credit risks and future trends, all of which may undergo material changes. Economic conditions affecting borrowers, new information regarding existing loans, identification of additional problem loans and other factors, both within and outside of our control, may require an increase in the allowance for credit losses. In addition, bank regulatory agencies periodically review our allowance for credit losses and may require an increase in the provision for credit losses or the recognition of further loan charge-offs, based on judgments different than those of management. In addition, if charge-offs in future periods exceed expectations, we will need additional provisions to increase the allowance for credit losses. Any increases in the allowance for credit losses may result in a decrease in net income and capital and may have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations. The Company accounts for the allowance for credit losses in accordance with ASU 2016-13, "Financial Instruments - Credit Losses (Topic 326), Measurement of Credit Losses on Financial Instruments," which utilizes an "expected loss" model referred to as the Current Expected Credit Loss model, or "CECL." Under the CECL model, we are required to present certain financial assets carried at amortized cost, such as loans held for investment and held-to-maturity debt securities, at the net amount expected to be collected. The measurement of expected credit losses is based on information about past events, including historical experience, current conditions, and reasonable and supportable forecasts that affect the collectability of the reported amount. This measurement takes place at the time the financial asset is first added to the balance sheet and periodically thereafter. If we are required to increase our level of allowance for credit losses for any reason, such increase could adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations. Please see Note 1 in the notes to consolidated financial statements for additional information.

Consumer credit performance is normalizing from historically strong conditions, reflecting higher interest rates, elevated prices, and reduced savings. Deterioration in borrower cash flows, labor-market weakness, or persistent inflation could increase delinquencies and charge-offs in our retail portfolios, including unsecured consumer loans. Higher loss emergence would increase our allowance for credit losses under CECL, potentially leading to earnings volatility, elevated provision levels and slower loan growth.

Evolving federal and state scrutiny of account onboarding, offboarding, and access to banking services-often referred to as "debanking" or "fair access"-could increase our compliance, legal, and reputational risks. Policymakers and regulators are reconsidering the role of "reputation risk" in supervision and adopting laws that limit account decisions based on perceived political or non-risk factors. These measures may conflict with each other or with our obligations under existing law. Supervisory expectations emphasizing individualized, risk-based decisions and enhanced documentation may require policy and system changes and greater resources. We could face criticism or penalties if regulators find our account actions insufficiently supported or discriminatory, or if we must maintain accounts beyond our risk appetite. Conflicting standards and rising public attention to alleged "debanking" may increase complaint volume, compliance costs, and reputational exposure. Any of these developments could materially affect our business, financial condition, or results of operations.

Provisions of our Articles of Incorporation and Ohio law could have the effect of discouraging takeover attempts which certain stockholders might deem to be in their interest. These anti-takeover provisions may make us a less attractive target for a takeover bid or merger, potentially depriving shareholders of an opportunity to sell their shares of common stock at a premium over prevailing market prices as a result of a takeover bid or merger.

As a result of inflationary pressures and the resulting rapid increases in interest rates over the prior two fiscal years, the trading value of previously issued government and other fixed income securities has declined significantly. These securities make up a majority of the securities portfolio of most banks in the U.S., including the Company's, resulting in unrealized losses embedded in the available-for-sale portion of U.S. banks' securities portfolios. While the Company does not currently intend to sell these securities, if the Company were required to sell such securities to meet liquidity needs, it may incur losses, which could impair the Company's capital, financial condition, and results of operations and require the Company to raise additional capital on unfavorable terms, thereby negatively impacting its profitability. While the Company has taken actions to maximize its funding sources, there is no guarantee that such actions will be successful or sufficient in the event of sudden liquidity needs.

Changes in interest rates affect our operating performance and financial condition in diverse ways. Our profitability depends in substantial part on our "net interest spread," which is the difference between the rates we receive on loans and investments and the rates we pay for deposits and other sources of funds. Our net interest spread will depend on many factors that are partly or entirely outside our control, including competition, federal economic, monetary and fiscal policies, and economic conditions generally. Net interest spreads have widened and narrowed in response to these and other factors, which are often collectively referred to as "interest rate risk." The Federal Reserve began increasing the Federal Funds rate in 2022 and continued into 2023 in an effort to tame inflation. These rate increases totaling 550 basis points have negatively impacted our interest spread. Beginning in September of 2024, the Federal Reserve began decreasing the Federal Funds rate which totaled 100 basis points throughout the remainder of 2024 and 75 basis points in 2025. These rate decreases have increased our interest spread to 2.65% in 2025 from 2.05% in 2024. The Bank manages interest rate risk within an overall asset/liability management framework. The principal objectives of asset/liability management are to manage sensitivity of net interest spreads and net interest income to potential changes in interest rates. The Bank also utilizes the net interest margin to analyze the interest rate risk. While the net interest spread measures the asset yield compared to the cost of funds, the net interest margin is equivalent to net interest income divided by earning assets. Both net interest spread and net interest margin are presented in the interest charts within the Management's Discussion and Analysis on interest income and expense. Funding positions are kept within predetermined limits designed to ensure that risk-taking is not excessive and that liquidity is properly managed. In the event that our asset/liabilities management strategies are unsuccessful, our profitability may be adversely affected. For more information regarding the Company's exposure to interest rate risk, see Part II, Item 7A of this Form 10-K.

Our commercial loans are primarily made based on the identified cash flow of the borrower and secondarily on the underlying collateral provided by the borrower. Repayment of our commercial loans is often dependent on the cash flows of the borrower, which may be unpredictable. Most often, this collateral is accounts receivable, inventory, machinery or real estate. In the case of loans secured by accounts receivable, the availability of funds for the repayment of these loans may be substantially dependent on the ability of the borrower to collect amounts due from its customers. The other types of collateral securing these loans may depreciate over time, may be difficult to appraise, and may fluctuate in value based on the success of the business. We also originate agricultural operating loans. As with agricultural real estate loans, the repayment of operating loans is dependent on the successful operation or management of the farm property. Likewise, agricultural operating loans involve a greater degree of risk than lending on residential properties, particularly in the case of loans that are unsecured or secured by rapidly depreciating assets such as farm equipment or assets such as livestock or crops. The primary livestock in our market areas is hogs and beef calves. In these cases, any repossessed collateral for a defaulted loan may not provide an adequate source of repayment of the outstanding loan balance as a result of the greater likelihood of damage, loss or depreciation. The majority of our agricultural customers utilize crop insurance to mitigate the possibility of a large loss within one year on their grain operations. Crop insurance can be structured to be triggered by different factors and claim payment may also be customized, such as based on harvest yields or income generation. Farmers may also use hedging techniques to lock in crop prices and input costs for future production.

Real estate loans, which constitute a large portion of our loan portfolio, include home equity, agricultural, commercial, construction and residential loans, and such loans are concentrated in the Bank's primary markets in Northwest Ohio, Northeast Indiana and Southern Michigan and complimented with additional exposure in new areas from our LPOs. The market value of real estate can fluctuate significantly in a short period of time as a result of market conditions in the geographic area in which the real estate is located. Adverse developments affecting real estate values in our market could increase the credit risk associated with our loan portfolio. Also, real estate lending typically involves higher loan principal amounts and the repayment of the loans generally is dependent, in large part, on sufficient income from the properties securing the loans to cover operating expenses and debt service. Economic events or governmental regulations outside of the control of the borrower could negatively impact the future cash flow and market values of the affected properties. If the loans that are collateralized by real estate become troubled during a time when market conditions are declining or have declined, then we may not be able to realize the amount of security that we anticipated at the time of originating the loan, which could cause us to increase our provision for credit losses and adversely affect our operating results and financial condition. Our real estate loans also include construction loans, including land acquisition and development. Construction, land acquisition and development lending involve additional risks because funds are advanced based upon estimates of costs and the estimated value of the completed project. Because of the uncertainties inherent in estimating construction costs, as well as the market value of the completed project and the effects of governmental regulation on real property, it is relatively difficult to evaluate accurately the total funds required to complete a project and the related loan-to-value ratio. As a result, commercial construction loans often involve the disbursement of substantial funds with repayment dependent, in part, on the success of the ultimate project and the ability of the borrower to sell or lease the property, rather than the ability of the borrower or guarantor to repay principal and interest. If our appraisal of the value of the completed project proves to be overstated, we may have inadequate security for the repayment of the loan upon completion of construction of the project. Payments on agricultural real estate loans are dependent on the profitable operation or management of the farm property securing the loan. The success of the farm may be affected by many factors outside the control of the borrower, including adverse weather conditions that prevent the planting of a crop or limit crop yields (such as hail, drought and floods), loss of livestock due to disease or other factors, declines in market prices for agricultural products (both domestically and internationally) and the impact of government regulations (including changes in price supports, subsidies and environmental regulations). In addition, many farms are dependent on a limited number of key individuals whose injury or death may significantly affect the successful operation of the farm. If the cash flow from a farming operation is diminished, the borrower's ability to repay the loan may be impaired. The primary crops in our market areas are corn, wheat and soybeans. Accordingly, adverse circumstances affecting these crops could have an adverse effect on our agricultural real estate loan portfolio segment.